SoxFanForsyth

I do recall Lucchino saying they are going to move their prospects at a faster pace. This is a chance for him to walk the talk. I would be ok with a lineup going into next season of: Ellsbury (CF) Bradley Jr (LF) Pedroia (2B) Ortiz (DH) Middlebrooks (3B) Belt (1B) Bogaerts (SS) Brentz (RF) Lavarnway © That actually would be a pretty solid lineup. It would also be extremely cheap, and the Sox could really do a lot of damage on the SP. That'd give them around $65-75mm to spend on pitching. Obviously they wouldn't spend all of it, but they certainly could go out and take on a full contract of Cliff Lee and sign Dan Haren/Jake Peavy. Potentially both if they wanted. And also bolster the bullpen by signing Broxton or League.

I only saw 1 sig bet, between you and BTR. Once you guys started talking about it, I bailed. If I'm wrong, feel free to show me the post, I just didn't see it.

What I'm saying is that if the media affected those guys, it will certainly affect Grienke. If he's got an anxiety disorder, he won't do well in big markets. And if it got out to the media, it's pretty legit, that stuff stays under wraps for the most part. What was our sig bet again?? I tried to forget everything about last season.

Oh Coco....

Jung - The discussion isn't about whether or not Gonzo was a good fit. It's about whether or not the media would affect Grienke, who has an anxiety problem. It already affected Gonzalez and Crawford, who don't have anxiety problems. I don't think it's a question about whether it would affect Grienke.

Outside the box (bored) thinking. What if the Sox brought Bogaerts up in about June from AA, and also traded for Brandon Belt? I would love an infield of Belt - Pedroia - Bogaerts - Middlebrooks. That's a long term infield right there. The outfield, however, is another situation, but that would certainly be a step in the right direction.

How many times did he do that in San Diego? Like I said. The Boston media can crush players. It crushed Gonzo. It crushed Crawford. It will crush Grienke.

Another guy I'd like the Sox to check in on is Brandon Belt. I'm not sure the Giants are 100% sold on him. He's another under-the-radar kind of guy who the Sox could target and really could be a monster. He only hit 7 HR this year (9 last year), but he's got a nice oppo field swing that could work well in Boston, depending on the loft he gets. He was the #23 prospect going into 2011 (lost eligibility after that season). He's only 24 this year, and has plenty of time to mature. His numbers in the minors are an astounding .343/.457/.596, but in the bigs a mediocre .259/.344/.418. At least a guy worth checking into.

Here is Gonzo's quote: "What took my power away was the Green Monster," he said of the 37-foot wall at Boston's Fenway Park, also according to the Times. "I used to hit line drives and they would be doubles. That took away five home runs from me last year. So I would have 32." The media gets to these guys. Believe it or not, the media is a factor. And for a guy like Grienke, it would not work out here. Not with the constant microscopic focus on every facet of his game.

Exactly. He got grilled for not hitting many HR last season, and then went into this season with a different approach. He talked about it quite a bit. Even started counting balls that would have been HR in places outside of Boston because of the Monster. If you don't think that got in his head, you're crazy. Be it the fans or the media, or more likely, a combination of both, it got to him. And his power wouldn't just reappear because his swing mechanics were extremely out of sorts all year long because he was trying to do too much, put more loft on the ball, etc, and it took him out of his comfort zone. That's all a result of a big media outlet putting ideas in his head.

You're getting an elite, elite SS and middle of the order bat for less than $16mm AAV. I don't understand how someone can be against this.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/?page_id=125 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/rockies-tulowitzki-nearing-ten-year-extension.html http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_lemire/11/30/tulowitzki.contract/index.html Hm. I'd say it's 10/$157. To be clear, it was 3/$33mm originally, then the extension makes it a 10/154 contract. And for AAV purposes (i.e. luxury tax), it's calculated together.

Well, I guess with the depth the Red Sox have at SS going forward (Marrero, Bogaerts, Vinicio, Iglesias), it wouldn't be the most productive thing to have a SS locked up for the next 8 years. But at the same time, none of those outside of Bogaerts will even get close to Tulo's caliber, and it makes players like Marrero, etc expendable.

Tell that to Crawford and Gonzalez, both of which pressed and/or changed their game because of what they judged the public perception to be. Why did they believe this was the public perception? Because the media constantly asked them about it. So what happens when Grienke starts out slow and the media starts asking "Is it because you are making so much money now?" and "Do you think you're trying to pitch to contact too much?", etc. Just like they asked Gonzalez why he wasn't hitting very many HR last year (2011), and he went into 2012 trying to hit more HR and it crushed his swing.

The premium the Sox would get in acquiring Tulo at SS is much greater than they would get in acquiring a 1B. Especially since there are players like Napoli who are available to sign via FA. The SP, we agree on. But don't sell the farm for a 1B. Trade for one via Ells + Cecchini, or the such, fine (for a guy like Trumbo). But not any of the top tier prospects.

Not to mention it's at an absolute premium position. The average AL Shortstop in 2012 hit .253/.305/.366. That's a .671 OPS. Tulo has a career .868 OPS, and over the past 4 seasons, has posted a .922 OPS. If you're going to spend big money on a player, don't you think a guy who outperforms the average shortstop by almost 300 points in OPS?

Do you even know what Tulo's contract is?? It's 10/$157mm. It goes through the age of 35. It's not as large as you make it seem. Especially not for a perennial power hitting all star SS who finished in the top 10 in MVP in 3 of the last 4 years and has won GG's in 3 of the last 4 years.

A bit from a Pete Abraham article on September 13th that I'm shocked hasn't been brought up (or maybe I just haven't seen it brought up): Now, the Rockies have said that they wouldn't want to trade Tulo for SP because SP in Colorado is so volatile. Not sure if they'd change their mind or not. Regardless, that's a deal that the Red Sox have to not only look into, but explore every reasonable avenue to get it done, be it a three-way deal or anything. For Tulo, the only player I would make off-limits is probably Bogaerts.

Well, to be fair, Lester isn't a 4.82 ERA pitcher, Buchholz isn't a 4.56 ERA pitcher, and the Sox will certainly get two pitchers who outperform Cook/DiceK/Bard/Beckett. So just with those alone, the Sox are probably an 81 win team.

With guys like Sandy Alomar, Jason Varitek, and Ryne Sandburg all available for no compensation, the Sox would be dumb to pay anything above a guy like Chris Carpenter for Farrell.

I said Ells + Cecchini first off. Second off, Trumbo has a career .780 OPS. He has had 1 season with an OPS over .800 (this year) and it was .808, not like it was .970. He's essentially in the class of guys like Justin Morneau, Freddie Freeman, Mark Teixeira, etc. Not vintage Tex. Old Tex. Getting a .305/.394/.433 guy who stole 50 bags and was a top 100 prospect per both FG and Keith Law along with Jacoby Ellsbury would be a solid deal in return for Trumbo, who, by the way, is hitting pretty consistent with his career numbers in the minors (.804 OPS), and never made a top 100 listing. The league average OPS for 1st basemen last year was .777. It was .791 in the AL in 2011, .801 in the NL in 2011. In 2010, the league average 1B hit to a .812 OPS (NL), putting Trumbo's current season below league average. So, overall, you're getting a slightly above league average 1B who has a swing that is perfect for Fenway. His numbers would be monstrous at Fenway, no doubt. But in terms of his value as is, playing in LA? It's not nearly as high as you try make it sound. Ellsbury + Cecchini would be a good deal for him.

I think a lot of people here are skiddish about spending money again, which is understandable, but you also have to understand that this isn't the Rays or the Royals. This didn't just morph into a small market team. The Sox are going into next season with $45mm locked in. Approximate $30mm in arbitration, and $20mm to Ross and Ortiz, and you're still at $95mm going into next year. There's a difference between pissing the money away and spending a lot of money on quality deals. Giving Dan Haren a 1 year/$15mm deal is not pissing money away. Trading for Cliff Lee to lead your staff for the next 3 years for $25mm/year is not pissing money away. Signing Josh Hamilton to a 7 year/$140mm deal IS pissing money away. But the Red Sox are certainly not going to go into next season with the same rotation, the same lineup, and the same bullpen that they had in September, 2012. Not by any means. And not close. The Sox WILL spend money. They will still be aggressive in their approach to free agency. They will be more disciplined in terms of their valuation of players, especially in the length of the contract. But this is NOT a $90mm team. They will be around $140-$150mm next year. Which means they will acquire ~$45-$55mm in payroll via FA and trades (after Ross and Ortiz).

Yeah that was an overpay, you're right. However, Ells + Cecchini would be more like it. I didn't realize that Trumbo only had an .838 OPS this year and is going to be 27 next year. I thought he was still around 24-25 and posted a .900+ OPS this season. Regardless, I still see him as a big time target this offseason. Again, if there is 1 piece that this team needs and is missing in terms of minor league prospects, it's 1B. With Barnes/Webster/De La Rosa/Owens, there is a lot of high caliber pitching prospects. With Cecchini, Bogaerts, Marrero, we have infield depth. Brentz/Kalish/JBJ, we have OF depth. We have no 1B depth. A move needs to be made to bring in a long term solution like Trumbo.

No chance this happens. Nobody wants Hamilton or Greinke. Everyone wants players on short term deals (i.e. Haren on a 1-2 year deal, pillow contract likely) and then go out and get a proven vet like James Shields and sign him to a 5 year deal. It's not bad to have 1-2 players on long term deals to stay competitive while your youth matures and gets ready for the bigs. You don't just punt the season to see what some players can do. You create a hybrid of the two. Sign some players to 5 year deals, most to 1-2 year deals, and all other players are home grown or trades.

They can get a hell of a lot more back for him than they can from Morales, and they are carrying 3 1B right now. Pujols has 1B locked down for 10 years, so essentially they have Trumbo and Morales either playing out of position or DH'ing. They would be wasting an asset by throwing Trumbo in LF or at DH, so it makes sense for them to trade him for a need (i.e 3B, Cecchini) and then go sign a player to be their DH.