SoxFanForsyth

Brentz Smoak Lavarnway is a black hole? Brentz is on almost the exact same path as Middlebrooks was. He played about a month of AAA at the end of the season. Try to pay attention. He's very close to being the same player as WMB. Smoak is a switch hitter who was a top 15 prospect not long ago, and has been playing in Seattle over the past 2 years which have completely suppressed his stats. Lavarnway has a career .295/.382/.511 AAA line, and is a consistently high OBP guy who can hit for 20+ HR. Not sure how that's a black hole. Bradley Jr. had a .430 OBP this year. He can certainly be a .270/.360/.400 guy next year at the MLB level. Have you been paying attention to the Red Sox farm at all? Doesn't seem like it. Lincecum is a much better pitcher than he showed this year. Players have track records. This was an aberration season for Lincecum. Have a look at his career stats man. Not to mention he's been dominant in the post season. And Tulo? You think the Rockies, who are completely in rebuild mode, wouldn't want to dumb 8 years/$140mm?? And get an elite prospect in return along with a catcher who, oh by the way, has been compared to Buster Posey? I mean at least try to have a little bit to back up your opinion

how?

Which he would never, ever, ever agree too. It's a pipe dream.

So, I'll kick it off. Move 1: Sign Dan Haren to a 1 year, $14.5mm deal. Move 2: Trade Felix Doubront, Daniel Bard, and Garin Cecchini to the Giants for Tim Lincecum. Lincecum has had an awful season, and has 1 year left on his deal for ~ $20mm. The Giants will certainly listen on him, especially if they're getting a couple cost controlled guys like Doubront and Cecchini in return, plus a guy (like Lincecum) who is coming off a down year but has elite talent. Move 3: Trade Drake Britton and Frank Montas to the Mariners for Justin Smoak. He is a prime change of scenery guy, and can be had for pretty cheap. The Mariners are clearly not sold on him because they were shopping for young first baseman earlier (asking for Brandon Belt in return for League). I think Smoak still has a ton of talent, and he could be a prime buy low candidate. Not to mention, he's under club control for a while. Move 4: Mix in the youngsters. Bryce Brentz and Jackie Bradley Jr. both start the season in Boston. Move 5: Sign Jonathan Broxton and Brandon League. Really tidy up the back end of this bullpen. Move 6: Trade Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Jose Iglesias for Troy Tulowitzki. Rotation: Tim Lincecum Dan Haren Clay Buchholz Jon Lester John Lackey Bullpen: Tazawa De La Rosa Breslow Miller League Broxton Bailey Lineup: Ellsbury (CF) Bradley Jr (RF) Pedroia (2B) Tulowitzki (SS) Ortiz (DH) Middlebrooks (3B) Brentz (LF) Smoak (1B) Lavarnway © The Sox would be getting rid of prospects: Garin Cecchini, Drake Britton, Frank Montas, Xander Bogaerts, Blake Swihart, and Chris Hernadez. However, the Sox would be acquiring a magnitude of talent, and would be retaining most of their elite talent (De La Rosa, Barnes, Webster, Bradley, Brentz, Owens). I know it would really, really, really suck to have to get rid of Bogaerts, but let's think about this for a second. In a dream land, what would be our wish for Bogaerts? A 30+ HR, .300 hitter with Gold Glove defense? Well, if you can get that guaranteed, you make the deal. Again, this is a deal that I'm not 100% on, but if we traded Bogaerts and it netted us Tulo, I'd be ok with it.

I am curious, though. What is everyone's optimal lineup going into next season? Realistically speaking, rotation, bullpen, and lineup? What moves do you think the Sox make to acquire the players too? I know this is kind of repeating what this thread already is, but I'd like to see some projected lineups.

After giving up the prospects for Infante and Sanchez, I'd be shocked if the Tigers didn't pay him. That's too much to give up for a rental. Having said that, I am not interested. There are better options out there IMO. When they Yankees aren't playing like the September Red Sox, they would have destroyed him. I don't think he'd be a good fit in the AL East.

Certainly the main problem is SP, but at the same time you don't want to neglect other positions just because there are other problems as well. I don't think the Sox need to necessarily acquire a SS, but at the same time if Tulo is available, you go out and you acquire him because he's literally the player that you pray some of these prospects turn into.

I hope it's not Derek Holland. I'd much rather have Ellsbury than Holland.

The only thing they can do is put a clause in there that if he misses a significant amount of time due to rehab from a relapse, then the contract becomes non-guaranteed. But they certainly cannot put a clause in there regarding alcohol. Drugs, perhaps, because it's illegal. But you can't take his rights away while he's not playing, and certainly not if it doesn't affect his attendance in games.

Here's a question I hope the FO considers. What would be Bogaert's floor going into this season, if he was playing at the MLB level? Maybe a line of .220/.280/.400? What would Iglesias's ceiling be going into this season, playing everyday? Around the same line? So why not give Bogaerts the opening day job? They need to be aggressive in some areas, and that would be one area they could be aggressive in their approach. Not to mention, Bogaerts could be a .260/.320/.440 hitter this year with around 15-20 HR at the MLB level, and at the age of 21 (that'd likely be his ceiling this year). So if he came in around the mid point, would anyone be upset with the future SS hitting .240/.300/.420 with around 12 HR in your 9 hole??

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Umpire-Tim-McClelland-makes-the-worst-call-of-al?urn=mlb,197210 http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/0805/biggest.no.calls/content.11.html http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/After-Phil-Cuzzi-s-blown-call-MLB-needs-to-put-?urn=mlb,195187 Notice a trend on which team is favored in all of these calls?? The Yankees deserve a few horribly blown calls.

He will never, ever sign that. Ever. It's not like he's going to have zero options. Hell, if the Yankees offered him 5/$120, the Sox could offer him 4/$100 without the clause and get him. He's not going to sign a stipulation like that, no chance. And the players union wouldn't allow it either. Outside of drugs, a team can't tell it's players what they can and can't do outside of "working hours."

Just because fans don't want to see something doesn't mean it's not valuable to a team.

No, he didn't provide any. I showed that Iglesias could hit to a 46 wRC+, which would have been the lowest in the league this year by about 18 points, and still have a year consistent with what Aviles did, but that's not good enough apparently. Some people are just stubborn and refuse to admit when they are wrong about something.

Actually, he's precisely the guy that would fit the Red Sox. Extremely high OBP (.416 this year), OPS in the mid .800's (which would be increased by playing his home games at Fenway rather than Target). Versatile player who can catch, play 1B, and has a bat good enough to DH. He may not hit 30 HR, but he's probably good for 15-20 with a .400+ OBP and a ton of doubles. If the Twins will eat some of his contract, I'd certainly be interested in a deal for him. Last year, he caught 75 games. He can split time between C and 1B while Lavarnway filters in, and the Sox could even go as far as using Gomez as a 1B while Mauer catches and/or against LHP.

Texas has already done some homework on Ellsbury, along with Upton. The Sox were also rumored to have been paired up with Texas at the deadline in a deal including Ellsbury, but the deal didn't get done for whatever reason. Regardless, the Rangers are certainly interested in Ells.

Here's where I heard about his velocity: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/10/shohei-otani-deciding-between-japan-mlb.html "Despite his young age, Otani is already 6'4" and 190 pounds and owns a fastball that has been clocked in the 99-100 mph range. MLB teams wouldn't have to pay a posting fee to sign Otani as he isn't contracted to any Japanese pro team."

I've heard the kid pumps 99-100 as an 18 year old. Not sure if it's accurate, but if so, he's certainly worth looking into.

Side note, going back to the fangraphs site - I really would like to see the Red Sox go after Elvis Andrus. As of right now, though, I am convinced that the DBacks and Rangers are going to line up perfectly for a trade with Upton and Andrus.

And a 60-70 wRC+ would put him at around a 105-115 DRS + wRC+. Which is much better than Aviles's 89 wRC+. I do want to point out that by no means am I saying that Iglesias is a great option. He's more of a "better of the two bad options". Just to be clear, saying that Iglesias is a better option than Aviles is not the same as saying that Iglesias is a good shortstop. He'll be, at his peak, around a 2.5-3.0 WAR player, which is above average, but at the same time, his WAR will be weighted very heavily by his UZR.

Side note, I cannot believe nobody caught my horrifying math error.

Exactly a700. It's not as though we're comparing Iglesias to Tulo. Aviles had a .663 OPS this year. That's disgusting. He had a 74 wRC+. That's awful

Hey SCM - Still waiting for your statistical proof that with Iglesias as the starting SS, we would have lost 100 games. Anytime would be great. Actually, the sooner the better. Since, you know, you try to negate someone's statement by calling them out for having no statistical proof, then make a completely unjustified projection with, wait for it......no statistical proof. Aviles DRS/1,200 Innings + wRC+ = 89 Iglesias would only need a wRC+ of 46 to match that.

Couple things. First off, he's still extremely young to be in AAA. Going in as a 22 year old is playing way over his head. Brendan Ryan, for example, didn't reach AAA until he was 24. He's not going to be a big hitter. He's going to be an elite defensive SS who transforms into a decent hitter as he ages. Need I remind anyone here that Dustin Pedroia hit .198 in his first year up here over 31 games?? By no means am I saying that Iglesias is going to be the next Pedroia, but holy s*** guys. He played 25 games. He had a UZR/150 of over 49, which is mind boggling. He's easily a better option than Aviles at SS. Give me a young, inexperienced Bogaerts over both of them, but that will never happen. So it's Iglesias vs Aviles. Iglesias literally did as bad as he possibly could this year at the dish, and still put up a WAR/game of 0.012, vs Aviles's 0.013. Give me Iggy over Aviles any day. And that's not even a promotion of Iglesias. It's a knock on Aviles. He's awful.

1. I guess when you compare Brendan Ryan at 24 when he first reached AAA to Iglesias, reaching AAA at 21, you're probably going to see a bit of a difference in numbers. But that wouldn't go with your theory, so obviously you will just ignore it and hope I don't notice. Bad news. I noticed. 2. Aviles is a better offensive player. But, as I showed by the total runs saved and created, Iglesias provides more support to the team. Sorry, it's math. 3. Here are some of Iglesias's projections coming into this season: http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/players/jose-iglesias.php So, his worst projected line was .237/.275/.258. And that's actually better than the projection I posted using Ryan's numbers. Not as good in SLG, higher AVG, same OBP. I'm very sorry that you can't comprehend that there are two sides to a baseball game (hint: one is defense), and that value is added on both sides. Iglesias, with his .118 average this year, still would have had a WAR consistent with that of Aviles. And his BABIP of .137? I'd say that's likely to trend upward, wouldn't you? Probably not, you're not a reasonable person. You just throw on the blinders and hate players without regard to statistics and facts.