SoxFanForsyth

Correct. For all intents and purposes, Felix and Trout are not available. Obviously, if a once in a lifetime player comes around like that, you make the deal. But otherwise, no dice. LaRoche is likely going to be resigned with the Nats. I think the Sox could coax Morse away from the Nats with a nice package of players. He'd be a great fit in Fenway, too. 35 HR power. Trust me, I hate Swisher more than anyone I know. You say he's a product of Yankee Stadium, but that's completely false. His splits have him as an .834 OPS hitter at home, .841 OPS away. He's got 11 HR at home, 13 away. Playing $13mm AAV for a player like that is not a bad deal. The problem is that he will likely try to demand $14-16mm AAV, and someone may actually pay him that. His position flexibility is another reason why he could be a nice fit. He can play LF, RF, or 1B. If you add him and a guy like Mike Napoli, you have great position flexibility at 1B, since Napoli can play 1B or C, too. Yep - The Sox farm system is completely depleted of power hitting 1B. It's a shame that Ellsbury is in his last year of his deal because he's a great fit for the Angels. You may be able to get Trumbo for a deal like Ellsbury + Barnes + Cecchini/Brentz. That's a lot to pay for a guy like Trumbo, but Trumbo would be a 40+ HR guy for the Red Sox, and certainly he would fit the mold of young players the Sox would like to build around. I know I said earlier you don't trade Barnes and Webster, but I would consider it for a young 40+ HR bat like Trumbo (or Mike Stanton, if the Marlins are intent on having a full on fire sale). EDIT: You can also go for Kendrys Morales, who will be hitting FA after this season. He would cost much less in prospects (potentially even a deal of Ellsbury for Morales straight up).

Couple things. 1. The more I think about it, the more I want to acquire our SP's via FA, not via trade, because I want to keep our youngsters for the core. Unless we can make a deal for a guy like Lee in a salary dump scenario and give up Doubront + Cecchini, and eat all the money, then I am not interested. I do think Shields hits FA, because $9mm for a SP with a lot of SP depth in the minors and a lot of offensive needs is not a wise way for them to spend money. Sign 2 of Shields/Haren/Peavy. Keep the kids. 2. Trade for Michael Morse. He's going into the final year of his contract. He's versatile to play LF and 1B, and hits for a ton of power. 3. Don't overpay, but see what you can get Nick Swisher for. If you can get him for 4/52, sign him. Anything over that, stay away. 4. Call the Angels and see what you need to give up to get Mark Trumbo. 1B is the main position where the Sox have very little or no depth in the minor leagues. So this is one of the positions you almost have to pay for.

Exactly. And, kind of speaking to that, I like the Red Sox core more than the Guardians. So, gun to my head, I say Red Sox, but that could change based on either teams offseason. I certainly do think that the Red Sox FO is more committed to winning sooner than the Guardians FO, because the Boston market requires it a lot more than the Cleveland market. I think the Red Sox will be competitive for a WC slot next year, whereas I think the Guardians will be around a 73-75 win team.

Errors, wild pitches, sloppy baseball? The Sox would have fit right in.

Cathy Bates. And it's not close. Fried Green Tomatoes is a classic.

The future core of the Red Sox should be Bradley, Bogaerts, Brentz, Middlebrooks, and Pedroia, with Marrero and Swihart filtering in after about a year of that core (which will be around 2015). The Sox could certainly grab a few guys like Cody Ross to fill in for the positions until the core arrives, and be competitive in the meantime. Just because you're rebuilding your core doesn't mean you have to suck. You can win and rebuild at the same time, you just have to make the right moves.

There is certainly a huge amount of SP available, as you pointed out, and that doesn't even start to mention the surprise names that seem to come out every year that are available for trade. Look at Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill last year. Nobody thought they would be available. After this season, you never know who is going to be available. Will the Jays listen on Ricky Romero? He had a bad year last year, but going back to just 2011, he had a 2.72 ERA with 225 IP. What about James Shields? Do the Rays exercise his option, or do they let guys like Archer come up and take over? It's a $9mm option that they could certainly use on the offense. If he's available, he could be a legit #2/#3 for the Sox. There are always surprise pitchers who come out to be available. The Sox could sign Dan Haren and James Shields, and have a very solid top of the rotation when you combine them with Lester and Buchholz, have Lackey as your #5, and De La Rosa in AAA waiting to be called up. Take Doubront and flip he and Cecchini for Michael Morse, who is entering his final season with the Nats before FA. He's got monstrous power (30 HR per 162 games over last 3 years). He's getting a bit old, though. Or you could try to blow away a team like the Angels for Mark Trumbo, and at least try to pry him away. Limitless options. Creativity will be all over the place this offseason.

I think they can certainly be in the WC race as soon as next year, with a very good chance to turn into an elite team by 2014. Offensively, with guys like Bogaerts, Brentz, and Bradley coming up by late 2013, early 2014, and joining the likes of Pedroia, Ellsbury (potentially) and Middlebrooks, that's a very strong, young core group of guys. Pitching, guys like Barnes, Owens, De La Rosa, Webster will all start to filter in, starting in 2013 (De La Rosa) and likely all here by 2015 (Owens), and join Lester, Buchholz, and then you supplement a couple big name pitchers via trade or FA, and you've got a solid rotation too. By 2015, you could be looking at a rotation of De La Rosa - Buchholz - Lester - Barnes - Webster, with Owens taking some spot starts. In terms of having a complete powerhouse team built from the ground up, I agree, 2015 seems to be the time that most of those players will have graduated up. Marrero will likely be ready by then, and you can move Bogaerts to LF, Bradley to CF, and Brentz to RF, WMB at 3B, Marrero at SS, Pedey at 2B. Swihart will probably be about ready to come up by then as well as your next catcher. If he fulfills his promise, I've heard him compared to Buster Posey, which would be a huge bat. There's a lot to be excited about going forward. I think one of the biggest things is going to be getting a good 1B via trade because right now, the system is incredibly thin of 1B. A guy I'd be really interested in is Michael Morse. He could really do some damage at Fenway.

I still don't think it was a horrible deal. Stewart has been dreadful, but I think he's better than his two starts this season. Regardless, the Sox lost in the trade but they were put in a position where they had to make a deal and take heat for it. V and Youk were just a blow up waiting to happen. You can't judge the FO on a deal like that. And regardless, if you look at their overall work during the 2012 season, I'd say they did a damn good job, ridding themselves of Gonzo, Crawford, AND Beckett, only eating $11mm of their total $272mm in contracts, AND getting two prospects back who project as middle to top of the rotation starters. De La Rosa's FLOOR is as an elite set up man (think - Daniel Bard). And Webster is projected to be a middle of the rotation starter, a Derek Lowe with much higher K potential. Not an elite prospect, but certainly top 100 and a guy who could help the rotation as soon as late 2013, depending on where he starts. The Sox FO absolutely destroyed the Dodgers FO in this deal. I think they're much more competent than the couch GM's here give them credit for.

Hahaha. Terrible. Injury. But he was awful when healthy, so again, Terrible. Somehow Pedey forgot how to take a walk. Bad prediction. Awful. Not horrible (played 122 games, hit 19 HR). I'll peg this one as close enough. Laughable. He didn't even get close. K'd 31% of the time, so I was close on that. Hit way more HR than I thought, though. This was probably my best prediction. .267/.326/.481, 22 HR. He was a major force this year. Outproduced the slash line, injuries kept him from the run production. Oye. :thumbdown Oye :thumbdown He regressed alright. This is depressing. Did I say 3.60? I meant 6.20. Bullpen ended up with a 3.88 ERA, and went 21-21. So not overly far off. Worst. Prediction. Ever. Almost had this exactly backwards. Nailed it.

Exactly. And I don't want to trade away Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, or Owens because I really think that could be a huge wave of starting pitching that rolls through the Sox organization over the next 3 to 5 years. You've got De La Rosa, who will likely have a few starts in 2013 and will be in the rotation by 2014. You've got Webster and Barnes, who will likely both start 2013 in AA and finish in AAA. Ready to make some spot starts in 2014, hopefully to the rotation by 2015. And you've got Owens, who many believe is the Sox top pitching prospect. He'll likely start in A+ next year, potentially end the year in AA, and be ready to be called up for spot starts during 2015, rotation by 2016. This is all obviously extremely far out and with prospects nothing is a guarantee, but I really think this is the best the Sox farm system has been set up in terms of starting pitching in a very long time. That's not even mentioning some of the bullpen pieces and back of the rotation pieces that could turn into more like Drake Britton, Anthony Ranaudo, Alex Wilson, Brian Johnson, Brandon Workman, etc.

I literally just said he won't be in the rotation next year. How am I overly enthusiastic by posting an article that was written this morning??

Jackso (or anyone else interested in De La Rosa) - You should read this - http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2012/10/06/rubby-gem-look-new-red-sox-pitcher-rubby-de-la Essentially it says that De La Rosa is a top of the rotation starter, his changeup is an 80 on a 20-80 scale, but that he needs just a bit of time to get back into his groove, so he'll start in AAA. It's pretty much a perfect compromise in the discussion Jackso and I were having regarding him. I was wrong in that he won't be ready by next season, Jackso was wrong in that he's much more than just a bullpen arm.

I do like the idea of the 1 game wild card play in, myself. I have always hated that WC got virtually the same treatment as the division winner, especially when they both came from the same division because they couldn't play each other. This is first year, though, and there will be kinks that need to be ironed out. But regardless, you have to remember that in a situation where there is a 94 win team vs an 88 win team, the 94 win team both has a better record and has had more time to set up it's pitching staff. So there are some major advantages of being the higher ranked team. I'm sure a lot of people hated the WC when it originally was formed too. People hate change, that's just how it is. But I think it's making the game better. I believe baseball had the least amount of teams qualifying for the PS out of the major sports in America (NHL, NFL, NBA, MLB) in terms of percentage. So I think it's a step in the right direction, myself, but yes, kinks need to be ironed out.

That doesn't mean that De La Rosa is overhyped. Not by any means. You're essentially making a point that the Dodgers will never have a high quality prospect ever again.

Rangers/A's/Angels/Mariners averaged a combined 4.49 runs per game. Red Sox/Yankees/Rays/Jays/Orioles averaged a combined 4.52 runs per game. It was almost an identical division in terms of offensive production.

Right. But you're not understanding. Chamberlain, Wainwright, etc. They all had TJS and were back in the bigs in 12 months. De La Rosa will have had 18 months off by the time ST even starts. It will have been 19 months off by the time the season starts. That's a very significant amount of time. Look at Wainwright at around the 16 month mark, which was July. He had a 3.11 ERA from 7/18 - the end of the season. It's not like DLRosa just had TJS in July of this year. He's far enough removed that he will be back into regular form by the time 2013 starts.

I'm not missing the point because I know he hasn't just been sitting on his ass for the past year. He had TJS in August of 2011. He had been rehabbing all of 2012. He will continue to rehab during the offseason. I'm sure he'll be in winter leagues throwing in live games in the DR. Do you think he's just going to be sitting on his ass all year? Do you not think the Sox have him in a program right now, getting ready and building stamina for 2013? Do you think the Sox maybe have someone with him working on his release point, his mechanics, etc right now since he sat out for a month and can work this offseason a hell of a lot harder? I feel like you think he's just sitting and watching tv and not working on his stuff. Which is certainly not the case.

I'm not counting on him to lead the rotation. I consider a "top of the rotation starter" to be a top of the rotation. Not the very top. The 1-2. That's what I was referring to when I said he could be a top of the rotation starter. I think he's certainly able to be counted on as a #2. In his worst year, he still threw 177 innings and had a 4.33 ERA. By no means good, but certainly serviceable and will keep you in the games. The liklihood of him, Buch, and Lester all throwing like their 2012 counterparts again is extremely slim, too. I would expect at least 2 of them to be able to come out and throw the ball to around a 3.00-3.30 ERA.

Makes less than zero sense. Showed he could start in the MLB two years ago. You have zero reasoning to keep him in AAA. His slider and change are both good enough with his fastball to be an above average starter in the AL. Certainly a #5 for 2013.

Nobody said he's an ace. I said he's a top of the rotation starter. He's certainly a #2. One bad season doesn't mean he's not an ace. Especially when, in his down season, he still posted a 4.33 ERA and, in his final 8 starts, really started to turn it around, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 41:5 K:BB. Lincecum is in the same boat. Pitchers don't just suddenly fall off the map. He had a nice stretch in 2012 where he posted a 3.06 ERA over 13 games. His strikeouts are consistent with what they've been his entire career. His walks were up, and his HR/9 were up, but he's definitely a guy who will almost certainly rebound in 2013. And as far as Lee goes, the Phillies are in a situation where they have GOT to have offense. They have $133mm tied up over 13 players, so they don't have a whole lot of money to go buy a good player. They are in a position where they need to deal from a position of strength to account for a position of weakness.

He threw 100 IP in 2011, 110 IP in 2010. And he was only 22 in 2011, so he's not going to have a ton of innings, but what he did show in 2011 was that he is certainly capable of being a SP in the MLB. He's got 233 IP of work in the minors, to a combined 2.86 ERA. All of the scouting reports have him as a #2 starter or higher. He's going to be 24 years old next year. He's shown he could be a starter at the age of 22, and throw to a sub-4 ERA at that young age. There is no reason to throw him back in AAA when he has already shown that he could start 2 years before that. He can certainly be a SP in 2013 for the Red Sox. All reports are that he's ready right now, you're just being hard headed because you refuse to believe that the Red Sox have any young talent in their farm system. If De La Rosa was in the Yankees organization, he would be the 2nd coming of Pedro Martinez.

Sounds like you had 1 bad experience with him and are writing him off. He's a much, much better scout than you give him credit for. But if you don't like that, I'm sure you think Fangraphs is s***** too, because FG loves De La Rosa as well. Here's their write up. You'll like the bit in bold. The key to the deal is de la Rosa. A hard-throwing native of the Dominican Republic, just 23 years old, he has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter. Only his lack of consistent command and control keep the No. 1 label from being adhered to de la Rosa. There are also some concerns over the durability of the hurler who underwent Tommy John surgery during the 2011 season. He doesn’t have the largest frame and puts a lot of strain on his body by reaching triple-digits with his fastball. His secondary pitches – a changeup and slider – both showed a lot of potential pre-surgery but he’s made just five official appearances since returning from the disable list. Our very own in-house scout Mike Newman had these glowing words to say about the right-hander after seeing him pitch live: “…De La Rosa’s fastball was in a different league than any I’d seen previously… the one 98 MPH fastball he located belt high on the inner half is seared into my scouting mind as it bored down and in on a right handed hitter to devastating effect. It was the single most dominant pitch I’ve seen live…” Hm. That's some pretty high praise.

This is absolutely false. He's got a good track record. Every analyst is going to get a few wrong, but he's got a much better track record than most.

Yes. Who is very conservative in terms of ranking prospects, especially their upside.