SoxFanForsyth

Random thing happened today. Kalish tweeted out that he was going to head to the Common to toss the frisbee a bit, wanted some people to show up to toss. So, I showed up, threw the frisbee with him for about 2 hours. Really, really nice guy. Pretty cool afternoon!

The more I think about it, the more I really hope the Sox go after Mark Trumbo for 1B. He's a 40+ HR guy at Fenway. He's only got a career .780 OPS, and in his career year last year, he had a .808 OPS, so he's not going to cost a ton to acquire. Maybe Garin Cecchini + Jacoby Ellsbury would get a deal close, perhaps adding a guy like Alex Wilson or Drake Britton and receiving a lower ranked prospect along with Trumbo. Right now, the Angels have Morales, Pujols, and Trumbo. All three are 1B (although Trumbo did attempt to play LF during the year), but going forward they would have the ability to really upgrade their LF with Ellsbury (in terms of overall production, not just HR, and defense included). I hope Cherrington looks into that deal, because it would make a lot of sense for the Red Sox.

According to Buster Olney, the compensation for Farrell came down to two players: Mike Aviles and Andrew Bailey. Uh. That's laughable. It's not close. Bailey is so much better than Aviles.

I'm confused - It's my understanding that Farrell chose Lovullo. Are you saying that Cherrington chose Lovullo, or just that the Sox FO should continue to act like they did when allowing Farrell to choose Lovullo?

Well, Bogaerts can play SS for at least his first few years while he fills out, and by the time he's needing to move to 3B, Longoria will be gone for a higher bidder. Maybe you go with Swihart rather than Cecchini, since Cecchini will be coming up as a 3B as well. That's a good point. Or, hell, would you go Bogaerts + Bradley + De La Rosa for Price? And, if need be, Doubront? I'd be very reluctant to give up Bogaerts and Bradley, but Price would probably be worth it.

I think I would too. I am trying to think about what the Yankees gave up for Pineda last year. I know it was headlined by Montero, which is essentially the equivalent of Bogaerts. So, essentially the Sox could give up Bogaerts plus two more high caliber prospects, and an MLB pitcher, and get a guy who is a better pitcher but has less time left on his deal. You think that's a fair deal for the Rays?

If you're the Red Sox, would you trade Xander Bogaerts + 1 of Rubby De La Rosa / Allen Webster + Garin Cecchini + Doubront for David Price? That's three top 100 prospects (one of which will likely be a top 15 going into next year) plus a #4, ceiling of #3 pitcher.

Well, Ortiz is up in Boston to work out, so there's that. But my guess is that it would be his agent. One interesting thing is that Middlebrooks is flying up to Boston today. He claims it's to hang out with Ortiz, but would it surprise anyone if Middlebrooks locked in to a 6 year, $28-30mm deal? That'd be very smart on the Red Sox.

Yeah, but from all reports, the money isn't going to keep a deal from happening. Edes reported that the Sox are willing to go 2/$25mm but hope to get him for a few million less. Sorry, Jackso. Your fantasy of Ortiz in a Yankee uniform isn't going to come true.

Farrell denied any truth to Vizquel's comments in an interview on WEEI yesterday. Bautista also denied any truth to it. It sounds to me like Omar was a little pissy about a lack of playing time and was looking to stir up s***, but that's just my take

Here's the full recap (per BostonHerald.com)

Best manager? Sure, that's an overstatement. But best manager for the Red Sox, I don't think that's an overstatement at all. His familiarity with the Sox organization is very valuable, especially his familiarity with the pitchers, which is really where their struggles all boil down. Also, Farrell publicly denied any merit to the Vizquel comments this year on WEEI today. If you ask me, I think he's the perfect guy for the job right now. He's got the strong demeanor to him, gets along well with the leaders of the team, can straighten out Buch, Lester, and potentially even Lackey (who had a 4.40 ERA and 215 IP in 2010, something I think we would all kill for from our #5 man next year). The fact that guys like Lester, Pedroia, and Ortiz all came out publicly and expressed how excited they are for this hiring just shows how much this hiring differs from the Valentine hiring. Look - Was he manager of the year in Toronto? No. He made some mistakes. Had some hiccups. Fine. But you have to look at this from the standpoint that he knows the Red Sox organization, the core players in the Sox, and he knows how to operate this team. He also knows you can't rely on the 3 run HR and expect to go far (See: 2012 Yankees ALCS). I, personally, am very confident that he and Cherrington can turn this team back into an annual contender as early as next season, but at least by 2014.

Do you have any stats to back this up? Nothing against you, we have our disagreements, but this time it just seems like you are just not a Farrell fan overall and it stems much farther back than his Blue Jays days.

I thought this thread deserved a few more posts, so here's one. Valentine is now calling out Ortiz for essentially quitting. Apparently he's going to be in an interview with Bob Costas tonight at 10 pm EST. What a bitch.

In 2011, the Blue Jays had the 3rd best baserunning in the MLB at an 11.1 BsR per Fangraphs. The Red Sox were in last place at -17.6. In 2012, the Jays had a 5.1 BsR. The Sox had a 2.7 BsR. There's a difference between a few isolated incidences of recklessness on a team that is aggressive on the basepaths and being a reckless team. Farrell managed his baserunning well for the most part. Being aggressive on the basepaths is how you stop losing 1-0 and 2-1 games. It's forcing the other teams to make the throw from RF to 3B. Putting pressure on the pitcher in a tight game by stealing. Noticing longer than normal deliveries by the pitcher or noticing a catcher who is going through a stint where he's having a hard time transferring the ball on stolen base attempts. Sometimes aggressiveness is going to come back and bite you, but I'd rather see a guy thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd in a tie game with 1 out than to watch us strand runner after runner at 2nd base.

If the Sox had to chip anything in for Andrus, it would only be because of the extra year on the contract, and it would only be a guy like Stolmy Pimental. From 2009-2012 (which is how long Andrus has been around), Ellsbury and Andrus have almost identical WAR's. Even with Ellsbury missing a ton of time on the DL, he's still just as valuable over those 4 seasons as Andrus.

I don't understand why Farrell stinks. Because the Jays had a bad record?? Francona was horrific in Philadelphia. The Rays were horrific under Maddon in 06 and 07. A teams record is not an indication of a manager. I don't understand your basis as to why Farrell is going to be a bad manager.

True, but Aviles had zero patience and couldn't hit a breaking ball either. At least Ciriaco has good speed and can bunt for base hits and create massive havoc on the basepaths. Plus he's got enough speed where he can play the corner OF's and make up for bad reads off the bat with his speed. Ciriaco is essentially Aviles, less power, more speed. And speed will create more base hits. Given, Ciriaco is all smoke and mirrors, he still puts pressure on the defense on even routine groundouts. He's certainly not a starter, but he's as good of a bench player as Aviles is.

This was 100% not a ridiculous trade. I would so much rather have given up Aviles than any of our prospects. At least some of our prospects could turn out to be MLB contributors. Aviles is a bench player at best. He shouldn't even be on the 40 man roster. I'd much rather have Ciriaco as my utility IF than Aviles. The trade was a very good trade. And how can you say "he has a long way to go to prove himself worthy of his position" when he just unloaded $270mm of bad contracts in August and got two top prospect arms in return?!? Keith Law already said that De La Rosa and Webster both are the best prospects in the Red Sox farm system. I'm not sure if you have a man crush on Aviles or something, but he was beyond terrible. Like Pal said, we had a .118 hitter playing in front of him all of September, and oh by the way, that .118 hitter was on track to put up a nearly identical WAR as Aviles. Trading Aviles for Farrell was a very good move by the Sox. Ridding themselves of monstrous bad contracts and only having $45mm on the books for 2013 (pre-arb) is an executive of the year type move. Don't get all over Cherrington just because of the Scutaro deal. You were the one pining for him to get Oswalt all this time, how'd that turn out for the Rangers?

This is funny. It takes just a couple moves for the Sox to contend this year. Acquiring either Cliff Lee or Tim Lincecum via trade, and signing a guy like Dan Haren will give them a very solid rotaiton. Acquiring Jonathan Broxton and Rafeal Soriano gives them an elite bullpen. Acquiring Michael Morse via trade and signing Melky Cabrera to a 1 year deal gives them a top 5 offense again. Rotation of Lee - Haren - Buch - Lester - Lackey Bullpen of Soriano - Broxton - Bailey - De La Rosa - Tazawa - Miller - Breslow Lineup of Ellsbury - Pedroia - Ortiz - Morse - WMB - Melky - Ross - Lavarnway/Salty - Iggy. That is easily a contending team right there, no question about it. It only takes a few moves to get back into things, and most of those are moves that will not cost a lot in prospects (outside of Lee) and will be short term deals (i.e. 4 years or less)

If you can get 2 years of Andrus for Ellsbury, I would make that deal happen. He's a very good defender, not going to slug much, but he's going to give you a .350-.360 OBP at the top of the order. It's a good deal from both sides. And from all reports, the Rangers have been doing a lot of homework on Ellsbury, so they're certainly interested in him.

I have brought this up a ton recently. I think he'd be a fantastic fit in Boston.

Ellsbury played 74 games after being sat on and having his shoulder dislocated. Fortunately GM's understand that his injuries have come from freak accidents, not recurring physical issues. His trade value is certainly lower than it was in 2011, but a deal for Andrus straight up is absolutely realistic from both sides.

The Rangers have done a lot of homework on Ellsbury, according to all the reports I've read, going into this offseason. If it was last year, the Red Sox wouldn't pull the trigger. Now that Ellsbury is coming off of a down year, the values are similar. After last season, Ellsbury's value was much higher than Andrus's. I don't think the Rangers just lost interest in Ellsbury. Hell, they almost pulled the trigger on a deal at the trade deadline. The only issue now is the contract. And Andrus becomes a FA in 2015. Ells becomes a FA in 2014. So the contracts are not different enough to merit another substantial player in the deal. Perhaps Ells plus a C level prospect for Andrus.

Now that the DBacks dealt Chris Young and got Cliff Pennington in return, the Rangers and DBacks are no longer that ideal trade partner in a deal of Andrus for Upton. So, now it's going to be very very interesting since the Rangers love Ellsbury, and they have Profar ready to come up, I can definitely see an Ellsbury for Andrus deal.