SoxFanForsyth

I mean De La Rosa had success at the big league level in 2011 as a 22 year old. Not sure how that translates to "no track record". That's as good of a track record as you're going to get with a prospect. Morales has 24 starts to a 4.34 ERA. Not sure how that's a problem. He posted 10 starts to a 4.12 ERA last year. Dumb comment. Aceves has started 10 games and posted a 4.18 ERA. You act as if I'm projecting these guys to be low 3's ERA starters. I'm not. I'm saying league average (2012 league average was a 4.40 ERA). Projecting them to not be able to replicate their history just because you don't want them to be able to is as homer as it gets.

What about Aceves? He's not SP Depth?

What??? Morales took the ball for 10 starts and posted a 4.12 ERA in those starts last year. If anything, he's good for more starts than that. De La Rosa took the ball for 10 starts in 2011 and posted a 3.71 ERA, that was 2 years ago and he will certainly be capable of filling in for 10-15 starts this year. And this doesn't even mention Aceves, Webster, Wright, all of who can give at least league average performance. To say our 3-5 starters are irreplaceable is ridiculous.

ME TOO!!! :thumbsup::thumbsup: I also won the drawing for Yankees tickets. If I would have projected that, people on here would KILL me. See? It's good to be an optimistic fan sometimes.

http://images.scribblelive.com/2013/2/13/18993c31-ba59-4ec6-a448-cf4a37a367e5_400.jpg Perfect photo to show what Lester was doing wrong last year and looks to have corrected this year. Last year, his front knee was pointed toward the catcher at this point in his delivery. Now, it's pointed toward the 1B dugout. That's a significant change.

Whew. Good news.

Jackso you need to have a look at this article: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/02/07/can-jon-lester-bounce-back-history-offers-some

Well, Lester also is coming off of much more sustained success than Verlander. In his 4 years leading up to 2012, Lester had a 3.33 ERA and a 135 ERA+. Verlander has 2 years leading up to his 2008 season, in which he posted a 3.64 ERA and a 125 ERA+. If anything, Lester's poor season was more of an aberration than Verlanders. Regardless, the whole point of this was to show that pitchers have down years, and it doesn't define their future success at all.

Player A: 201 IP, 4.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 1.403 WHIP Player B: 205.1 IP, 4.82 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 1.383 WHIP Player A: Justin Verlander, 2008 Player B: Jon Lester, 2012 Let's not write off Lester quite yet.

Quick update on the NESN scheduling for the ST Games: NESN will televise 14 Red Sox games during spring training. Here is the schedule: Feb. 23 vs. Rays, 1:30 p.m. Feb. 27 at Orioles, 7 p.m. March 1 vs. Pirates, 7 p.m. March 3 vs. Yankees, 1:30 p.m. March 8 vs. Twins, 7 p.m. March 9 vs. Orioles, 7 p.m. March 10 at Rays, 1 p.m. March 15 vs. Twins, 7 p.m. March 17 vs. Rays, 1 :30 p.m. March 21 vs. Phillies, 7 p.m. (NESN Plus) March 23 vs. Pirates, 1:30 p.m. March 24 at Phillies, 1 p.m. March 28 vs. Twins, 7 p.m. March 30 vs Twins, 1:30 p.m. (NESN Plus) NESN will start 11 consecutive days of "Red Sox Live" from Fort Myers on Feb. 10. The show, hosted by Tom Caron, will feature Peter Gammons along with Sox players, coaches, and executives.

Teams built for the WS =/= teams built for the regular season. The Sox can get through a 90 win season with their rotation. But when they have to face Verlander and the Tigers in a short series, they're in really bad shape.

So, I just want to be 100% clear here. You think 69 wins + 10 wins for BP + 5 wins for Lester = 84 Wins. Lackey is a wash with Beckett, so that's no improvement. You award 5 wins for Lester, who would likely go from a 9-14, 4.82 ERA to a 14-8, 3.50 ERA, correct? Yet, you award zero wins for Dempster, who is replacing Cook/Dice/Stewart, who went 5-20 in 31 starts and had a combined 7.12 ERA. I see zero logic in that last part. Dempster over that garbage is worth at least 6 wins.

The 60 win team is completely arbitrary, especially considering it was largely due to underperformance of SP, and thus a 30 game gap doesn't have ot be made up via the acquisitions. The majority of the gap is going to be made up via a return to form by the SP and the health of guys like Ellsbury. If the SP can return to form, not a tall order, then with the largely improved bullpen, it can easily be a 90 win team. Last year's team would have been a 86 win team with the 2011 SP staff. And you've virtually replaced or upgraded the offensive production at every position, including 1B and tremendously upgraded the bullpen. That would equate to a 90 win team.

Ok, so now you're filling that slot that you originally lost (Lackey) right back with the same guy. You've completely revamped the bullpen and it looks even better now than it was in 2012. And my projection is that Lester returns to his talent level. So how are they not a 90 win team? If those are the reasons that they dropped, then they've just corrected those problems.

Hey you never answered my question. How did the Sox go from a 90 win team to a 69 win team from 2011 - 2012?

Yes. But today on EEI, Merloni projected the Sox to win 90. So I'm not 1. crazy or 2. the only one.

Stop traffic. We agree on something

Two things. First, if you read the article, it has quotes of him essentially saying he's out to change the perception of him. Second, the entire medical staff has changed. So while he thinks they screwed him over, it's an entire different staff now. This is the same guy who told his family not even to come to the games at Fenway because of the fans. I hardly think he's going to want to exacerbate that.

For anyone who is interested, Boston.com has a Spring Training Live Blog (Click here for Link) They've got photos, videos, and reports from Fort Myers. Looks like Lackey, Lester, Bard, and Bailey all threw off the mound. From the short clip of Bard throwing, it looks like he's getting after it.

Great article on Lackey (link here) Couple excerpts that stood out for me: "Lackey defied the pain in his elbow in 2011, pitching games against his better judgment because there wasn’t anybody else available. A surgeon later told him the bone spur he plucked out of his arm was the largest he had ever seen." "Lackey pitched in increasing discomfort for much of the 2011 season. He said that the Red Sox medical staff — which has all since been replaced — misled him. “When you get an MRI after the season and your doctor asks what the hell you were doing pitching, you get the idea that somebody wasn’t being honest with you,” he said. “But I took the ball. That is what you do.” I know most people on here absolutely despise the guy, but to his credit, I'm not sure how many pitchers on our staff would have gone out there with a massive bone spur in their elbow and tried to compete with their elbow hurting so bad they couldn't even throw a pen. Lackey certainly gets a bad rap, and that's fine, he's much more concerned with being a stand up guy to his teammates than to the fans, and I'd rather see it that way than the other way around. Here's to hoping that he turns it around and has a great year in 2013. It would certainly go a long way in getting the Sox back in contention.

Yeah, and at least Dempster has swing and miss stuff. He posted more than a K per inning when he went to the Rangers, and 8.0/9 for the year. I didn't realize how bad Lohse's peripherals were. He doesn't walk many but he struggles to K more than 6/9.

It looks like the Sox 2nd rounder will be the 44th overall. Taken 44th overall in 2010 was Nick Castellanos. He is now the 38th best prospect, ahead of Bradley as ranked by Keith Law. Bradley was taken 40th overall by the Sox. So there is plenty of talent left in those slots

Well from what I understand, there won't be nearly as many comp round picks which makes the 2nd rounders more valuable (see: Jackie Bradley). I think that's a bit more of the location in the draft you'll be looking at. Plus obviously as you mention slot money is a lot to give up there.

All you are is a troll. Have you ever made a real contribution to this board? I mean other than complaining about our 11th SP.

This is extremely rare.