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Palodios

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Everything posted by Palodios

  1. Palodios
    Clayton Kershaw 215 million Justin Verlander 180 million Felix Hernandez 175 million CC Sabathia 161 million Greinke 147 million Cole Hamels 141 million Johan Santana 137 million. Matt Cain 127 million All of these guys were big names, annual CY Young contenders, and/or playoff studs, that provided significant innings. Not only is Scherzer nowhere near as consistent, but he is also one of the ugliest players in baseball. The one dumb owner theory is important in all free agent signings, but dumb owners like sex appeal, and big names. Without another CY Young season or strong playoff push, I see absolutely no reason why he's worth as much as Felix, nevermind Kershaw.
  2. Palodios
    Greinke signed after 2012. Scherzer will sign after 2014. Can you not count? I didn't aribitrarily subtract a year. Teams factor in age when determining long term contracts -- the difference in 1.5 years at signing time is significant. Had Greinke been older, his contract would likely have been shorter.
  3. Palodios
    I fully believe in the stupidity of owners, but I've given several comparables to players that are closer to Scherzer's class that have made significantly less money than you are arguing. If Zack Greinke is a pitcher with extremely similar numbers. He was a year and a half younger with significantly higher innings per game -- was signed to a 147 million dollar contract by the richest team in the majors. Subtract a year from the contract to account for age, and you're looking at a 125 million dollar for Scherzer after 2012. With a great year, he's looking at maybe 160, but baseball inflation doesn't increase player value 35% every year.
  4. Palodios
    Teams will have Max from ages 30.8 - 38 years old during an 8 year contract. The only teams who would give Max an 8 year deal are the Dodgers and Yankees -- which is why I stress that there are no guarantees. The Yankees will get Arod's salary back, have gigantic holes in their infield and bullpen. The Dodgers already have a 150 and 300 million dollar starter, plus they need to resign Hanley. Other teams will ask themselves if Scherzer is really worth 100 million dollars more than Masterson, 120 million more than Ervin Santana, 50 million more than James Shields or 40 more than Lester.
  5. Palodios
    All of the massive contracts have gone to #1 pitchers or #2 pitchers with many prime years still available. The best comparison here is Zack Greinke. Two guys coming from the AL Central, Cy Young Winners, high strikeout numbers, both with career 3.60 ERAs, WHIPs in the 1.20's. Greinke received 147 million going into free agency a year and a half younger, and with higher inning numbers. Scherzer might get around that, but if Scherzer repeats his 3.74 ERA 2012, no one is going to want to pay 200 million for his age 31-38 seasons.
  6. Palodios
    The guys who have received huge paydays have been far more consistent. Wainright, Felix, Kershaw have proven a great deal more than Scherzer. Scherzer is in that next tier -- the Homer Bailey/Lester/Matt Cain/Jared Weaver group.
  7. Palodios
    Teddy... Can you do me a huge favor and switch the avatar? We've had a bug problem here lately, and it really is creeping me out.
  8. Palodios
    Scherzer has had one ace season with a .250 BABIP and a career low HR/FB% -- it also was the first time in his career he eclipsed 200+ innings. He also pitched 16 games against a combination of Houston, KC, CHW, Min, Philly, NYM. He also has to compete with Shields, Masterson, and an impending David Price trade. He might be able to hit that 144 million number if without another CY Young type season, there are no guarantees -- especially with contending teams.
  9. Palodios
    I just don't get the sense of the Ortiz extension -- Ortiz is great, but there is no chance he will be worth it. He's 39 this year and will see some decline. After 2014, they could still extend him a 15 million dollar QO, and I seriously doubt anyone would want to give him two years, AND lose a prospect for a 40 year old.
  10. Palodios
    Max Scherzer turned down a 6/144 extension offer from the Tigers. I understand he had a great 2013, but the rest of his career has been pretty mediocre, against a very weak division. Meanwhile, the Rangers lose Profar, after losing countless pitchers. The AL's best has struggled this offseason.
  11. Palodios
    I'm surprised the Dodgers agreed to this game. When the Red Sox went to Japan in 2008, it ended up burning their team out early. I don't care if it is a week early, a 15 hour time zone difference is always going to linger longer than a week. Edit: LA is 3 hours back, so we're actually looking at an 18 hour time zone difference. That's tricky.
  12. Palodios
    Fred, take a look at the Spring schedule and maybe you may feel a bit better. Many of the losses were from the first week of spring training when the team was playing minor leaguers and not at full strength. They've been playing much better, and are closer to .500 lately, with two of their losses against Lee and Price.
  13. Palodios
    The time is a little tricky. I'm drafting FROM work. Ew.
  14. Palodios
    I just read an article that said Chapman came away in as good a shape as possible. Apparently the concussion is only mild-- his nose protected him from harm.
  15. Palodios
    Ellsbury not playing because of calf soreness. Hahahaa
  16. Palodios
    User Name? has not been around lately-- I bet he'd be a lock if he was around. Anyone facebook friends with him? We didn't really advertise much -- maybe we can pull some new players into the draft.
  17. Palodios
    Grady Sizemore is a 7 WAR player when healthy. Bradley is an unproven rookie that might be worth 5 WAR. If they're both producing, Gomes/Nava are going to be the ones sitting on the bench not Sizemore/Bradley. As far as your examples... Lars Anderson was a .720 hitter in AA and AAA. He never developed the power he needed to make the big leagues. Kalish had opportunity after opportunity after opportunity. He got an early cup of coffee in 2010, was optioned in April 2011, and immediately broke his ribs ending his season, and pretty much his career. Two weeks in AAA did not end his career -- his fragility ended his career. Crawford, Cameron and Drew were walking wounded that year, and had he lasted another few days he probably could have stayed on the roster the rest of the year.
  18. Palodios
    NYY and NYM both seem to be good fits -- they need a SS, have the money, and only lose 3rd picks -- but even that doesn't seem to be going Drew's way. At some point, he should just go back to the Red Sox offering to be a utility player for 5 million, because that's the best he'll get at this point.
  19. Palodios
    There is a riveting new 30-for-30 documentary on ESPN of one the greatest basketball players of all time. If you are a basketball fan, this is a must-watch. Truly inspiring stuff.
  20. Palodios
    I seem to get smoked in this league year after year. Still fun though. I'll join for now, but if someone more competitive comes along and needs my spot so be it.
  21. Palodios
    Denney with a DUI. Seems to be a trend on this team lately.
  22. Palodios
    Santana -> Braves. Glad to see him avoid the AL East.
  23. Palodios
    We seem to see this trend in all sorts of organizations. No one wants to put a starter in the pen, even if he isn't any good as a starter. Luke Hochevar wasted away as an awful starter for years until they realized the #1 overall pick was a good reliever. Andrew Miller same exact thing, but #7 overall instead of #1. Lincecum may very well be another example, although he was untouchable as a starter for a long time.
  24. Palodios
    The irony of RookieGate is that Marlin's actual team is just prospects and triple-A minor leaguers. Worse yet, the Marlins scored 0 runs against the Red Sox AAA team. That being said, let's get the champions more innings.
  25. Palodios
    Jacko, eventually the declining fastball will catch up to him. He has been topping out at 88 in ST. It isn't over for him, but he has been slowing.
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