Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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My former targets were Guthrie and Marcum, but now that Guthrie is off the market, I think the Red Sox's best bet is going to be grabbing two of the high upside injury risk players. Not one, but two. They will be a fraction of the price of Greinke/Sanchez/Lohse. I'm looking at Mccarthy, Haren, Marcum. Maybe Garza. I'm less optimistic about Dempster.
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You don't have your facts straight.
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I've heard this before, and it really bothers me. They needed him EVERY game. The only games where he pitched poorly were games that the Red Sox were well ahead of the playoff race. The 2011 Red Sox got to an awful start, and were far below .500? Jon Lester had a 2.52 ERA in April. When the team was pulling its self together, he struggled a bit, but managed to pull a 4-1 record in May And what about when the team needed to pick up ground on its AL East foes? 2.31, 1.56, 2.78 ERAs in June, July, August. And what about the very last game of his season when a must-win game against Baltimore? 6 innings, 2 runs. Can you really complain about that?
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Catching is a big energy sink for players. They have many more responsibilities than other position players. It is also a very different position to field than other infield positions. I'm not saying Napoli is going to be stellar, but his defensive stats at first are extremely small sample sizes based on generally low amount of experience at the position.
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Defensively he is been below average at first base, but I'm assuming that is due to inexperience at the position-- he only plays there 15-20 games a season. He also is very useful in interleague games. If Papi needs to play first, pull out Salty/Lavs and put Napoli at C. Voila.
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The one example I'm thinking of is how they handled the manager situation, and how it went on and on and on, and it got in the way of making acquisitions. However, in that case, it seemed like Ben was putting effort into a manager, and then the big wigs essentially wasted his time.
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The other important thing to note about Napoli is that by signing him, they take a free agent catcher off the market, and increase the value of Salty/Lavs.
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If the 4th year is the stopping point, I think at some point they need to give in, and give it to him, or find some compromise. There is a very good chance he'll be a .900 OPS guy in Boston -- is that not worth a 4/60 contract?
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I've been a big Victorino fan all offseason. I would argue not only that he would be a smart pickup on a one year deal, but also that grabbing him as a bargain long-term contract would be a great idea for the team that you can add to your roster and build around like Middlbrooks/Pedroia etc. He's only a year removed from a 6 WAR season, and in a down year was still at 3.3.
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Kyle Lohse really scares me. He is not worth the 40-60 million he will probably receive. He was a miserable starter when he pitched in the American League. 2001-- 5.68 ERA 2002-- 4.23 ERA 2003 -- 4.61 ERA 2004 -- 5.34 ERA 2005 -- 4.18 ERA 2006 -- 7.07 ERA Does that seem like a guy worth multiple years? If they let Guthrie go for 3/25, and pick up Lohse for 4/60 they will seriously, seriously regret it.
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I think that matters to Boston who got burned with players who don't fit the market, but I get the feeling that most other teams don't care. You're looking at a guy with a career 3.80 ERA who will probably make 120-140 million. It really doesn't sound like the market has dried up all that much for him.
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Player A Age 32 Split versus righties .223 /.307 / .425 /.732 Split versus lefties .284 / .382/ .512 /.894 Career .244/ .334 / .455 /.790 Player B Age 32 Split versus righties .253/ .312/ .415 /.727 Split versus lefties 284/ .353/ .575/ .928 Career .262/.324/.460/.783 These guys are so similar, they started looking like the same player to me. Why pay 3/24 for Ross when you get almost exactly the same production from Gomes? Especially when the money saved may go to elite starting pitching, or Josh Hamilton.
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The trick is to copy a u and paste it in when necessary.
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I don't think that Gomes is all that bad of a target. He has a .380 OBP against lefties. Nava has a .370 OBP against righties. Put the two together, and you get a .370-.375 OBP, .800 OPS platoon with 20-25 home runs, that can probably survive defensively in left field. All for the cost of what? 2/8 for Gomes and 1/.5 for Nava? Its not a sexy pickup by any means, but it fills a hole, and leaves the team a significant amount of money to pick up pitching.
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Boston has a few things going for it. Tons of payroll, an elite farm system that will be ready in 1-2 years, and a hitter's ballpark which players know can help rebuild their own value in short term deal. They should be targeting hitters first, on short deals to make the team more attractive, then pitchers since they will be harder to bring aboard.
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Guthrie is not s***. Unlike the majority of the players out there, he is AL East proven. Once again, realize that he would be taking the place of Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation, not Beckett.
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Once again, this is not about being upset or irrational as teams overpay players and wipe out their farm systems. It is a matter of quality value players being taken off the board early, as the big names linger-- big names Ben should be avoiding in pursuit of the very value players he is missing out on.
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I have mixed feelings about this move. It seems to send the message that the Yanks have no problem getting older. Is a pricey one year deal on a 38 year old worth a first round draft pick? It He had a great year last year, so maybe it is. Mixed feelings
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From the scouting reports I've read, he has an excellent arm, and meh-speed. That might be good enough to be above-average in left field since there is so much less ground to cover. No idea about the plate discipline.
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Ben has been talking about waiting till later in the offseason to grab better value free agents. I hope he's been seeing the kinds of deals going off the board already-- Scott Baker, Guthrie, Santana, Melky Cabrera, Torri Hunter... the high upside bargain bin guys are the ones being picked up first. I don't think there has been a single unreasonable deal among them either. If there are players he likes, he should make offers. If they decline, fine, but stop feigning interest in players to make it seem like you're doing something.
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I adamantly disagree. Put it into perspective. Guthrie would be taking Daisuke's spot in the rotation. This is a guy with a career 4.28 ERA 200 inning guy-- despite pitching the majority of his career in the American League east. Sure, he got years, but not AAV. 3/24 to play for the Royals? I bet he would have taken a 2/18-20 deal with an option to play for the Red Sox, and that's pennies compared to other contracts out there. I'm very concerned that we're going to end up with an overpaid NL West pitcher who can't handle the East.
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How about Nakajima at short? He's probably going to be much cheaper than Stephen Drew, and supposedly is a pretty solid shortstop.
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FYI
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The "Stupid GM" factor is always in play. Whenever the home team lowballs a guy, the player usually gets 2 extra years on top of it. Sometimes it ends up being a team on the brink of relevance-- like the Nats with Jason Werth-- or a team looking for a ring like the Tigers with Fielder.
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No, Cabrera is definitely the MVP. End of story.
