Palodios
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Everything posted by Palodios
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Adding top tier talent through the draft is very inconsistent. If you're a big market and can get 5 good seasons out of a player in a 7 year deal sometimes that is good enough - especially if you don't have to lose prospects or picks to obtain them. For example If Beltran's last big deal was on the table right now, adding a middle of the order bat and very good glove for 5 of 7 years, it wouldn't be an immediate no -go for me- the AAv was half of arods at the time too.
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His games played the last four years are 158, 124, 157 and 144 , an average of 146. At a 150 game average that is 16 games, and even if you want to assume a 162 game season that's still only 65 games... I would hardly consider that a full season.
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Holliday has hit. 300 and opsed nearly. .900. Sabathias first 200 million dollar contract succeeded... His second one not so much. Taking steroids made the roiders worth their contracts... But that still means they were worth them. Beltran lost a year worth of games due to health, but one year doesn't invalidate the other years when healthy or the prospect he gained them.
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Manny Ramirez, Sabathia, Giambi, Holliday, Cabrera's current contract. Beltran got injured at the end of his, but he produced well and ended up netting his team a top pitching prospect. Giving 200 million to a player past 32 will never be a smart move though.
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The other question we should be asking is... how much worse will the free agent market get in the next few years? The best guys available after 2014 are Hanley, Gardner, Robertson, Butler, Sandoval. Trying to outbid the Yanks and Dodgers, great. Then two future DH's who have been OPSing around .800. With the limited number of quality free agents, maybe getting the best in a year like this might be worth it -- especially with some of the other big money teams low on cash, although Choo or Ellsbury seem like better targets.
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In dicek's 6 year contract he had two respectable years and four bad ones. How many playoff games did they win during those bad years ? 0.
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The Red Sox don't need Cano... But I would be perfectly okay with them talking to his representation and telling him they are welcome to use the organization as leverage against the Yankees in negotiations.
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Buster Olney also suggesting the Salty market has been weak. He speculates it may be related to his medical records.
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Yeahhhh. Thanks!
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Besides Drew, the Red Sox's free agents haven't been getting much interest out there. Despite the rush on catchers, Salty is still out there, and the Twins just shot their load on Nolasco. Napoli's biggest suiter decided to grab Fielder instead. Ellsbury is priced out. I know it is early, but other teams don't seem to like these guys.
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I agree that Fowler is a starting CF.... but you're alone in the idea that he's worth JBJ. He only has one more year of control before hitting free agency, and also is pretty mediocre defensively.
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Tom Brady's best stats are all based on wins. His 77.7% winning percentage is the best among all QBs in history by a huge margin... Montana is second with 71.3%. His 5 superbowls and 3 rings are impressive as well. However, he doesn't match the sheer stats that Manning has produced, and many pre-passing era QBs may have performed better with the current NFL rules in place. The argument comes down to... what is more important, wins or counting stats? Winning that argument is like winning an argument about politics.
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I heard a rumor that Tanaka is part of a Japanese cult that worships Koji Uehara.
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Top 100 prospects refer to all the top scouting lists, ie Baseball America's top 100 prospects. It is a commonly used phrase that basically indicates a prospect is very talented, and the scouting community backs up that assessment. Owens and Ranaudo will almost certainly be on those lists next year, and Webster, Ball and Barnes have pretty good chances to be there as well. And as far as Buchholz...teams do whacky things for cost controlled top tier pitching, especially with guys with that insane of a talent level. I wouldn't be surprised to see two very good pieces come back for him.
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The Red Sox have 5 guys who are potentially top 100 type prospects (plus RDLR), not including the group that already has made an impact on the majors. Not all of them will succeed, but the odds of 2 of 6 becoming solid starters for the organization's future isn't exactly a long shot -- especially since most of them are already in the upper majors. Lackey has 2 more years, Doubront and Buchholz have 4 more years. Lester seems like he will reup. You really just need one or two.
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Isn't it interesting that this whole forum is assuming Buch gets hurt? Why not trade the guy with the 12-1 record last year? He has a pretty good deal -- 2/20 with two more option years. Sure, he's injury prone, but look at the haul the Blue Jays gave up to get one year of Josh Johnson. He had an injury-filled season, but he was practically the best pitcher in baseball when on the field, so someone must be willing to drop something shiny for him.
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I don't necessarily disagree with you. Selling high on Lackey seems like a not-completely-terrible idea, but he was this team's most reliable pitcher in 2013. If you can get a Will Myers type talent, I say go for it. Santana isn't that guy, IMO.
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Sounds like the Rockies are aggressively chasing Morneau. Napoli might land right in the Red Sox's hands.
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Ofcourse they would take that deal. Lackey has to be worth some significant prospects right now -- coming off a 3.52 ERA season in a tough hitters park, going 3-1 in the playoffs, all on a 2/16 deal? I understand he has a big potential for decline, but teams do whacky things for pitching.
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The problem is that the Guardians will want value for Sanatana as a catcher, but I'd only be willing to give value for him as a first basemen. I don't think a deal can be reached without seriously overpaying.
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I see now reason why they make that trade. Santana has 3/18 left on his contract, and a 12 million dollar option for a 4th year. Absolutely no reason to trade a very solid DH option for the Red Sox's junk and a maybe-prospect like Webster.
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All of them are clearly talented, but they're all still very young. Rizzo is doing okay. He had a very good start to his career in 2012, but had a meh, but not awful 2013. He's still only 24 so there is plenty of room to improve. Reymond Fuentes had a .900+ OPS in AA and AAA this year with 36 steals over 100 games. His cup of coffee didn't go great, but he is only 22. Casey Kelly struggled in 2012 because of elbow issues, and finally had TJS in 2013. 23 years old.
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The last time the Red Sox traded 2 top 100 prospects, they got back Adrian Gonzalez, coming off a .900 OPS/.400 OBP season, already with 2 gold gloves at the position and entering his prime. I wouldn't consider Santana in the same class as 2010 Agon, even with the nice contract.
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I understand that, but it is very faulty logic. He's saying that because Napoli was an awful first basemen and turned into a very respectable first baseman, that Santana can also make a huge turnaround. Trading two big chips for a .800 OPS bat -- especially one at 1B -- just seems like a bad idea to me. I also don't think Napoli will come anywhere near 70 million. Last offseason, he was only one year removed from a 1.046 OPS season, and he still got 3/39.... I mean 1/5 guaranteed.
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You're cherrypicking numbers. Napoli's 2012 1B stats? He played 20-something games at first base in 2012. Why not use the stats from his 2013 season where he led the majors in 1B UZR over a full season? And as far as wRC, their career numbers are similar, with Napoli's 129 narrowly beating out Santana's 128. Santana isn't worth two top 150 prospects -- especially if he transitions to first base.
