MNSoxChief102

I voted yes, because the more I read, the more I think it's going to happen. That said, I hope to God it doesn't. I f***ing hate Valentine... don't even like watching Sunday Night baseball anymore because of him. Half the time I mute the volume on my TV and tap into the WEEI broadcast online instead. If Valentine is our next manager I'm sure I'll get over my dislike sooner or later, provided we win consistently, and challenge for a title, but it's going to be tough.

One opinion on the Phillies-Papelbon marriage... for what it's worth http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove11/story/_/id/7220970/2011-mlb-free-agency-pitcher-jonathan-papelbon-signs-phillies ESPN's Keith Law -- I thought signing Ryan Madson for four years and $44 million was a bad idea, even though he is the best free-agent reliever on the market, both short- and long-term. The history of signing relievers to deals of that length is simply too awful to ignore. That contract would have been a bargain relative to the four-year deal the Phillies are about to give Jonathan Papelbon -- more money, plus a lost draft pick, for an inferior reliever who gives up more fly balls. Papelbon was the second-best relief option on the market, but even in one of his best seasons in 2011, he was worth only two or three wins above replacement, and I'd put the over/under on his WAR for this deal at around eight, which would still make it a pretty bad contract. But the real issue with any reliever and with Papelbon specifically is high attrition rates -- relievers don't last, and their peaks tend to be short. Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia. (His career-low home run rate in 2011 wasn't going to last, anyway.) And Papelbon has worked limited innings, never reaching 70 in a season, probably the Red Sox's response to his 2006 shoulder injury. The Phillies, as a team, threw 1,477 innings in 2011 and are now going to pay, on average, $12.5 million per year to Papelbon to throw maybe 4.5 percent of those. If they maintained that per-inning rate across their entire staff, they'd spend about $277 million on pitching alone. And since the ninth inning isn't always, or even often, the most leveraged inning in a game, this is a criminal misapplication of funds, not to mention the discarding of yet another first-round draft pick for the Phillies, whose farm system is depleted after a number of trades and other first-round picks lost for free-agent signings. Madson remains the best reliever on the market, but the gap between him and the second-best option is much larger, and that should help him max out his value, although the Phillies might just be completely out of touch with the market for relievers and how a sane executive would rationally value the innings they provide. As for the Red Sox, they pick up the Phillies' first-round pick, which would make it easier for them to use their own in signing a Type A free agent. They can slide Daniel Bard into the ninth inning -- I don't see his stuff or arm slot translating to the rotation -- and invest the money not spent there on shoring up their rotation.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cherington-on-papelbon-ortiz-free-agents.html Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington discussed a number of topics with reporters today, and WEEI.com's Rob Bradford has the details in these two posts. The hot stove highlights... The Red Sox didn't make a formal offer to Jonathan Papelbon, who reached a four-year, $50MM agreement with the Phillies today. Cherington said he discussed "concepts" of a new contract with Papelbon's agents Sam and Seth Levinson, but didn't make an offer since Papelbon's asking price simply didn't fit into Boston's offseason plans. Cherington said he wasn't given the option of matching the Phillies' offer by Papelbon's representatives, but he didn't think such a step was necessary. Given the number of closing options on the market, Cherington didn't think his team would feel comfortable offering a four-year contract to a closer as the Phillies did with Papelbon. The Red Sox have been talking to David Ortiz's representatives and Cherington said he wants to re-sign the veteran slugger. "Because of what I feel, and I think he feels, is a little bit more of a defined market for that role it's been easier to engage sooner," Cherington said. "It's probably less likely to be a situation where he gets into the market and there's something that he's pushed into a corner on. David knows we want him to be here. We want him to be back with the Red Sox. We want him in our lineup. We've had a lot of dialogue to see if there's a way to do that and I think that will continue." Cherington feels that beyond the top free agent starters, there is "a lot of risk" in the pitching market this winter. "There are options, but riskier and would require some sort of bounce back from injury or bad luck or performance to some degree," the Boston GM said. "We're going to be exhaustive in looking at ways to build depth to the rotation an the bullpen. We do believe we have some internal options that will help us."

Fair point. After last season's meltdown, change was needed. In a big way. I for one am glad to see it.

Pap wanted a record setting deal and the Phillies gave it to him. He also wanted out of the chaos that is Boston baseball right now. Hence the reason why he never gave the Sox a shot at matching that deal. He's going from a team in flux to a team that's loaded and primed to make a run deep into the post-season, provided they don't choke like they did last year (and the year before that). The Sox would have probably gone three years at a higher AAV, but once it went to four years and $50 million, there was no way we were going to match. The Phillies overpaid to win now. The Sox tried that approach last year and it backfired. One step back, two steps forward is a much better way to do it.

Really? That's funny... I can remember plenty of people criticizing the deal big time when the numbers came out, yourself included. s***, you had it in your sig all season long... something to the effect of "Note to Theo: don't sign Crawford"

Cherington was here long before the current ownership... he was hired by Duquette in the mid-90s as a low level intern out of college. And those in the know have said he'll be nobody's puppet as GM. Ben worked his ass off to get his shot... and I suspect he'll do just fine. Given the way Theo spent money in FA with reckless abandon and got burned more times than not as a result, I'll take a more conservative approach for a change.

He wanted out. Given the chaos surrounding this team, I don't necessarily blame him. When Philly gave him that offer it was a no brainer to accept. Kind of like the Crawford deal last year. No one else was going to come close to it. The Phillies are under as much if not more pressure to win NOW as the Red Sox are. Let's not forget that they were the unanimous pick to get to the Series last year and they didn't make it out of the first round with home field advantage and the best rotation in baseball. The fans in Philly will string Amaro up from the nearest lamp post if he doesn't make big moves this off-season.

It's fairly humorous that the same people who have bitched and moaned the most about the Crawford deal are now bitching and moaning the most about us not giving Pap a record breaking deal for an absurd amount of years for a closer. Boston signs Crawford to a ridiculous deal: "omg Theo is so dumb, think about the long-term!" Boston lets Papelbon sign elsewhere for a ridiculous deal: "omg Ben is so dumb, think about next season!"

It is what it is. Everyone and their mom has known for a long time now that Pap had his sights set on whoever would pay him the most coin this off-season. And the Phillies overpaid big time to get him... not in the actual yearly dollars but in the length of the contract they gave him IMO. Four years for any closer not name Rivera is asking for trouble. I would have gone 2 years at a much higher AAV, perhaps even 3 years, but not more than that. I'm as big a fan of Pap as there is... I love his attitude, antics, and intimidation on the mound. But after watching him and the rest of the team crap the bed when it mattered most last season, I'm more than willing to take that money and spend it elsewhere to get this club back to the top. One player will not make or break this team... if we can use the cash to sign two players that can contribute to the overall team success, it's a shrewd move IMO.

You can't just release him. Baseball contracts are guaranteed, meaning he's getting every penny of that deal no matter how much he sucks. If the Sox agree to pay pretty much all of his contract in return for a middling prospect or two, they'll find a taker. Teams in the NL West or AL West would take him I would think... big ballparks out there and maybe a change of scenery away from Boston helps him figure his s*** out. Personally, I think the Padres are the best option.

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/10/epstein_not_out.html Major league sources said tonight that no deal is in place for Theo Epstein to join the Chicago Cubs in an upper management capacity. But a resolution is expected in the coming days. Epstein is weighing the decision and is not necessarily a lock to leave the Red Sox after nine seasons. But his interest in the Cubs has progressed to a point where the expectation is that he will leave. Beyond compensation from the Cubs, the various sides would have to negotiate what Red Sox staff members Epstein could bring with him to Chicago. If Epstein leaves, the Red Sox have given every indication that senior vice president and assistant general manager Ben Cherington would replace him. A 36-year-old New Hampshire native and Amherst graduate, Cherington has been with the Red Sox since 1999. The Red Sox have put their search for a new manager on hold while waiting Epstein to make his decision. Owner John Henry seems willing to let Epstein stay on as GM but also is not standing in his way as he pursues the Cubs position. The Herald reported tonight that Epstein is on the cusp of leaving the Cubs. But along with the Globe, ESPN and Comast Sports New England are reporting that is not quite the case yet.

My top two candidates would be Tony Pena and Dave Martinez. Either one would be an outstanding choice IMO. Pena has managerial experience and did well with the Royals until the front office f***ed up his roster enough that he couldn't win consistently. That won't be a problem here. Martinez hasn't managed, but he always seems to make good decisions with regard to the bullpen when Maddon gets tossed, and is pretty highly regarded around the league for his game intelligence. Seems like he'll bring Maddon's happy go lucky personality but won't stand for guys f***ing around like the Sox did this year.

Meh, I guess I was thinking that Theo and Hoyer are such good buddies they'd find a way to work it out. Could we maybe convince them to take Lackey (with us paying most of his salary) and a low level prospect for him? That'd be a win for us...

Oh man... Joe Torre as manager would be epic. Talk about a huge f*** you to the Yankees organization though. Think he's made peace with them now... heard him talk very favorably about going back to the oldtimers game and donning the Yanks uni again.

Yeah I agree... One guy that I just thought about is Bud Black, the manager in San Diego. He seems pretty solid... gets the most out of lineup of scrubs, has extensive experience underneath Scoscia in Anaheim, and we'd likely be able to pry him away without sending any real talent out there with Jed Hoyer at the helm.

I suppose Bobby Valentine will be a candidate... God I'd hate that though... can't even watch him on Sunday Night Baseball for more than two minutes.

Here's a list of current coaching staffs for every team... not a whole lot of guys on there that I'd be interested in seeing http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/List_of_current_Major_League_Baseball_coaching_staffs

I'm sad to hear Tito is going... in spite of his shortcomings, he helped to deliver two WS titles to a team that hadn't won any in 86 years. But if he does end up leaving as all signs seem to indicate, I'm not sure who I'd want to succeed him in the position. I'd probably be okay with either of these two, but I suspect there will be more candidates that come up here soon... Sandy Alomar Jr - 1B coach Cleveland Dave Martinez - Bench coach Tampa Bay

With the kind of players we have, I fully expect a DEEP run next year.

Ballgame. Dirty Water rolling in Baltimore

Love how the Rays suddenly have a fans that actually give a s*** and show up at the park

And it's Soriano of all pitchers... no reason he'd want to give the Rays a shot

f***ing Yanks... just knew they'd blow it.