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mvp 78

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Everything posted by mvp 78

  1. mvp 78
    Your strawman is not true though.
  2. mvp 78
    No. With CERA, you are taking partials and dividing them further. You say that CERA is useless on a macro level. Things like OPS+ are made to compare players across the league. CERA, by your definition, cannot. Other stats can utilize a larger sample size. You say that CERA gets worse the larger you make the sample. These two things are not the same.
  3. mvp 78
    Yes. Verdugo has taken a small step back or at least slightly underperformed. Verdugo is still a starting regular, but he's not a potential All Star going forward. Downs and Wong haven't shown much at all to this point.
  4. mvp 78
    Dalbec to 3b confirmed.
  5. mvp 78
    Xander WRC+ 137 Devers WRC+ 131
  6. mvp 78
    I'll stick with the good ones.
  7. mvp 78
    Have Arroyo play Catcher.
  8. mvp 78
    "Just root for the laundry." They aren't even wearing the same jerseys anymore.
  9. mvp 78
    I know we can. It would just make me sad again.
  10. mvp 78
    And what happens when sample sizes are wrong or fraught with other sample differences (opposing lineups, health of players involved, pitchers either declining or improving as time goes on, etc.)? Randomness!
  11. mvp 78
    For the past 10 years or so I have subscribed to Woolner’s conclusions, but I can no longer do so. I believe his sample sizes were too small. Exactly!
  12. mvp 78
    However, there is a problem with this straight forward approach, as noted by Keith Woolner in his study published in Baseball Prospectus. The problem is sample size. Agreed.
  13. mvp 78
    So yes, it's random then. Adding a whole bunch of words after stating there are problems is just a waste. It's a random SSS.
  14. mvp 78
    I've actually read the first two before. My conclusion was that CERA is random because of SSS.
  15. mvp 78
    Can, yes. Should?
  16. mvp 78
    Does watching Grace and Frankie on Netflix count?
  17. mvp 78
    He's a good player. I think they should offer him 6/120.
  18. mvp 78
    Ok, but the question was if Raffy would get 20M in arbitration or not. I say no.
  19. mvp 78
    The 950k was a pre arb salary.
  20. mvp 78
    I'm not presuming that it happens. I'm just saying IF it does happen, it opens the opportunity for Arroyo to get playing time.
  21. mvp 78
    Is Vaz the same catcher he was in 2015? No, he's probably better. Comparing random years of Vaz's career to random years of Tek's just doesn't make much sense. Pitchers change over time. These aren't apples to apples comparisons.
  22. mvp 78
    He's not getting 20M this offseason. No way. Bellinger got 12 after an MVP season. Raffy is not that guy.
  23. mvp 78
    Betts didn't get 20M in arbitration until after his 10 fWAR season. I love Raffy, but he's a 5 fWAR guy and will probably get about 10M per year in arb the next 2 seasons.
  24. mvp 78
    The Sox may not want to do that. I would do it though. Devers won't make more in arbitration. He only made 4.5M this year and only has two arb years left. They aren't bumping him up to 20M.
  25. mvp 78
    They had Reese in 2004. He could have just slid over if they wanted to. They saw that Nomar was going to be out 50% of the time down the stretch in 2004. They needed to move on and found a more complete SS. I don't think it was solely due to defense. If Nomar wasn't injured, they would have stuck it out with him.
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