I picked James Shields -- inning burning, durable, just entering his prime, excellent command, an up and comer with a shot at really being great and a very good chance of at least being solidly effective in the American League East -- no small feat itself.
If I really was building a team, Shields is the kind of guy I'd want pitching for it. He gets his work done, doesn't get himself in trouble very often, and saves the bullpen, all very important considerations when you're looking for an ace.
There are probably other higher-upside picks such as Lincecum but Shields is about the lowest-risk pick out there for a pitcher, and if you're picking a pitcher, managing risk is important.