Dojji

That is a pretty fair point, I'll cop to having overlooked that. Doesn't really hurt my argument that much, neither of them are exactly strikeout pitchers. Now you've got me curious. I'll have a look around and see if I can find something else that explains the dropoff. It might simply be pure command improvement, since it coincides with a drop in bb/9, but I'm not convinced if only because the turnaround happened just as soon as he left one team and joined another. Then again, it's the Mariners. I might simply be making the mistaken assumption that they knew what they were doing with Meche.

http://yellowcakewalk.net/2006-09-11/red_herring.jpg

I've told you THREE TIMES that I'm evaluating Bush based on his career, not his 2009 numbers, Jacoby. When you're trying to pick veterans to play for you for 5 years you can't be swayed by SSS unless they point to extreme problems. This? Doesn't. Bush doesn't have control issues. Control issues is what Dontrelle Willis had. Bush just had a couple bad games. Yes, there is a difference.

Yeah, the Baring Badgers officially do not draft Miller. Do not want.

Yeah, sure, if you're only counting this season. Since we're trying to project for up to 5 years into the future you kind of have to look more than 1 year into the past. We're still early enough into this year that small sample sizes are going to distort results -- this looks like a prime example. As a general rule, for any veteran, usual trends will eventually prevail, and this isn't much of a deviation. Also, Meche's HR totals are unsustainably low this year. That will normalize. By career he's around 1 HR/9, a little less than that in his 2 breakout years. Pitching at home at Kauffman Stadium with its deep outfield is probably the biggest part of his "turnaround." but he'll probably be at just under 1 HR/9 again this year when all is said and done. Less than Bush, but not by a ton.

Perhaps we can actually have a meaningful discussion of the merits of Bush and Meche without all the NL-AL nonsense. As I see it, Meche has two advantages over Bush, and Bush has one over Meche. Meche is more durable (more IP/season) and a somewhat better strikeout rate. Bush surrenders fewer baserunners and also has the benefit of being somewhat younger. The difference in career pitching numbers averages out to zero with an infinitesimal edge to Meche. If they faced off when all else was equal, historical Meche and historical Bush would probably split a 100 game series something like 52-48 in Meche's favor. It's hard to say, though, since that kind of dynamic will never really be put to the test. There are way too many dynamics in baseball for ALL else to be equal. The other dynamic here is that Meche has really improved over the last couple seasons while Bush has not. It's very possible going forward that Meche might be the better option as a result. Meche's improvements are largely a result of greatly reduced bb/9, which doesn't signify a whole lot but might mean that he's got his stuff together and finally "got it." On the other hand, Meche's bb/9 is back up to his career levels this year at 3.6 per 9, so unless he goes on a hot streak, the ugly word "regression" rears its head. For a fifth starter, though, either option is more than adequate. A durable, league average pitcher for a #5 is a good way to go. Meche might be a little better but either pitcher should get the job done.

An 11 run difference over an entire season isn't exactly titanic, DipreG. Certainly not enough to be worth all the idiotic posturing on your part.

AL runs scored, 2008 10,844 NL runs scored, 2008 11,741 Now, that IS spread out over 2 more teams, but I think my point is made.

If you think that command isn't a very important factor in determing who the better pitcher is, then all your protestations to the contrary, you've already failed, and also failed to recognize it, making it a double fail. You're the one comparing a career 100 OPS+ and a career 103 OPS+ and claiming that one is ridiculously superior to the other. That's some pretty baleful fail there.

Because the AL Central and Western divisions are anything but a joke this year. There's three winning teams in the American League west of Toronto. Do you make up your own material or do you get your mommy to help you with the hard math? The National League has Pujols, Hanley, Howard, Fielder, Braun, and Adrian Gonzalez. The American League? Has A-Rod and Morneau. I'd say that the fact that nearly every truly great hitter hits in the National League is reasonable compensation for the fact that pitchers hit. I could go right down the list of position players and show you that the best hitter in nearly every position is a National League player.

Meh. "Stuff" is more than fastball velocity. I'll take Bush's WHIP given the choice. As for K/9, Bush is at 6.1 and Meche is at 6.6 for their careers. Not exactly an earth-shattering difference.

I mean it. Sure, Meche has his two good years in KC but over their careers these two are about equal. Also, Meche has no standout attributes as a pitcher, since he's neither a true strikeout pitcher, nor a contact pitcher, nor does he exhibit excellent command. Bush at least keeps the baserunners down. What Meche has going for him, and this isn't really a small thing, is that he is very durable and seems to be an intelligent pitcher. But again, even with the KC performance I wouldn't worry too much matching him up against Bush with all else equal.

Imagine what Meche could do in front of an average or better defense.

Downs has been solid in the bullpen since '07 after shifting there from the rotation. When I saw him in action his stuff seemed to be good and his WHIP has been declining steadily. He's had some closing experience this year and it's treating him well. Between him and Delcarmen that's a nice core to get a bullpen started. I have no doubt that Downs could sub in for what Ramon Ramirez is doing alongside MDC if I find another closer type later in the draft.

Scott Downs, CL Downs is my closer, Delcarmen my setup man.

Daisuke is sucking right now but there were a lot of positive signs. He missed a lot of bats, he (hallelujah!) threw strikes, and he got his fastball up into the mid 90's. It looked more like a good pitcher's bad day than a bad pitcher's average day, if you know what I mean by that. Even with him getting tattooed I thought this looked more like the Daisuke Matsuzaka we first acquired than the guy we've seen at any time after July of '07. The results were bad but his "stuff" is much improved, the velocity was up and he was painting the corners better. I expect better things from Daisuke very soon.