Jayhawk Bill

Or Manny thought that a five-run lead was going to be enough and that it was too hot standing on first base.

JD Drew saves two runs with a diving catch. No man could be that lithe and flexible--I sense dance school and cheerleading in his youth.

I

Hmmm...let's check 2008 values and costs thus far: Lowell + Beckett: 12.9 VORP; $21.5 million (plus $1 million in amortized signing bonuses) Hanley Ramirez: 23.7 VORP; $439,000

No

501

As of now, I'd say that you were remarkably wrong when you posted this months ago. Hughes is starting to look like Superman post-kryptonite, and Kennedy has struggled mightily most of 2008. That said, you know your stuff as well as anybody here. Projecting pitchers is a crap shoot. Dredge up my 2007 posts--they might not look too prescient right now. But that last comment--that ten-year one--I really disagree with. You've cited eight pitchers: Wang, Joba, Hughes, Kennedy, Papelbon, Buchholz, Lester, and Masterson. Here's my projection: 1) In 2008, one or more will have VORP of zero or less. 2) In 2009, two or more will have VORP of zero or less. 3) In 2011, three or more will have VORP of zero or less. 4) In 2014, four or more will have VORP of zero or less. 5) In 2018, five or more will have VORP of zero or less. In ten years, I'll bet that five out of those eight pitchers will be either retired or worthless, with only three still contributing more to their teams than AAA pitchers would.

2-1 Boston!

C'mon over to my place--I've got the game on the wide screen. :thumbsup:

While Harden has received no further charity, Wakefield has had four strikes called balls so far.

Called strike three to Ellsbury was 2-3 inches outside the strike zone...let's see what Wakefield gets.

Red Sox 1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF 2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B 3. David Ortiz, DH 4. Manny Ramirez, LF 5. Mike Lowell, 3B 6. Kevin Youkilis, 1B 7. J.D. Drew, RF 8. Julio Lugo, SS 9. Kevin Cash, C Tim Wakefield, SP Athletics 1. Jack Hannahan, 3B 2. Bobby Crosby, SS 3. Jack Cust, LF 4. Frank Thomas, DH 5. Ryan Sweeney, CF 6. Emil Brown, RF 7. Mark Ellis, 2B 8. Daric Barton, 1B 9. Kurt Suzuki, C Rich Harden, SP

The wind is now blowing out to left field at 14 mph.

John Farrell in an odd leather outfit? :dunno:

Time zone differences suck. I remember, in a previous job, having to go frequently on the first morning flight from Washington Dulles to LAX, where I would get a rental car and drive first to morning meetings in San Pedro (just south of LA) and then to afternoon meetings in San Diego. Post 9/11, I had to be at Dulles around 4:45 AM Eastern Time, and my afternoon meetings would wrap up around 9:00 PM Eastern Time. That sucked. Having a follow-on evening meeting where I had to hit Rich Harden's pitching would've sucked worse. Boston plays in Oakland tonight, facing one of the best pitchers in the American League, Rich Harden. Harden is healthy; while that may be a rare situation, when he is healthy he's deadly effective. Facing tired Boston hitters will only tend to make him more dominating. On the mound for Boston is Tim Wakefield. Wakefield hasn't pitched particularly well in Oakland over the course of his career, and the current A's lineup includes several guys who've hit Wakefield well. Mark Ellis returns to the lineup tonight: he's batted .455 career vs. Wakefield. Cust is .375; Sweeney is .333; Frank Thomas is .263 with 3 HR in just 19 AB. There are dozens of reasons to expect that the Red Sox will struggle tonight in Oakland. There are three reasons for hope: 1) The Red Sox have been winning; 2) Oakland has been losing; and 3) Mojo. Boston: Tim Wakefield RHP (3-2) 4.33 ERA Oakland: Rich Harden RHP (2-0) 2.91 ERA Current weather: 57 degrees, fair, wing blowing right to left at 8 mph. DFWMM. :thumbsup:

A CALL TO MY FELLOW MEMBERS OF TALKSOX: Will everybody who feels inferior to the New York Yankees please support 26 to 6 by posting your concurrence as a reply in this thread...thanks in advance. 26 to 6, let's see how many Red Sox fans corroborate your position here. You do realize that Jacoby Ellsbury has a much higher career slugging percentage than Melky, don't you? Ellsbury even has a higher Isolated Power than Cabrera in MLB. There really isn't any basis for alleging that Melky has more pop than Jacoby. Aggressive? As in baserunning? Or as in aggressively swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone? We might also avoid incorrect assertions about which of the two is better today.

Cheez, don't scare me like that, Mr. Crunchy...I had to double-check the box score. First the Pitch f/x thing where I check in the morning after I'm rightly called on my posts and Guccione has redefined his strike zone after I posted mid-game, and then you say I've even got the umpire wrong... http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2008_05_22_balmlb_nyamlb_1&mode=wrap

To the contrary--that PROVES that there's a difference between their actual past mean value. I didn't make any claims about the future. Didn't say anything about the HoF with respect to Ellsbury. I have made such comments, IIRC, with respect to Melky Cabrera: he gets really poor support from most Yankees fans for some reason, when he's exactly the sort of player who develops into an All Star and a HoF candidate (not necessarily a HoF inductee). Ellsbury, OTOH, is the sort of player who doesn't grow into a power hitter, but who can be a very exciting and dynamic player through his twenties. But if you want to look at the future, here's the big issue: until and unless Melky Cabrera fills out and hits for power, Ellsbury is a better player. I expect that Melky will overtake Ellsbury: I expect Melky to develop power, while I expect Ellsbury to lose speed. But right now, the two players are not especially close in value, even though I think that Melky Cabrera is one of the better center fielders in MLB. Thus far, Jacoby has simply been that good, and it's difficult to discount a nine-calendar-month stretch in MLB, including a World Series, especially when the minor league stats preceding it suggest that it's not a fluke. Check Ellsbury's stats: MLB career stats: .319/.395/.463 MiLB career stats: .314/.390/.426 The two lines look pretty similar to me. :dunno: And, while we're checking, these stats are even a little better: Postseason stats: .360/.429/.520 Melky Cabrera has regular-season MLB stats of .272/.337/.389 and postseason stats of .158/.158/.316. Trying to defend him rationally and objectively as being in any way as valuable as Jacoby Ellsbury is an exercise in futility. I hope that you enjoyed the Yankees' walk-off win last night! Melky was 0-3...but, hey, that's just a stat.

Pardon, but hasn't it been almost an hour since ORS took you up on your offer? :dunno: Melky Cabrera: 9.1 WARP1 328 MLB games Jacoby Ellsbury: 4.9 WARP1 76 MLB games Jacoby has proven that he's roughly 2.3 times more valuable than Melky Cabrera per game. Watching the game without stats can hide uncomfortable truths. I don't blame you for wanting to watch the 2008 Yankees season without stats close at hand for reference.

Did you mean, "Big zone for the maligned Kennedy this evening?"

Whoa...you left out the salary difference. If Santana goes, oh, 90-60 over these six years, Hughes goes 60-60, and Melky hits .280 with medium power while playing an average CF for four years, the Yankees win big time. Santana is being paid A LOT more money than the Yankees' kids.