Jayhawk Bill

Yes, but the reason for those 2007 splits for Wakefield were walks. In those three games he gave up 17 walks in 14 IP (1.21 BB/IP). Excepting those three games, Wakefield had 47 walks in 175 IP (0.27 BB/IP). Wakefield's top three games allowing walks were all against the Yankees. Yankees batters do walk frequently, but they don't walk 4.5 times as often as the norm for 28 other MLB teams. There's another factor at work. It might be the umpires. If I had Pitch f/x for these games, I'd check the pitch locations, but it wasn't yet installed for any of these games. Which may not have been a coincidence. :dunno:

This evening Tim Wakefield starts for the Red Sox and Joba Chamberlain starts for the Yankees. The Yankees are 20-6 their last 26 Sundays. *** All of this might matter. Over the past week, though, what's seemed to matter most are the umpires. Accordingly, let's check out who's behind the plate. The scheduled umpire for tonight's game is Laz Diaz. Laz Diaz, a former Marine, came to umpiring late in life, graduating from Umpiring School in 1991. He was one of the guys who got his chance in 1995 with the umpires' walkout. He earned a reputation as a no-nonsense umpire, a reputation enhanced when he was confronted with an enraged, drunken fan who charged him on the field at Comiskey Park in 2003: http://sportsmed.starwave.com/media/mlb/2003/0415/photo/a_fan2_i.jpg http://espn.go.com/mlb/news/2003/0416/1539745.html Laz Diaz is, very slightly, a pitcher-friendly umpire. Pitchers have a 4.44 run average with Diaz calling balls and strikes, placing him 32nd among 81 MLB umpires in that respect. His 2.61 SO/BB ratio, however, is fourth-highest among MLB umpires, and second-highest among regular MLB umpires. (The top two results are three-game samples from AAA umpires filling in.) Notably, despite the pitcher-friendly SO/BB ratio, Diaz is 36th among MLB umpires in batting average allowed, suggesting that his strike zone, while pitcher-friendly, is well-located. Boston is 7-3 in their last 10 games called by Laz Diaz. The Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games called by Diaz. In two games I can find where Diaz called Wakefield, Timmay was 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA. *** I've followed umpires for about three years now. If Diaz is calling tonight, I'm happy: if he follows his past tendencies, he'll give both teams a fair chance to win. :thumbsup:

Note that MLB didn't let the public see the old QuesTec results: it was only after pitch-tracking through non-official sources became commonplace that MLB posted its Pitch f/x data. Furthermore, they've been exceptionally careful to prevent structuring the data in a way that would permit data-mining of umpire's strike zones for particular teams. Doing that is possible but labor-intensive. When Pitch f/x results first became public there were mind-blowing games. Go back and check Ian Kennedy's MLB debut or some of Dice-K's early games for overwhelming evidence of umpire bias. Those two games were so bizarre in the pattern of umpire error that they were once-in-a-lifetime results, if they were by chance, not bias, meaning that over 162 games of 30 teams over 60 years, you'd expect such bias in play-calling only once. On the whole, error patterns are now less egregious, but there are still games and moments that stand out as biased. Certainly yesterday, when Danley made three mistakes in favor of Rivera in the critical 9th inning, it stood out. Overall, here are yesterday's pitch-calling errors:* [table]Team Pitching | Balls called strikes | Strikes called balls | Net error Yankees | 15 | 4 | 11 Red Sox | 8 | 10 | -2[/table] Each mistake costs a team between .1 and .2 runs on average, depending upon several factors including the pitch count, the number of outs, and the runners on base. (The actual difference can range much higher, for instance with a mistaken called third strike with two outs and bases loaded, but the .1 to .2 range is almost always good, with .14 to .18 often capturing the net effect.) Danley made a difference probably ranging between 1.3 and 2.6 runs in favor of the Yankees yesterday. Even without consideration of the very close baserunning calls that went in favor of the Yankees, just the pitch calling was enough to swing this very close game. My personal observation was that umpiring has shifted mid-season to favor the Yankees in many recent past seasons. Until 2008 we haven't had universal Pitch f/x, though, so it's been tough to say and tougher to prove. Likewise, if this were true, it's tough to say whether Bud Selig suggested it, the Yankees FO bribed the umpires, the umpires were largely Yankees fans, the umpires were subconsciously influenced by the Yankees fans yelling "Kill the ump," the umpires were bought by gamblers, or if other factors were at work. Furthermore, in isolation, this pattern of missed calls is highly suggestive, but it's not statistically significant by itself. It sure is an interesting data point, though, especially given our past week of frustration. * Graphic results from Brooks Baseball, adjusted for batters' heights, used for this post.

The matrix? Jayhawk Bill in dark trench coat and sunglasses, wielding a calculator and an iPhone, bending over impossibly far backwards as a torrent of fastballs fly by in slow motion But no--our pitching has been doing reasonably well, on the whole, through June. The staff ERA has declined in each month, including, thus far, July.

A little while back I wrote this: You indicate that Tek's great game-calling is a myth--how do you respond to this? :dunno:

Three out of four of Rivera's called strikes were really balls. Given the situation, that in itself was game-changing... ...and that doesn't count a game of biased calls.

Nice.

When was the last time anybody saw one player get HBP three times in a game without a warning?

Leadoff single for Drew! BTW, that called strike was a ball.

Thank Gawd you're back! At my age, any kind of mojo is a welcome surprise!

Bad call by Schrieber on Pedroia's drive down the line...even McCarver on Fox agreed.

Well, cheez, how about sharing some mojo earlier? You realize that the median weighted poster age in this game thread is over 45, don't you? How much mojo do you expect from us old farts? Edit: Silence. Old farts on their own for mojo. Stttrrrrainnnnn...Sttrrrrainnn...

Called strike three on Coco was nowhere near the strike zone. Edit: it missed by over seven inches.

Terry Francona got away with that one--Masterson should've been pulled, but it cost only one run.

Masterson is done. He can't control his pitch location any more.

Maybe, but Manny has hit better as a DH (.286/.417/.500) than he has as a LF (.280/.359/.500) this year.

Dunno. He's marginal: not much Black Ink, lots of Gray Ink, if you know what I mean. One issue: poor postseason performance for a HOF pitcher. He's 2-3 in LCS work and 0-2 in the World Series.

It was actually a strike, not a ball, but it was borderline.

Nice grab by Youk.

To Abreu? Outside.

I wouldn't've faulted that call.