Jayhawk Bill

I just had a weird feeling that this is going to be one of those games that one remembers. Everybody starting for the Sox except Lugo, Crisp, Tek and Ellsbury has owned Pettitte in reasonable samples. Ellsbury is batting 1.000 in 2 AB; Lugo, Crisp and Tek are around .250. *** Slump or not, I wouldn't want to be other then a Red Sox fan tonight.

OK...first a question... Why do Tito's "right people" suck when he goes to them in save situations (usually hold situations, BTW)? Let's get back to that later. *** First, a couple of other tables: [table]NAME | Fair RA Javier Lopez | 2.15 David Aardsma | 2.56 Jonathan Papelbon | 2.66 Chris Smith | 4.94 Hideki Okajima | 5.07 Manny Delcarmen | 5.25 Craig Hansen | 5.88 Mike Timlin | 8.36[/table] Fair RA considers inherited and bequeathed runners. If the guy behind you screws you, you only get charged with the runs an average MLB pitcher would've let score; if you screw the guy ahead of you, or if you save him, the credit for the difference from norms is yours. By this metric, Boston has three obvious choices for late-inning high-leverage use: Papelbon, Lopez, and Aardsma. Are they being used this way? [table]NAME | LEV Hideki Okajima | 1.66 Jonathan Papelbon | 1.58 Craig Hansen | 1.08 Javier Lopez | 1.06 Mike Timlin | 1.04 Manny Delcarmen | 1.03 David Aardsma | 0.68 Chris Smith | 0.43[/table] No, Tito seems to be using Okajima, repeatedly, in his most critical middle-late inning situations, giving Aardsma (and Smith) the least critical situations, and lumping his four other relief pitchers together into an amorphous state of "sometimes I trust you." Have they equally earned that trust? [table]NAME | WXRL Jonathan Papelbon | 1.27 Javier Lopez | 0.98 David Aardsma | 0.76 Hideki Okajima | 0.05 Craig Hansen | 0.04 Chris Smith | 0.00 Manny Delcarmen | -0.47 Mike Timlin | -0.75[/table] Well, we all knew that Mike Timlin wasn't having his best year. More importantly, Papelbon, Lopez and Aardsma again rise to the top of the list. They are the three relief pitchers to trust. MDC sinks lower than he should by Fair RA. That is the definition of choking. MDC is our low-leverage situation guy, or trade bait. And, one more note: Hansen is doing far better at home, and far better vs. RHH (.203/.292/.281 allowed). Hansen should be a ROOGY on the road. *** Back to that question...Why do Tito's "right people" suck when he goes to them in save situations? 1) He's not using Aardsma and Lopez enough. 2) He's using Hansen and, especially, Okajima and Delcarmen in critical situations too much. I'd add, with less evidence, that, 3) On occasion, Papelbon needs to come in earlier than the ninth, and 4) Chris Smith may not suck. But, in summary, ORS, I disagree with your position, "Judged against his peers, I see little room for improvement." I do, just as I see tangible evidence of bad decision-making, evidenced in the micro level by play-by-play decision game management frustrations and at the macro level by D3.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=bos http://www.soxprospects.com/

Not yet compiled and posted by BP, but around -5.6. Boston had one more hit, eight more total bases, and only two fewer walks than the Rays did, and Boston lost the game anyway. Even with the bullpen meltdown, Boston should've won.

Pardon, I went to bed when I saw the deluge approaching with MDC pitching. Here's what Tito was thinking*: 1. "Man, this is a clutch situation. Tek hasn't been too hot recently, but he's always been the man. I'm really glad that Tek is coming up." 2. "I know what to do. To help Tek make contact, I'll call the hit and run. He's been taking too many good pitches recently. They'll groove it, he'll drive it, we'll win, and everything will be wonderful." Note that Tito never thinks about pinch-hitting for Tek, nor does he consider the down side of calling a hit and run with a critical, slow runner on base with two outs left in the game. *** Papelbon needed to be brought into the game to stop the six-run inning, save situation or not. Hansen, or Aardsma, would then have been available to take a crack at earning the save, but the bleeding had to be stopped. *** Remember, Sam Holbrook cost us the game with the call on Lugo at second base. *** I have an idea: fire Terry Francona, promote Jason Varitek to manager, and promote Kottaras to The Show. :dunno: * Presented in statement of fact style, but really speculation. I do not have a John Malkovich-type door through which I can crawl to know the actual thoughts of Terry Francona. Were I to have such a door, some sort of action would have been taken a whole lot sooner. Like the summer of 2005. Seriously.

Thanks! If there are warnings, usually a HBP results in an ejection.

Remdawg and Don mentioned warnings in association with the call on Lugo.

Weren't warnings given before the game? Why isn't Miller history?

That single call cost Boston 1.44 runs in a one-run game.

OK, the games are rigged.

Meh, small sample size. Moss is above replacement-level, but he's really a AAAA player, IMO.

I'd expect 4.00 or so from what I've seen of Dice-K in 2007-2008.

Given his hair style, I had thought that Manny often participated in stonings.

What I can do is check Dustin Pedroia with and without a runner on first, knowing that the runner frequently, if not usually, would be Ellsbury. Nobody on base: .316/.356/.485 Runner on first: .278/.350/.407

The player in MLB whose speed is the most valuable in a given year might have speed worth ten runs. Juan Pierre was best in 2007 with 11.47 runs; Chone Figgins led in 2006 with 9.19 runs.* Jacoby Ellsbury is good enough to be the best baserunner in MLB in any given year, but when Manny's hitting is worth 59-68 runs per year 2001-2006 (BRAR), and even Tim Wakefield's pitching is worth 40-75 runs per year 2001-2007 (PRAR), one can see that even the best baserunner in MLB isn't nearly as valuable for that skill as he should be for his hitting. * Source http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6845

ksushi, thank you for clarifying my point regarding Williams: he was at his assigned place of duty, doing his job, when he was attacked. Well, yes, but... Jeff Nelson accused Williams of attacking him. The entire attack was videotaped; Williams wasn't responsible. Nelson did, however, throw his Yankees teammates under the bus:

Thank you for the cogent response. BTW, you seem to have missed the point in my citing a neutral, Canadian government source regarding the incident, and you asked for local media: Bold added. Nelson approached Williams at his assigned work station, attacked him without provocation, the bullpen joined in, Garcia jumped the fence, the entire group both punched and kicked Williams until security and police pulled them off, and Williams had to be hospitalized. Yeah, classy organization, 26 to 6. The entire bullpen and the right fielder gang up on a groundskeeper, send him to the hospital, and the official spokesperson for the Yankees, their team president, blames the victim.

Did the Yankees take any action against either Nelson or Garcia for their committing battery against Williams while they were under contract? No. Did you allege that the Yankees would never tolerate such action? Yes. Were you correct? No. So Williams should have, in your estimation, if your side of the story is true*, left his work station and lost his job? Got it--to keep Yankees players happy, people unaffliated with the Yankees should quit their jobs, and they should be beat up if they don't do what Yankees players say. Or that Garcia thought that it would be fun to beat up a man cowering on the ground in fear. But you post, repeatedly, that it was Williams's fault. As others have posted, you have a clear ethical double standard. * By the way, did your articles mention that there were police witnesses who were ready and willing to testify that it was an unprovoked attack? From the Canadian media:

I was checking on relief pitcher ERA in save and non-save situations for Tito, and I discovered that his relief pitchers have very slightly higher ERAs in save situations. Girardi's relief pitchers have a 1.80 ERA in save situations and a 4.31 ERA in non-save situations. If Girardi is stupid, what does that make Terry Francona? :dunno:

Boston Comeback Wins: 20 Boston Blown Lead Losses: 17 Boston Other Games: 30-19 Boston is .612 in games where the lead never changes, but they're .541 in games where there's a seesaw battle. Something is hurting Boston disproportionately in games decided late, be it bullpen management, bench use, or just the absolute strength of the bullpen and the bench. The Rays and the Yankees (and the Orioles) are much better in games where there are lead changes, as were Boston's last four playoff teams, 2003-2005 and 2007. I blame Terry Francona, but others might point to the quality of relief pitching and bench play. Our substitute players are hitting, as a group, .203/.289/.297, but our relief pitchers are pitching almost exactly as well as our starting pitchers...it's tough to blame the bullpen rather than Tito on that point. Relief pitchers are posting a 4.03 ERA in save situations but a 3.87 ERA in non-save situations, suggesting that we're using our better pitchers at the wrong time.

I guess that the outcome was predictable.

Oh joy. Tek coming up with the game on the line.