Jayhawk Bill

Nice catch by Melky. I say it again: Yankees fans underestimate Melky Cabrera.

Ummm...Kerwin, that's TWICE Mussina has hit Manny...?

I say that the Yankees are so far back that it'll be tough, but that they're still a very good team, probably as good as any team except the Red Sox, the Rays, the Angels, the Phillies, or the Cubs. Their third-order run differential is a bit better than their straight run differential, and they've got several players underperforming who might come back in August and September. Nine games behind is a lot of games, though, especially with the Red Sox between you and the leader.

Gut check time for Masterson. ARod is a RHH...Masterson can win this one, but he's a rookie playing in the Bronx.

Valid question. You know, Youk is a better-ranging third baseman than Lowell, but Lowell is devastatingly good coming in towards the batter. Super play.

Pedroia stays at first base this time. Had Cora been called safe, it'd be first and third, one out.

Ellsbury puts an outside pitch into play, badly, because they're all being called strikes.

Close play on Cora...could've gone either way.

Gardner is a LHH speedster whose 2008 MiLB MLE suggests he's very suitable to lead off. Against Masterson, I don't fault Girardi.

Yes, by about three inches. Bad swing by Mikey to end the inning.

They were testing Gardner's arm. He bounced the throw to second, but it was right on line. I wouldn't have done it, but I understand why he tried for second base.

Jacoby Ellsbury struck out on three called strikes, none of which were in the strike zone. This may well be a long afternoon.

Maybe...but Buchholz did fine against the Yankees in Fenway, and he got unlucky three ways vs. Yankees in the Bronx: with BABIP, giving up 8 hits on 7 ground balls, 8 fly balls, and just 2 line drives; with concentration of hits, giving up 7 runs while only allowing 9 baserunners; and with conditions, giving up two of his three home runs for 2008 in those four innings, on a day when other pitchers allowed 17 runs themselves in 13.3 IP.

Checking BP's MLE page, Charlie Zink has an ERALF (Luck Free ERA) in Pawtucket of 4.03. Using their standard MLE algorithms, which I know count Zink's age against him without counting his knuckleball for him, he's shown as projecting to a 4.59 ERALF in MLB. That's a reasonable range for Zink in MLB: 4.03 to 4.59, or, more realistically, 3.50 to 5.00. That's MLB-caliber starting pitching, even at its worst end; it's not as good as the AAA ERA would lead one to believe.

The Yankees are starting four LHH and two switch-hitters. LHH (counting switch-hitters batting as LHH) are posting a .231/.381/.484 line against Masterson in 2008. Exactly why isn't Buchholz back with Boston?

Masterson has been plagued by umpire problems his last two starts. In his last start, he had 14 pitches in the strike zone called balls by Sam Holbrook. (Sam Holbrook also called Ellsbury out at second base two games later based upon Lugo's slide into second.) With Mike Everitt he lost only two calls based upon the regulation strike zone, but he didn't get strike calls on six other pitches right off the edge of the black at locations where Everitt called strikes for other pitchers of both teams. When a pitcher takes a net loss of twenty-odd ball-strike calls, it costs him and his team about 2-4 runs. Give Masterson back three runs and his ERA for those two games goes from 6.00 to 3.75, and 3.75 is right where we'd expect Masterson's ERA to be. So let's look at the umpire for today's game. Kerwin Danley is scheduled. Some factoids: 1) The Yankees have won four in a row with Danley calling balls and strikes. 2) The Red Sox have lost three in a row with Danley calling balls and strikes. 3) Going back to 2001, here are Mike Mussina's games started with Danley behind the plate: 4/4/06 7 IP, 3 ER, ND (2 HR allowed) 6/26/03 7.1 IP, 2 ER, W 7/19/02 8 IP, 2 ER, L 6/18/02 6 IP, 5 ER, W (2 HR allowed; Coors Field, light wind blowing out) 10/13/01 7 IP, 0 ER, W (ALDS) Mussina's ERA in those five games is 3.06. A third of the runs allowed were home runs. Discounting the win at Coors with the wind blowing out, Mussina has a 2.15 ERA with Danley calling balls and strikes. *** Here's my take: the first thing to check is whether Danley is calling the same strike zone for Masterson and Mussina, especially regarding Masterson's inside pitches to LHH (that's where Holbrook screwed Masterson). If they're getting the same strike zone, more or less, the issue then becomes whether or not the Red Sox can get a couple of home runs--that seems to be the ticket for scoring enough runs to have a chance against Mussina with Kerwin Danley calling behind the plate.

You know, after browsing old threads for about 30 minutes, I've decided that the stuff that Jacko wrote that got people most upset was largely the truth. Not entirely--nor always delivered politely--but in the 100+ posts of his from 2006 I've read, I'm in no position to throw stones. *** Jacko, the Yankees have a great deal of talent, a strong FO, and a good in-game manager. It's too early for this thread. Suck it up and root for the Yankees tomorrow. I'm hoping that we beat you.

Know why they say that? Because it's riskier from a leadership perspective if you don't win immediately. My take? The risk was called for: the 7-0 blowout was humiliatingly bad, setting the stage, and the Yankees do not have an ace. Beckett has a career 5.90 ERA pitching in Yankee Stadium--I still support Girardi's move. Yes--he points out that the character of play has changed, he lauds Damon as an example, and he tells the team to beat up Masterson. Either that or he screams every night until either they win or he's fired...I'd go for my first idea.

I was wrong--Bell was behind home plate last night. Apologies for the error. He should still, however, apologize.