Where do you get this number?
Let me guess...you got it from Cot's baseball contracts.
Have you noticed that the following players do not have contracts listed [2009 salary in brackets, rounded to nearest 100K]?
Papelbon [6.2 mil]
Kotchman [2.9 mil]
Okajima [1.75 mil club option]
Iglesies just signed 4 year, 8.25 million, so add in about 2.06 million since I don't know the details]
Delcarmen [.48 mil]
Ellsbury [.45 mil]
R. Ramirez [.44 mil]
Lowrie [.41 mil]
Buchholz [.41 mil]
R.A. Ramirez [.4 mil]
Just bringing back the same players at the same salary will result in a payroll increase of 15.5 million.
If the rumored Lowell deal goes through, and you send 9 million, you save 3.5 million. Add in Beltre for at least 10 million AAV, and what do you get?
22 million above the current payroll, which jumps you to 155 million. This doesn't count the 5 players who saw time last year or figure to this year, figure each one [or similar players] at 0.4 million [bard, Bowden, Brown, Doubront, M. Wagner]. That's another 2 million.
Now we are up to 157 million...and that doesn't take into effect any raises you might have for any of your pre-arb players.
I'm not that far off..but you are.