Regardless how good the Rays are, they were dominant in 2008, okay in 2009 and dominant again in 2010 based on pen. Look at the numbers. In 2008, they had the best pen in baseball, in 2009 they had one of the worst and in 2010 they had one of the best again. As their pen goes, so will go their team. Also, subtracting a rabbit like Crawford and a 30HR guy in Pena is not offset by adding an aging Damon and Manny. It will be eased a bit, but offense was their problem last yr and they just lost 2 of their best offensive players, downgraded in the rotation and seriously downgraded in the pen. They'll be back by 2013, IMO, but this upcoming yr, they'll be a .500 team. Toronto lost Marcum and nearly their entire pen, which they rebuilt with vets coming off down yrs plus Frank Francisco who will be depended on to be their closer (yuck). Their offense loses Overbay and Wells and adds in only Juan Rivera. The Jays are going to be the dogs of the division, IMO. The Orioles lose one of their best hitters in Wigginton and add in a guy coming off an abysmal yr in Lee. Getting Reynolds is a risk as well. Vlad would be an upgrade, but overall, they didnt do much where they needed to, in the rotation. Plus, they are probably losing Millwood, who at least gave them innings. I think the Sox are bound for 95-100 wins, the Yanks 90-95 wins, the Rays 80-85 wins, the O's 70-75 wins and the Jays 65-70 wins. The Jays did themselves a favor by unloading Wells and cheapening their roster, but they're a ways away