So we have reached the quarter pole and are a mere week from Memorial Day, the time at which people say they can begin to take the standings seriously. So, we have a ridiculously tight AL East and a sox team 3 games under .500. Now, not many people thought the sox would be this bad, but I did say the sox offense would struggle. But that isn't the only issue the sox are having right now. Let's start with the offense.
OFFENSE:
Currently, Boston is 16th in baseball in runs scored, averaging a shade over 4 per game. Last season, they were at 5.3 per game. So, the sox have lost around 1.3 runs per game in production. Let's take a look at why. I had said last yr that the sox couldn't sustain their offensive output since a fair amount of their players had career years. Well, let's look at those guys...
Daniel Nava- had an .830OPS last yr with a .385OBP. He was good for 3WAR last yr. His BABIP was insanely high last yr and I said he'd correct. And now, he has overshot, with a .509OPS. He'll likely even out, if given the chance, as a .700OPS player with suboptimal defense. Regardless, you lost a lot of offense with him crashing to the ground
Swapping Bradley for Ellsbury- Jacoby had a .781OPS with 52 steals last yr and stabilized your leadoff position. Since his departure, the sox have had the most leadoff hitters in baseball at the top of their lineup. Replacing Ells is Bradley, who is self-proclaimed as "lost" at the moment. That's an understatement with a .602OPS and mired in a 7 for 49 slump. His defense is the only thing keeping him with a positive WAR at 0.3. But losing Ells and his near 6WAR standing hurts a lot when you bring in a rookie.
Getting Drew back removes one swap here, and improves 3b as last season, your OPS from your 3b's was .683. Bogaerts is in the mid .700s, although his defense at 3b last yr (SSS) was abysmal
Swapping Salty for Pierzynski- Salty was a top offensive catcher and last yr, he had a 3WAR. This yr, his OPS is even higher. AJ is playing like a replacement player with a WAR of 0.1 and an OPS of .634, easily the worst of his career.
Mike Carp, your supersub from last yr was not going to produce a near .900OPS again. He was worth 1.3 wins lasr yr in 216ABs. This yr, he's below replacement value and barely seeing the field.
Victorino had a sky high BABIP last yr and was a top 20 MVP candidate. This yr, he started off injured and his impact offensively has been muted in the 17 games he's played as I am not sure he is fully healthy.
Grady Sizemore was supposed to be the cushion for Bradley to try and ensure there would be some production to replace Ellsbury. He has been replacement level to this point and not even an asset.
Overall, the offense came sputtering back to earth after nearly everyone hitting on all cylinders in 2013. Even with Drew returning, I don't expect your offense to return to it's unsustainable levels, while removing two key cogs from last yr and replacing them with one rookie and one over the hill player.
PITCHING:
The Red Sox have the EXACT same ERA as last season. Down to the hundredths point. That's remarkable, and mostly due to Jon Lester. Lester has been otherworldly in his walk year. He went from a guy who used to K a ton of batters to a guy who is breaking his previous strikeout marks while walking less than ever and giving up fewer hits. He's been absolutely remarkable, and at the quarter pole, he is starting to turn the doubters of his status as a true ace into believers.
Aside from him, Lackey is pitching to his career averages. Last yr, he was significantly better, but you cannot complain with what you have gotten out of him.
After those two, the rotation looks rough. Jake Peavy is averaging exactly 6IP per start, which is the bottom of what you expect from a good starter. But his career high walk rate with a career high HR rate makes him actually very lucky to hold a 4.33ERA. He's pitched far worse than that. The strange thing is that he has pitched 6QS in 9 outings. In those QS's, he's walked 20 batters in 38IP, yet somehow managed to log QS's. His FB is down another MPH this yr too, which makes it look more like age is catching up to him than him just not performing well.
Doubront is a horse of a different color here. His K an walk rates have dropped, but by pitching to more contact, he is getting bludgeoned. His OPS against is nearly .800, and it is lefties who are dominating him, hitting .340 with an OPS over .840. Plus, the guy has been an absolute burn on the pen. He has thrown barely over 5 innings per start, which is completely horrible. Doubrton was worth nearly a win last yr, and he is below replacement level at -0.4 this yr.
Now onto Clay. The guy has lost velocity steadily ever year since he topped out at 94.1mph in 2010. This yr, he's down nearly a full MPH. His BB numbers are nearly identical to last yr. His K numbers are down 1 per 9. His HR rate has tripled from last yr. He's also giving you barely 5IP per start as well. The guy who came back to the playoffs last yr was not the guy who started the yr. And it is obvious that the guy on the hill right now is not the guy from the beginning of last yr. The upside is that his BABIP is nearly .400 and his FIP is 4.11. Meaning, he's not nearly been as bad as his ERA suggests. That being said, the time to sell on him has past and you might need to look to upgrade from your former ace type pitcher.
The bullpen has been the balls. 3.00ERA as a bunch, 8.8K/9IP, 1.26WHIP. Everything you could hope for. Uehara hasn't been as dominant, but somehow his ERA is lower than last yr. Breslow has come back down to earth a little, but Badenhop and Capuano have been solid additions. And while Mujica has sucked nuggets, you have seen improvement and durability from Miller.
DEFENSE:
The sox F% has dropped by 0.4%. But the sox have the 5th highest amount of unearned runs in major league baseball. I know this isn't the be all and end all, but the errors the sox are making are slightly more frequent and far more painful than they were a year ago. The sox UERA is 0.5. Last yr, it was 0.26. They've increased their errors and they are hurting far more than they did before.
Overall, the sox are only 3 games back based solely on the fact that the division is without a terrible team but without a truly elite one. They also aren't that far from contending and taking over the top spot. They just got Drew, which will help in the defensive department and moving Bogaerts to 3b should increase offensive production. But they need another OFer and bad. Their LFers are hitting to a .663OPS. Their CFers are hitting to a .620OPS. And that doesn't even address RF with Victorino and if he can re-produce at his 2013 level. And with as good as their pen has been, they need one more top notch starter. They have the cips, we'll see if they have the chops
Hate to say I told you so...