jacksonianmarch

This is a .500 team

.776OPS during the steroid era isn't really going to cut it for me. Good but not elite defender, don't care what the "runs saved" said about that time. Anyone with eyes could see that his D was average to above, but not elite. For a team like the sox who are very reluctant to retire numbers, this one doesn't fit

JBJ is gonna break camp as a starter. ST is useless for him. The guy is a ST monster or at least has been in the past.

I think it's Toronto-NYY-Boston-TB-Baltimore. Baltimore has no rotation, so they fall out. Tampa has the rotation and should be a near .500 team if their new acquisitions give them anything. They are scary in that if their offense does show life and Longoria actually remembers who he is, they have a LOT of upside. Boston leaps over the two, but as is, they aren't a front running team. They need at least another SP and maybe another OFer. The Yankees I have in the 2 slot and another wild card berth, IF THEY STAY HEALTHY, which we know is a big if. Toronto is missing Price and Buerhle, but Sanchez and Stroman are scary good and should only get better.

This is where I have another bone to pick with KLaw. The guy is fawning over Espinosa, and rightfully so. But with his lapping of Espinosa, he completely misses Domingo Acevedo, the NYP pitcher of the yr. I get the whole age gap (Espinosa is 4 yrs younger), but the high impact fastball and breaking ball plus the command is at least on par if not better for Acevedo. And KLaw has him outside the Yankees top 10? Huh? I don't get it. The guy masquerades as a prospect guru, yet he has no clue

As pitchers and catchers start rolling in, I cannot help but ask, that was it? That was the big off-season re-tool that we were waiting for? We added a different 4th OF, have a different backup catcher, have a new 2b and another pen ace? Losing Bird detracts the biggest security blanket we had, the protectorate of Tex and ARod. Now, we are rolling into 2016 with big plans for our soon to be 36 yr old 1b who has played a max of 123 games over the past 4 seasons, ended the yr on the shelf with a broken leg and is a year older? We also have big plans for our soon to be 41 yr old DH who looked completely done after the ASB last yr? The current model of ARod DH'ing and Tex at 1b without any contingency will be the deathknell of this team this yr. Yes, we have the potential to see some major jump from Jacoby now that he is presumably healthy. Yes, Headley will probably bounce back. Yes, Castro will be a major offensive upgrade to Stephen "I suck" Drew. But this offense funnels to the big boys in the middle and now they are more big old f***s rather than boys anyway. The fact that we quietly lost the guy who was going to spell them enough to keep fresh is disappointing and probably damning for our prospects in 2016. I still think this is a playoff team, but the team that limped across the finish line last yr had no business being in a playoff game. There is no point in making it if your team is too beat up to play. We need another corner IF acquisition

UN?, they'll buy the bat. The glove concern is what will hold back his potential return. If this kid comes into 2016 showing the skills of an average big league catcher defensively, his worth will soar. Currently, his stock is hurt by the rumblings that he could be a 1b in waiting

I honestly think that our game plan is centered on a return to big budget spending around the time Harper becomes a FA. If we can be a PO contender from now until then, Cashman will be content not spending big money. We have Tex and Beltran coming off the books with CC likely to follow. Arod is gone after 2017. Maybe we go short term or make some deals in preparation for a big jump into the Harper pool

Shallow and Pedantic

You'd be upset if a 1.100+OPS, 9.5+WAR player was being pursued by your team? Those numbers in the post roid era don't happen.

BTW, Harper will have just turned 26 when he hits FA. A 10 yr deal might not get it done. He might ask for a 12 yr deal

Harper to the Yankees inevitable? Sounds like most pundits feel that way. Bryce has been a Yankee fan his whole life and has a love for Mantle. He's the closest thing to Mantle we have seen in a long time, well he and Trout. The contract he's gonna get would be silly, but he's on a HOF trajectory and a move to YS could only help that with that short porch.

Can we move this to the dead horse topic?

Xander is also one yr closer to a life altering payday, even if it isn't a long term deal. After 2016, he'll be arb eligible. If he has a good 2016, he's looking at $4-$5 mil for 2017, which would basically set him up for awhile, even if he dies on the field. The thing is, the BIG savings comes when pre-arb players are locked up long term. That being said, there is huge risk for a team, especially since arbitration allows for 3 recurring seasons of 1 yr deals. There are plenty of solid extensions signed by teams right at the arb deadline and before. For Betts, the pre-arb signing he should be looking to exceed would be McCutchen's. After year 2 and prior to his final pre-arb season, he signed a 6yr $51 mil deal buying out 2 seasons of FA and an option for a 3rd. In retrospect, this was probably a bad move for the OFer as he'd have hit the market this yr, but it gave him big financial security while allowing him to hit the market again at 32 after the club option is picked up. And in the end, he makes $65 mil over those 7 yrs, not pocket change by any means. Plus, he should be at the tail end of his prime and someone will pay him stupidly again for an even bigger deal. As it stands, Betts will be a FA at 28 yrs old. If the sox lock up 2-3 FA yrs with a deal now, he'd hit the market again at 30-31, which wouldn't be a bad thing for either. My guess is Boras has Xander hold out and Mookie inks up after 2016. I could see a 6 yr $75 mil contract coming into play for Mookie with a $20 mil club option for a 7th yr

A blurb on Rotoworld about the sox was pretty interesting about Xander and Mookie. Apparently, the sox are not in a rush to extend either of those guys. Xander is entering his final yr of pre-arb. Mookie has 2 yrs of pre-arb left. I think there is little doubt that they are among the top players at their positions offensively and as they mature, should cost the sox a pretty penny. That being said, locking guys up in pre-arb who go on to be stars has proven to be pretty shrewd for clubs on the back end of those deals, when the players would otherwise be seeing HUGE money on the open market. SO the question remains, should or shouldn't the sox lock up there guys before they start making real money in arb?

The guy at the top of the lineup will come to the plate the most. Traditional lineups don't make sense. Have your best hitter leading off guarantees he has to bat more, which actually increases your win prob. And the only time the lineup makeup really matters in terms of who follows who is the first time around.

They very well may. Then again, there are always those strange players who excel in weird splits that just don't make sense. Regardless, I think Young takes a lot of PT from JBJ initially unless Rusney proves to be a liability. Do the sox have any top flight OF prospects on the cusp? If they do, this might be a good yr to check them out. I think Rusney is a bust to be totally honest

Not just for the kid, it is a bummer for us as well. Bird was likely slated to start in AAA, but I was advocating starting him in the bigs and give ARod and Tex regular days off. Now, we are going to rely on the old farts to play more. Looks like Ackley will slide over and backup 1b and I would assume days off for ARod would entail Beltran moving to DH. Regardless, on a team of old f***s, having a young buck behind them capable of replacing their value is huge

Young protects JBJ against lefties, a situation he strangely thrived in in 2015. And for his career, he has an 80 point bump vs lefties, although that is likely skewed by his gaudy 2015. Young is ABYSMAL vs righties. He has a 137 point point OPS bump when facing a lefty over the last 3 seasons and last yr it was a 300 point bump. Young protects the lineup vs lefty pitchers. That's about it

That is a BIG blow

Station, JBJ doesn't need to hit 15HR. And based on his history, it is unlikely he could pop 15HR. If he OPS'd .750+, he'd be a top notch OFer. The problem is, outside of his insane August, he is a below replacement level hitter. That's the big question here. Can he hit for a full season, or will he be below the Mendoza line

LA is going to choke again when the playoffs come around. Greinke walks and they replace him with Maeda and Kazmir. They'll be deeper, but depth in the rotation wasn't their problem against the Mets.

I am surprised nobody has really made any sort of comment about the sox outfield and how it very well could be a significant weak link outside of Betts. Starting with Rusney, per fangraphs he has a 0.4WAR in half a season. He showed a total inability to draw walks and a genuine lack of power. This from a guy who is going into the season as the starting RFer. His defense also left much to be desired, as his defensive rating was negative, yet his overall UZR/150 was solid. He did have a really solid month of August, which made a lot of sox fans happy about what might be to come, only to crash down to earth with a pitiful September, OPS'ing .555. I get that this was his first full season and all, and he does have some solid tools, but as a starting corner OFer, he leaves a lot to be desired. His range and arm are good in RF, but he makes boneheaded plays out there. He doesn't really hit for power. He doesn't really steal bases. He doesn't walk at all. I understand that he did it all in Cuba, but he better start doing it here, or he'll be on the bench right quick. Jackie Bradley Jr is a defensive whiz, a true plus plus defender and a "should be" shoe in for GG consideration on a yearly basis. And his overall numbers offensively were very solid for him as well, with an OPS of .833. But looking deeper at that OPS, his August was an insanely ridiculous Barry Bonds on roids month. An OPS of 1.163. He had half his HR, 40% of his walks, 53% of his RBI and 53% of his runs on the season in that one month. Outside of that month, he slashed .190/.272/.366, which is pretty bad. Which JBJ will they get? I was on the bandwagon of dealing him while his value was up, but if he could even hit to a .750OPS and play his level of D, he'd be a borderline AS guy. Regardless, expecting big power out of him is unlikely, and based on his track record and his numbers outside of one otherworldly month, there is definitely a big reason for concern for this guy offensively. Mookie Betts is the star in the OF. I liked his resilience, after struggling for a bit, he came back and dominated. People seem to think his natural progression is as a 30HR guy, but I think he is a safe 20-20 player who will make good contact, take more walks as he learns the game more, hit for a high average, play at least average D and pace your team from the top of the lineup. He is the only guy I think you can assuredly look at and say he will be an offensive force in the OF. In essence, you have one budding star, one guy who has shown next to nothing on both sides of the ball and one defensive whiz who had one amazing month which bloated his overall numbers. Maybe it all works out and all 3 play well, or maybe you have one star and two slugs on the lineup card prompting a mid season deal. And before anyone brings up Chris Young, that guy can only hit lefties. Hence, he will be a platoon guy with Bradley. But Bradley actually mashed lefties last yr to the tune of a .306/.390/.528 OPS. Young wont be in there replacing the righties Rusney and Betts. So his place in the lineup is puzzling unless JBJ shows his stats last yr were a fluke.

Andrew Marchand, beat writer for the Yanks, predicted the Yanks to be in first June 1, then start to fade and actually deal off Miller and Gardner at the break to try a rebuild. Interesting

The Royals basically saw Holland leave, although he was a shell of himself last season and brought Soria back. They still have Davis and Herrera back there so that three headed monster will be real good. They add in another reclamation project in Kennedy, who could be a real nice buy low candidate and see Cueto move on. They were able to keep Gordon somehow. Their offense should be really good, their defense should be really good, their pen should be really good. Their rotation has Volquez, Ventura, Kennedy, Young and ???. Regardless, KC is gonna be good. I don't believe in Detroit, their moves were puzzling for a team on the rebuild. Minnesota should have some offense, but their rotation is abhorrent. Cleveland will miss Brantley for the beginning of the season and aside from a few positions, will have a terrible lineup. Their pen is solid, their rotation probably the best in the division, but they aren't gonna score runs. KC will win that division by 8 or 9 games this upcoming yr