jacksonianmarch

If they cut him, only a percentage counts against the lux cap. If they DFA him and he’s picked up, only the prorated portion counts to lux tax (a few days, essentially nothing). If they DFA him and then assign him to the minors, his entire but goes off the lux tax calculation.

Swihart needs to be DFA'd. The sox are gonna need to carry a few extra pitchers with a west coast jaunt that has them playing 11 in a row off the bat.

Lets look at 2018 WAR (Fangraphs) Yankees Severino- 5.7 Paxton- 3.8 Tanaka- 2.7 Happ- 3.2 Sabathia- 2.5 Red Sox Sale-6.5 Price- 2.7 Porcello- 2.7 ERod- 2.3 Eovaldi- 2.2 Total WAR, Yanks- 17.9, Sox- 16.4 Most pundits like the sox rotation better because they think David Price is still an ace and Chris Sale is a beast. Price is no longer an ace. Heck, Happ has out-WAR'd him two years running. Sale is a beast. He just may not be healthy. Our 2-5 out-WAR'd your 2-5 by 2.3 WAR. That's not insignificant. I know the injury bug can hit pitchers more than others. I know both sides have injury concerns. But where the sox have a distinct advantage (the ace slot), the injury concern is on the shoulder of the sox ace. That isn't deniable. Severino really hasn't had much in the way of injury concerns aside from a short DL stint for some elbow tightness two or three years ago. Beyond the ace spot, yes, the Yanks have two older pitchers. The sox have one in Price. Both have been very effective when healthy. Price was very effective when healthy last year too. Price has had a bad elbow that caused him to miss more than half the 2017 season and a few weeks of 2018. Paxton seems to be injured yearly. Porcello seems to continuously take the mound 30+ times. 3 of the last 4 years, Happ has as well. Tanaka has started 27 games or more 3 years running but has been DL'd in consecutive seasons for lower body issues. ERod has been DL'd the past 2 years with lower body issues. CC has an arthritic knee and just had a frickin coronary stent placed. Eovaldi is a walking DL with a twice repaired UCL. The idea that either team is head and shoulders healthier than the other is pure folly. Both sides have injury risks. I just think (and back it up by STATS) that the Yankees rotation is more well rounded with the sox having a good supporting cast behind an unquestioned ace. If the ace isn't ace-like this year due to his shoulder, the Yanks will have the better rotation. If multiple injury risks on the Yanks side go down, the sox will have the better rotation.

When did Happ end up on the sox?

That's a pretty dumb takeaway.

Your rotation is better because of one guy. Our 2-5 is better than your 2-5, IMO and in the stats from last year.

Paxton misses time every year, yet I doubt anyone is worried about his stuff suffering. The worry with Wright is that he’s got a knee that is never going to be back to what it was. The issue with Sale is he came back from a shoulder injury with a major drop in velocity and no explanation. Both of those issues point towards something either chronic or more concerning. I’m sure Paxton is gonna spend some time on the DL this year. As long as he’s ready for the postseason and still throwing gas by then, I’ll be happy

Well, the first game back when he threw harder was the followed by another lengthy DL stint. When he returned from the final DL stint, he wasn’t the same guy

Im absolutely talking about his end of season decline. He was way down from his average. Even in the World Series, his final start he was at least 3mph off from what he was prior to the DL stints.

That's the thing. He had microfracture surgery. Then came back, got hurt again and needed another procedure. Sounds like Pedroia, who everyone here is appropriately cautiously optimistic about in terms of his return. Wright is a year younger than Pedroia, had his most recent surgical procedure 4 months AFTER Pedroia did and all of a sudden, he's staunch starter depth. You have no idea he is even gonna play

I absolutely do...if healthy. If you're talking a recurrent mystery shoulder complaint causing sapped velocity and no cause, I call a labral injury. If healthy, Sale is FAR superior to Paxton. Not even close. I just think Sale is hiding a bad injury

He's been yo-yo'd back and forth between starter and relief. I want to see a consistent, relief oriented approach from the beginning. Maybe he is a long reliever and is limited to one turn of the lineup, I don't know. But what I do know is I saw him topping out at 99 out of the pen with a pretty silly slider. He needs to work more on his short stints, go all out and just use those two pitches. We were saying the same thing about Chad Green before we moved him strictly to the pen. The stuff is impressive. It's time to see if the stuff is good enough in short stints consistently

he had surgery after the playoffs!!!

Chris Sale finished the year with less innings than Paxton, has a bum shoulder and had a significant velocity decline. Probably not the best guy to be touting when you don't even know if he is healthy. And Paxton took awhile to develop. He did miss time in 2017 with arm issues, but his missed time in 2018 was due to being hit by a comebacker. I would take Paxton's likelihood to succeed over Sale's based on the injuries alone.

That’s what I’m saying. I’d like to see him as a full time reliever

Kimbrel isn't signing for one season. Signing Kimbrel will mean saying goodbye to another of your FA's next year. This is why he isn't coming back to Boston. I wouldn't be surprised if Kimbrel has a Britton type offer in his pocket but is holding out for more.

That is entirely dependent on the hitting and good luck. Johnson had a 4.7xFIP. Velasquez had a 4.6xFIP. Both players are replacement level at best. The fact that you won the games they pitched is irrelevant as to whether they are good or not. Wright is good depth...if he can stay healthy. People seem to forget he had ANOTHER knee surgery in November. This after having microfracture surgery earlier in the year on the same knee. Expecting him to be reliable is just plain dumb

Johnson and Velasquez are your only major league options should your rotation falter or be injured until Wright proves he can be healthy (which is about 2 years and counting where he has not been). They're not good depth, but they're your best depth. With perennial DL candidate ERod, Mr Tingle's elbow/hand in the cold, Eovaldi's bionic and frequently failing elbow and Sale's worrisome shoulder, having depth options will be paramount for the sox. Johnson will be kept on the roster as long as the sox can keep him. Now, if he blows chunks every time he takes the mound, then the decision is easy. But they're gonna hold him as insurance. With 4 guys having injury issues over the past season, the likelihood that nobody goes down for a stretch is pretty low so I expect you will be using him. Velasquez will be Johnson insurance or catastrophe insurance should multiple rotation options go down. The fact that he has options points towards him starting in AAA

Either way, this team is stacked and with all the options, their implementation will be very important in how we do. Boone is going to need to be on his game this year and not be gun-shy about using his pen. If the above is how our team will be put together, we will have 6 closer level performance relievers. We clearly don't want to wear them out, but we also don't want to be coaxing a 5th or 6th inning out of CC when our pen will do the job better. I expect Happ to hand the ball off in the 6th on the average day. I expect CC to hand the ball off after 5 almost every game he throws. The only guys who should regularly be giving 6IP or more are Sevy and Paxton with Tanaka giving us 6IP and out every turn of the rotation. Boone's insistence on sticking with Sevy and CC the final two games of our season may have been useless or could have been the driving force behind our playoff exit. He needs to take a bit more of a Girardi-an approach this season. Our rotation should be consistently good. Our bullpen should be consistently dominant. Use the weapons you have, don't leave them on the shelf. In terms of the infield, he will have multiple options as well. We added Tulo and Lemahieu to the infield. Tulo could be good or terrible or hurt. No real way to count on his production. If he produces, great. If not, we need to be quick with his exit. I would mostly be looking for slowness in his game. If the bat speed isn't there, if the first step is slow, if the arm slowed. If he looks old or hurt, shutter him. If he looks quick and healed, then see how he will do. This will be an intergral part in our early season success. Sticking with an aging Tulo if he sucks could cost us games, especially when we have a good replacement behind him. Lemahieu is a consistent, albeit not spectacular offensive contributor. It is clear he changed his approach last year to add in more power. While it worked, his approach changed and his walk rate dropped. In this lineup, I would tell him to go back to the OBP, singles hitter he is. He is a big time opposite field hitter, actually he has the highest percentage of oppo hits in the majors over the past few years. This could add to his "power" with the YS right field porch. Either way, we need a few guys who can hit .290/.360/.400 and K less than 15%. I'd take that over .270/.300/.450. With all the walks and homers and K's our lineup produces, having another good contact, high average hitter will really help. But the question right now is, where does he play? That is going to be Boone's toughest choice and one that will get tougher if Tulo plays well and Didi returns. If Tulo doesn't play well, then Lemahieu goes to 2b and Torres slots in at SS. If Tulo plays well or when Didi returns, I think you'll see a lot of Lemahieu at 3b unless Andujar really shows his defensive shortcomings are in the past (which I think he is more than capable of doing). Then there is the 1b conundrum. Andujar could slot over to 1b, but that removes Voit from the lineup. Voit had one of the highest "hard hit" percentages in baseball. His exit velocity was 11th in baseball. His August-Sept combo was one for the ages. He also showed he is more than capable of using the Stadium's RF porch. He is a heck of a complement to this lineup. I don't expect him to hit .350 again, but there's certainly enough in his game to hit .260 and with his power and eye, he could be a .900OPS addition. Or he could flop disastrously and then we turn to Bird, who is no guarantee either. If Tulo plays well and we get nothing out of 1b, we could slide Andujar over and use Lemahieu at 3b or just use Lemahieu at 1b. The options and redundancy are nearly limitless and should be enough to keep our players fresh, which is a good thing. The outfield will be interesting as well. We brought Gardner back for what I think is one last hurrah. Gone are the 40SB days. Gone are the 15+ homer days (not many of those). But one thing that really played into his bad season last year was an abnormally low BABIP. As a speedy guy, he has averaged a BABIP of .310 (higher prior to 2018), but last year dropped 40 points down to .270. His K rate and walk rate were right around his prior seasons. While expecting him to return to his prime is not realistic, getting a .260/.350/.400 season is not unrealistic with 10-12HRs and 15-20SB's if he plays a full season. That is clearly not a guarantee. You have Hicks in CF and Judge in RF. Those guys aren't going to move unless injured. Ellsbury is still kicking around, although likely on the outside looking in. In any other team's lineup, Clint Frazier would be inserted into LF and Gardner would take a back seat. Unfortunately for that kid, our lineup is very RH dominant and Frazier looks to be a platoon bat at the outset with Gardner, assuming he makes the team at all. Complicating matters is the fact that Stanton is an OFer, and a pretty good one. The problem with Stanton has been soft tissue injuries and keeping his bat in the lineup has taken precedent over taking the field. Should Gardner scuffle and Frazier get hurt again there is a good chance we would see Stanton out there. Also, should Sanchez prove to not be able to catch, Stanton could come out to the OF. Also, should Andujar prove not useful in the field, Stanton could get to LF. Lots of options. How Boone plays those options will be vital to overtaking the sox and winning the East.

First off, last year was a terrible year for relief free agents to begin with. Then consider that the three best on the market all went to Colorado and you probably have your reasoning as to why none went above the 1.0 WAR line. Relievers, by nature, are volatile. This offseason, you’ve had some of the most consistent and dominant ones hit the market. Not dipping into the market may prove to be the Sox downfall in 2019, especially if the Sox have to spend prospects AND money for relief at the deadline when it could just cost cash now

Cessa has never been a FT reliever. His arm is very lively. His breaking ball has some bite. I’d like to see him be a full timer out there before giving up on him

I doubt very highly that Kimbrel returns to Boston for the sheer fact that it would put the sox over that last line again. That would only deepen the fall in terms of player development

With pitchers and catchers reporting, it is time to put up the season thread. It will be a long and hopefully fun journey for Yankee fans from pitchers and catchers all the way through the world series. With ST starting, it is time to look at lineups, rotations and rosters. The Lineup With Didi Gregorius likely to start the year on the 60 day DL, we will be missing a presence in the lineup. So come opening day, these are the projected lineups vs LHP and RHP IMO vs LHP 1. Torres 2B 2. Judge RF 3. Stanton LF 4. Sanchez C 5. Andujar DH 6. Hicks CF 7. Voit 1B 8. Tulowitzki SS 9. Lemahieu 3B vs RHP 1. Torres 2B 2. Judge RF 3. Hicks CF 4. Stanton DH 5. Sanchez C 6. Andujar 3B 7. Voit/Bird? 1B 8. Tulowitzki/Lemahieu SS 9. Gardner LF On the position player side, we are only going to see 13 players. We already have some internal redundancy. These are the candidates for those 13 spots 1. Sanchez C 2. Romine vs Higashioka C- Higashioka has the higher offensive upside, Romine the better glove. With Sanchez' surgery and defensive issues, the winner will likely be Romine 3. Voit 1B 4. Lemahieu UTIL 5. Torres 2B/SS 6. Tulowitzki SS 7. Andujar 3B/1B 8. Gardner LF 9. Hicks CF 10. Stanton OF/DH 11. Judge RF 12. 13. Those final two spots will be between 3 players. Greg Bird, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Clint Frazier. Frazier has options, so he could theoretically return to the minors. Ellsbury hasn't played in over a year and has lost many steps in the interim. There is a strong chance he is the odd man out if healthy enough to play (no given) and could end up DFA'd. Bird is no stranger to the DL, but with the team heavily RHH dependent and a need for lefty power, I think Bird still carves out a niche. The big questions will come when Didi returns. If Tulo is playing well when Didi is back, which player is then sent packing? We may have other injuries at that time, but the idea is interesting. Pitching Staff 1. Severino 2. Paxton 3. Tanaka 4. Happ 5. Sabathia 6. Chapman 7. Betances 8. Britton 9. Ottavino 10. Green 11. Holder 12. ?? The pitching side is a little less dramatic. If everyone is healthy, IMO, the final slot goes to Tommy Kahnle. But there are other players likely to make a bid. Luis Cessa is out of options and can run it up there to 99mph in short outings. He has the stuff to be a great reliever, but hasn't shown he can avoid bats well enough to stick. Domingo German still has options left, so he is likely headed to the minors to work on being a starter. His stuff is great, but he also has a problem missing bats. Jonathan Loaisiga made his debut last year, but my bet is he is stashed in AAA to be rotation depth. Chance Adams should be fully recovered from the elbow surgery that limited his stuff early last season. He could make a run if the velocity he showed in the minors late in 2018 stays with him. The guy who will be the biggest sleeper is Stephen Tarpley. He's a lefty reliever who throws low 90s, but has been death on lefties and has 4 pitches, so he can at least hold his own vs righties. He might sneak past everyone early on, as a mop up pitcher is a little less needed with the days off built into the early going

The Yanks may have been in on Machado, but once we inked Lemahieu, our cap number rose past the first lux tax line. Signing Manny or Harper would put us over or dangerously close to that final barrier. I don't think Cashman will ever cross that with the draft penalty attached. I can definitively say we are out on either of them unless we trade off a commensurate contract.

Peak is back to where it should be sans PEDs. Most players start to fade around age 33. Pre-prime 20-25 Prime 25-32 Productive post prime 33-35 Unproductive post prime 36+ This is more relative than absolute, but when throwing out an 8 year deal, you need to consider it. On an 8 year deal, Machado will conclude the deal at age 34. It’s not unreasonable to assume Machado will give 5-6 prime years and finish the deal with 2 reasonably good years