jacksonianmarch

Bogaerts has said from the beginning that he’s going year to year and he will test FA, so in essence he has already said that. Betts has said practically nothing and toed the line as a good soldier on the field. The thing we all need to realize with Betts is that he has all the leverage. There’s almost no point to an extension now. Might as well see what the open market gives him. He’s got $30 mil in the bank with a guarantee of $16 mil more next year with a strong likelihood of earning far more than that with another great season. The days of him signing a team friendly extension we’re gone once he got $10 mil in his first arb season.

When you’re that small, a little twinge or mobility reduction is magnified. Pedroia will never be back to how he felt before hurting the knee. He’s not going to play 120 games, and he’s probably going to have minus range for the first time in his career. If he can give you 90 games of good offensive production and make up for lack of range with his usual steady glovework, then he’ll be an asset. That’s about all the Sox can hope for right now

You’ve got 3 more days to the two week mark. Like I’ve said before, the beginning of the spring is ramp up and experimentation. The last two weeks is endurance and stuff. Nobody wins opening day spots in early spring. Guys can lose a spot, but nobody earns one late Feb early March. Guys earn spots in the second half of spring.

I honestly think that Devers is your 1b in 2020 and Chavis ends up either dealt for parts this season or is a candidate to play a CIF/COF utility/DH role after JD opts out. Chavis is not a good defender at all. Dalbec might end up as your 3b of the future from a defensive standpoint, but his swing and miss tendencies muddy his offensive projection. There is a good chance DD fills 3b with a veteran guy who can produce 1.5-2WAR but lock up the defense and cost very little. Right now, Devers being forced into the 3b slot is clearly a stall tactic due to personnel. That kid is so thick in the legs and slow on the first step that he will never be defensively average at 3b. DD is just waiting for the personnel to clear before he puts him where he belongs long term. This is a Miguel Cabrera deal all over again (albeit the kid hasn't shown Cabrera type offense, but few have).

As much as I’d like to pile on here, I agree with cp. ST means really nothing. The only thing I actually look at is the stuff of pitchers starting about two weeks prior to opening day. I don’t look at the hitters at all. The beginning of ST for veteran players is meant for them to get ready, avoid injury and test situations. I was watching a Sox ST game the other week and Holt was on talking about what to work on. He said for two or three games he was working on hitting with two strikes. So he took to get to two strikes in every at bat. That’s not an adequate way to gauge a player if he’s taking intentionally to get to two strikes. Pitchers early in spring may choose a pitch to work on. So they’ll throw only fastballs and let’s say changeups so they can work on a pitch. If the changeup is the fourth pitch, then they’re depriving themselves of their two best out pitches. Wait one more week, then see who is starting to put it all together. And I’d take nothing away from the offense. ST is for pitchers, the hitters don’t need this long

Stop taking the bait

One thing to come out of Yankee camp is that they will not platoon 1b. Lemahieu is the backup for 3 infield positions with Gleyber having the ability to slide to SS in case of a Tulo injury. With that being said, either Voit or Bird will make the team. Both are having good spring's, but unless someone gets hurt, I would assume it is Voit's job to lose.

They’ll start with a committee and someone will stand out or they’ll make a move to add someone. With the Sox offense and starters, they’ll have a large amount of leads to protect and with the middle relief being suspect, those leads will likely be small (ie lots of save chances). Brasier and Barnes will each get their shot

Having stuff and throwing strikes does not always a great pitcher make. Guys, take a look at the season from Domingo German last year as an example. 3.5 BB/9IP, 10+K/9IP and a 95 mph average fastball with two plus movement secondary pitches, yet he had a mid 5’s ERA. Why is that? Because while he could limit the walks, his command in the zone left something to be desired. 15 years ago, if you could sit 95+ and top out around 100 like German and Feltman can do, you were pretty hard to hit. Now, everyone throws like that and hitters can hit it. You now must command those fastballs and those nasty sliders. You must set the batter up. You need to know your sequencing and have the confidence to know which pitches work so you can shake the catcher off. Command in the zone takes some time. I’m not saying German is junk, actually I think he’ll be a very good pitcher shortly, but that learning experience will be valuable for him. Experiencing some failure and focusing on honing the craft is a very important part of a professional athletes ability to succeed. Feltman hasn’t had that yet. Maybe he won’t need it. Maybe he just dominates all the way through. But most players, even the greats, had to learn the lesson of failure and make it their greatest teacher. Better to have that happen in AAA than blowing games in the bigs

That’s what I’m saying. I’m not knocking the kid. Just that he’ll need more seasoning. That could come in april and May in AA, June and July in AAA and he’s in Boston by August. Just that there’s no way he’s coming to Boston from Florida

KRod spent full seasons in A and A+ ball and spent time in both AA and AAA before he made a late season debut for the Angels in 2002. Aroldis Chapman was already pitching in the Cuban league and starring there, which is considered the equivalent of AAA here. Street is the better comp, although he did see time in AA the year he was drafted and debuted out of the gate the following season. Jansen was a converted hitter who was nearing the end of his team control. The Dodgers threw him out there and he dominated. I’m not saying Feltman won’t be good. But for a team expected to contend for a title, he’s not a great bet to skip over the upper levels and succeed out of the gate

The same was said about Craig Hansen and we know how that turned out. There is more than just stuff to be learned in the minors. Progressing through is not to be taken lightly

The MLBPA gave up the stronger lux tax penalties and didn't really get anything in the deal. The stronger penalties have turned the top bracket into a salary cap while really encouraging teams to stay below the first line after multiple years of exceeding it. The MLBPA should fight this. Maybe owners have learned their lesson and aren't willing to dish out big contracts for older players. Well then, lessen the control on rookies and the players will hit the market earlier. The owners and the players don't want a salary floor. With a salary floor will come a hard salary cap. In baseball, you don't have what you have in the other leagues. Some teams are raking in no money and are subsidized by the rest of the league. Those teams cannot come close to the cap or else become bankrupt. The cap will only limit a select few teams while not increasing the impetus of the low income squads and you'll run into what you ran into these past two seasons. If I were Tony Clark, I would offer the owners two options. 1. No luxury tax or 2. Lux tax caps as is without progressive penalties and draft pick or INTL fund machinations while shortening rookie control to 4 years and arb after 2. I would also add in a year of service time being activated at ANY point during a season. This would get rid of the manipulation

Betts has literally no impetus to take an extension now beyond perceived market value. He made $10 mil last year. He’s making $20 mil this year. Even if he has a horrendous, injury plagued 2019 season, the Sox are going to hang onto him for 2020 and the lowest he can get in arb is $16 mil (20% drop from prior year). He’s essentially guaranteed to make $46 mil from 18-20 with a strong chance of something bigger in 2020. He’s now made life altering money. The next paycheck is a legacy check. It’s not just about him, it’s about the players after him. He owes it to the other players to maximize his worth. This is why you try and extend players like Beni when they have sub $1 mil deals in place and you can guarantee them a windfall in exchange for trading in a year of the FA clock. Think about this. If you’re a professional baseball player, playing a thousand miles from your home, what does it matter if it’s in Boston, NY, Philly, Toronto, etc (outside of taxes). And while yes, the amount of money is ridiculous, but the more you make during your prime, the even higher the amount you’ll have when you’re done. It’s capitalist to take the money, especially when you’re already guaranteed a ridonculous sum.

I entirely understand why Wright did what he did. What I don’t understand is why he didn’t tell the team in the offseason. I get he has a contract, but that can be voided. I think the Sox will likely release him at the end of his suspension assuming the pen has received reinforcements by then and he’ll have pissed off the one organization that kept giving him chances

If I were the Cashman, I’d start extension talks with Judge. We have him for four more seasons and he will have his first FA season when he turns 31. Not exactly an enticing FA market for an older player. Plus, Judge is in pre arb for one more year, so we could bargain against that small sum. If we announce after the start of the season, the AAV hit doesn’t start til 2020, so it’s not a problem lux tax wise for 2019. I’d give him a nice signing bonus so he gets some cash in 2019. But something like a 4 year deal with an option would be really good for him (which would add 2 years of control if 2019 isn’t touched). The FA years would have to be bought out rather highly, I’d say a 4 yr $60 mil deal starting in 2020 with a $25 mil team option for a 5th year

Leclerc took a guaranteed humongous payday while leaving bigger paydays on the table in the event of injury. He was smart. He was still pre arb and has not made any money yet

You still may get the same player, but you lose $500K of draft pool which is very important when you try to sign cases that fall due to signability

They’re talking about the 2020 draft. Signing Kimbrel will push them past the upper threshold for the 2019 season as well. The Sox are already picking 10 spots back in 2019 due to overages in 2018

There are no “knee medications” that have HGH in them

I thought you said Sheffield was trash? Come on man, be consistent

Where do you get Sevy and TJS? You’re dealing with the wrong joint

What a tool. He’s done in Boston. Well, there goes some insurance out in that pen

He probably looked at his data and created an excuse. There is no singular excuse for Gray beyond tiny cajones. She shrunk under the pressure. His slider must have been f***ing awesome on the road. Lights out. At home, the NY air took away the bite. Enjoy Cincy, otherwise known as baseball hell

I think he misses the first turn and is back the second. The suspension is the bigger deterrent right now