jacksonianmarch

If Sevy comes back throwing 5mph slower, then I’ll be very, very concerned

Ellsbury doesn’t factor into our plans this year regardless. Gregorius was known to be out at the beginning of the off-season, which is why we have LeMahieu. Tanaka has been pitching with this for years. Hicks has a sore back with no structural deficit and will be back within the next week or two. The biggest concern here, is clearly Severino. If this is just a sore shoulder and he returns at the end of April as prognosticated, then we are going to be very strong in the rotation. As we all know, shoulders can be tricky. If this ends up being a more significant injury, we are going to need to make an acquisition or hope that some of our live armed kids can fill the need until Montgomery he returns. I would anticipate that with the preseason expectations being hyped up on this team, that we wouldn’t leave this in the hands of an untested rookie.

What I meant on Gio is that he’d be a couple weeks behind anyway. He would likely miss the first turn off the rotation. If the timeline proves correct, that means there will only be three starts for Gio. With us having 2 to 3 major-league quality arms in the upper minors and having Montgomery returning around the All-Star break, having Gonzalez seems redundant especially when his quality is in question. Now that can clearly change if the Severino prognosis is altered. I think the acquisition cost would be the deterrent here. If we could get him on a three to $4 million deal, then he’s worth it. I have a feeling he is holding out for a longer-term deal and will likely sign with someone who has a clear need within the next week or two.

I put in the Yankee thread the projected schedule to maximize the use of our rotation. I have Loaisiga throwing once and German throwing 3 times with a projected Sevy return in Anaheim on April 25. Of the four games our depth guys throw, 3 will be vs Detroit or KC and one will be vs Houston (probably get racked that day).

Looking at the schedule, I anticipate we open with Loaisiga getting a spot start in the 4 hole and CC relieving him after one turn. German will be in the 5 hole and Severino will relieve him (if he’s healthy) on April 25 in Anaheim. March 28- Paxton March 29- off March 30- Happ March 31- Tanaka April 1- Loaisiga April 2- Paxton April 3- German April 4- Happ April 5- off April 6- Tanaka April 7- Paxton April 8- Sabathia April 9- Happ April 10- German April 11- off April 12- Tanaka April 13- Paxton April 14- Sabathia April 15- off April 16- Happ April 17- Tanaka April 18- Paxton April 19- Sabathia April 20- German April 21- Happ April 22- Tanaka April 23- Paxton April 24- Sabathia April 25- Severino in Anaheim Not an ideal start, but going this route allows us to throw Loaisiga once vs Detroit. German throws 3 times vs Detroit, Houston and KC. Of those 4 games where we use our #6 and 7 starter, only one is vs a good team (Houston). This clearly assumes no rain outs and good health from the others, but if the timetable proves right, we can be whole after April 20th. We shall see. Shoulders are tricky and if he ramps up in two weeks and is still stiff, he’s gonna miss most of the year or all of it

It’s a reasonable idea, but I don’t think it’s necessary. Gio isn’t that big of an upgrade over German and Loiasiga and with Gio not being started on his throwing program, he won’t be ready to start by opening day anyway.

No, he won’t be back by opening day. Looking like a late April return from what Boone is saying. They’ll bring him along slowly. If German is holding his own, they’ll probably push Sevy into May.

No tear, just inflammation. He’ll rest for 2 weeks then pick a ball up again. This knocks him out for opening day, but gives the chance he returns mid April

The one thing you need to consider is the possibility that the rebuild is longer than you think. Most sox fans see the rebuild the Yanks made and think that's achievable, but look at the prospects that graduated since then. Outside of maybe Chavis, are there any other guys capable of being an all star caliber player? The Yanks held on from the remnants of the 2009 title team just long enough to need only a single season of rebuilding (2016) while not dealing away their prospects. Maybe the sox do that? Maybe they keep enough of the band together to be a .500+ level team and grow talent without dealing them, then have one year of firesale and really re-stock. I have no idea. But knowing Dombrowski, he is going to hold off on re-setting as long as he possibly can, then he will let someone else clean up the mess

It depends on what you want. Eovaldi was a post TJS starter with okay results in TB. Pearce was a 35 yr old platoon 1b. If you want the best talent available, you will need to pay top prospect dollar.

That would be a pretty terrible injury for sure if serious. He’s had shoulder tightness before and turned out okay, but any time you have it, there’s a chance of badness. I heard of this guy named Keuchel who might be available?

One of the guys at MLBTR tried to quantify a Betts extension. He thought $35 mil a year for 8 years at FA will likely be his cost. So 8 years, $280 mil and then consider $20 mil this year and $30 mil next. So if the Sox want to just keep him right now, it’s a 10 year $330 mil deal

The only way you “reset” in a season is if your farm is ready to bring up multiple prospects and you have a season where you can deal off some assets. The Sox don’t have that kind of farm and I doubt the Sox are going to sell off anyone this season. There’s a reason why it’s called a cliff. If the Sox reset after 2019, you’re likely keeping one player from the Porcello, Sale, JDM, Bogaerts bunch. Subtracting 3 of those players will make your team middling. If DD tries to keep the band together and finds a way to keep 3 of those guys, 2020 will be a good season, but you won’t have the space to keep Betts or JBJ the following year. What we have seen teams try to do is avoid being middling. Picking in the 10-18 range in the draft does get you some talent, but does substantially decrease the talent obtained from the 1-10 spots. Add that to the added draft pool and IFA pool, and being a middling team kills the ability to add more talent later on in the draft while also killing your fan base. Now DD could reset then splurge after 2020, but what’ll that get you? You’ll be paying through the nose still for Pedroia and Price. You’ll presumably have Betts signed. Beni will start getting expensive as will ERod and you’ll be devoid of your most powerful bat and your best arm. Add to that the fact that the Sox are in a division with a team on the upswing without the long term financial constraints and without the need to lock up a superstar within the next two seasons and you’re looking to turn the hammer into the nail in this division. I’d also like to add that Dombrowski has done this for a long time. He’s 63 and has a few titles under his belt now. Once the financial constraint blow this team apart, he’s leaving. He’s not going to rebuild at his age and with his resume. He’s already accomplished his mission. My bet is DD rides out this season. If the Sox are as good as everyone thinks they are, he uses duct tape and bubble gum to keep as many of his big FAs as he can for 2020. After 2020, when even more difficult decisions come to play, he’ll likely saunter off into the sunset and allow his deputy to take over

Brad Brach joins a growing list of players charging MLB owners with collusion. The players haven’t actually publicized any evidence until Brach did yesterday. Brach said that he had almost no contact with teams until very late in the FA season. Once teams starting coming to his door, they were coming with the same 1 year, $3-ish million dollar offers. This is similar to the early 2000s, when players like Fernando Vina were given the exact same contract offers in FA and it was later found to be collusion. The owners agreed to pay $12 mil to the MLBPA and avoid admitting the charges back then. I anticipate the players are suspecting the same thing now.

Your bullpen might be surprisingly good? I guess there's always a chance, but you and I both know the chances are infinitesimally small

I never predicted the Yanks would win the ALE in 16 or 17. I said they were the favorites in 2018, which they were, although losing one of their best hitters dropped their ability rather quickly. But you wouldn’t recall that because you’re too busy hiding under bridges and eating billy goats

Very interesting now that the dust has settled on the Machado and Harper signings. Harper gets 13 years. Machado gets 10. Machado gets the higher AAV and the opt out. Harper gets a full no trade and the largest sum guaranteed to anyone, ever. I’m surprised to see Harper so interested in remaining in one place and not setting the market for AAV. Boras said he got some short term deals for $45 mil AAV. I entirely wonder if those “short term” deals were 1 yr deals. I don’t discount the possibility that Boras isn’t lying. Getting a prime Harper for $45 mil for one year is likely still going to be a money making proposition. This sets me back to Mookie. He’s a better player than both Harper and Machado. He’ll be 2 hrs older than both when he hits the market. Also, I think Mookie is the kind of guy who doesn’t mind going year to year. I wonder if Mookie asks for what Harper was being offered on a short term deal over 2 seasons then an opt out of a longer term deal to cash in again at 30. Something like 2 years $90 mil then an opt out, then 6 years $150 mil after that. Total value 8 years $240 mil, but the opportunity to make $45 mil AAV the first two seasons then hit the market again

Pink hat

Boone is clearly inferior to Cora. I also don’t think the Sox offense is inferior to NY’s. I’ve made a case that our ridiculous injuries in 2018 led to our offense being inferior and the projected health should lead to equivalence. Ive also said that starting staff to starting staff gets and edge towards the Sox solely based on the left arm of Chris sale and his health.

Spring stats don’t matter. I am puzzled, though, as to why most here think the Sox are going to have a good pen. You’ve got guys with devastating injuries with no idea how they’d return (Thorburg). Players with no track record coming off a good 3 months (Brasier). Players with a long track record of crap performance (Hembree). You’ve got a good reliever elevating to a new role he hasn’t proven he can handle (Barnes). How in the world are you all expecting good things out of this universally panned pen squad? It’s not like your rotation is the 2005 White Sox. The average IP for your starters per start last year was around 5.6. That means you’re pen, on average, needs to get 10 outs per game. Outside of blind hometown, put something out there that shows this squad can be held together enough to not slip significantly in the standings

He’s shown more than a ridiculously unlucky and injury plagued yea. You’ll see. He’ll drop 30 bombs on the season this year and be the best offensive catcher in baseball.

Disagree entirely. He did cheat, but he owned up to it. Low character is Clemens who continues to maintain his innocence and even threw his own wife under the bus

I don’t think the top 4 changes outside of the Yanks taking the division and the Sox being WC 1. That could change based on injury or pen additions. WC 2 to me looks like the Rays to lose. I know Oakland won 97 games last year, but teams held together with duct tape and chicken wire usually don’t last more than a season. I think their offense will be good, but their best pitcher blew out his shoulder and I just don’t think they’re going to repeat this year. I like what the Rays did in the off-season and more than that, I like what they have coming back. There’s a strong chance they’ll pair the 2018 CY with the 2019 ROY in Honeywell, assuming he returns well from TJS. Deleon is good too and should be back near the beginning of the year. The offensive additions should help as should the veteran leadership of a guy like Morton.

What a homer moron

You want JBJ to look like a total dog in the spring. Remember, he’s gonna be white hot for a month or two, okay for a month and abysmal for the rest. Don’t want to burn a hot month when the games don’t count