For 2020 assuming no re-signing JD, Bogey or Porcello, fixed costs are as follows
Sale $29 mil
Price $31 mil
Pedroia $14 mil
Pablo $5 mil
Vasquez $4 mil
Eovaldi $17 mil
Arb
Betts $30 mil
ERod $8 mil
Bradley $12 mil
Beni $5 mil
That’s $155 mil right there. Still gonna need to withhold $15 mil for medical and another $10 mil for other arb players and you’re up to $180 mil. You’d be down a starting pitcher, 1b, SS, DH. You’d have $28 mil to fill those holes. My question is whether you go hard for Bogey and give him years over AAV (10 yr $230 mil contract) let JD and Porcello walk and replace the 5th starter, 1B and DH slots internally with Johnson, Dalbec and Chablis. You might be able to do that and sneak under the first threshold, but that leaves you no wiggle room and without JD, Pearce/Moreland and Porcello. Probably not enough to win it all, but could still be a 2nd level WC squad