jacksonianmarch

You need to time it right. Henry and the Sox absolutely did, and kudos to them. They had a farm system that everyone was jealous of. The Yanks made it a point years in advance that they were going to reset. The Dodgers quietly reset as well. When the two cash titans in the league stayed back and waited out their big contracts, DD struck by getting prime players for either big money or big prospects. The Sox were in a different place. Outside of two ill fated contracts in Pablo and Hanley, the Sox were in a pretty good place financially. They didn’t rebuild, the reloaded. Not every team is ready to add star talent and succeed. Henry saw the window and hired DD to execute it. Now, the yanks reload is complete and their financial picture is improving as the Sox window is nearing its end and their financial picture is cloudier. It was a good move. I also think Henry asked himself why he should be on the same timeline as the Yanks. He’s seen that narrative before and decided to jump the gun and he won

And all that spending only bought us one title from 01-13. We got too top heavy and didn’t have the renewable farm talent needed to suppress the values and get prime production. We got production for our money, but we were paying prime dollars for post prime production

FsB, the problem with those league minimum salaries is that there’s a significant chance all or some of them will absolutely suck. When you’re proposing open a window, the margin becomes razor thin and you need to have reliable output from a thin group of kids. This is what happens when you get towards the end of a window. Mediocre prospects reach the bigs and end up being mediocre or worse. Yes, JBJ’s value is tied up in defense. Yes, it’s likely to fall off. But replacing the 2019 or 2020 JBJ with a guy who doesn’t hit or field as well will hurt your team

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/new-york-yankees/payroll/ This is the best lux tax estimator I’ve seen. Spotrac added the lux tax implication and it’s spot on

Biceps strain. Frazier to be called up. The hits keep on coming

All the talk about extensions for the sox got me thinking about the Yanks and their lux tax scenario. Here is how it projects into 2020 and 2021 2019- The Yankees are at $217 mil right now 2020- Things change a bit. Gardner and Sabathia definitely move on. I am assuming Chapman doesn't opt out as Kimbrel's situation is a cautionary tale for any effective closer. Betances becomes a FA, and with his shoulder barking, he might end up moving on too. Didi also hits the market. Right now, the lux tax implications locked in for 2020 are $168 mil. That doesn't take into account arb, which starts getting pricey in 2020 and more so the years after. In 2020, Green, Judge, Montgomery, Paxton and Sanchez all hit arbitration. Sanchez, Green and Judge are first timers. There are other players hitting too, but guys like Bird and Cessa aren't going to be breaking the bank barring a remarkable turnaround. I'm assuming Judge follows a Betts pattern and goes for $10 mil. Paxton will be in his final year and should make upwards of $15 mil assuming good health. Sanchez is really going to depend on this year. Arb looks at the last 2 seasons and with Sanchez having an injury marred and awful 2018, he will need a huge 2019 to tip the scales. My guess is $3 mil or so for him. Green, assuming continued success, should see somewhere in the $3 mil range as well. Add in medicals at $15 mil and the other arb guys adding up to about $5 mil, the Yanks number would jump to $219 mil. It gives us a $29 mil buffer to add one big piece or multiple small ones. 2021- This is probably the most interesting season, barring any major additions in the offseason. Happ (presumably), Lemahieu, Tanaka, and Ellsbury go off the books. Britton can opt out or in. Judge goes into arb year 2, which jumps him up to $20 mil. The rest, who knows. We will have a ton of flexibility, but Andujar and Torres start the arb process. We will have a pen that is expected to contain Green, Holder, Britton, Ottavino and Chapman. We should have a rotation headed by Severino and Montgomery. I assume we would try to extend Paxton. I would also assume any pitching addition from the year prior would carry over. Maybe, we would try to keep Tanaka. Pretty fluid process to this point

He is an analytics guy. Girardi was a traditional guy who liked using matchups. Big difference. Although for an analytics guy, he sure likes to stick to the traditional fast guy leading off thing too much. Gardner sees pitches, but then goes to the pine. He is no longer fit for starter duty or leadoff duty

There absolutely be a cliff. There are windows and cliffs (or resets) for every team. For small market teams, it is when stars get pricey. Their windows are limited by the cheap control over their players. For large market clubs, their windows are limited by massive contracts for declining players or massive contracts that don't allow building of depth. If the sox re-sign Betts and keep JDM at the same AAV, the sox will have $168 mil tied up in 7 players for 2021. When you factor in arb costs for Beni, Devers, ERod, and Barnes, you are looking at a significant chunk of change. Beni will be in year 2 of arb, Devers year 1, and Barnes and Erod in their final years. Those 4 alone are likely to take you from $168 mil to the lux tax limit of $210 mil. That will leave you $25 mil to fill out the rest of your team (minus medicals). The positions from now that would be open would be 1B, CF, 2B/UTIL (I don't think Pedroia can be counted on to ever play full time again), SP3, and nearly the entire pen beyond Brasier and Barnes. Outside of those guys mentioned above, the sox would need to cover 14 spots on the 25 man. If you consider that Price or Sale are not at the top of their game come that time (possible), then you will need more production from a suddenly thin rotation. This is how you crumble. You have major needs without guys ready to step in. DD has pushed the cliff past 2020. I expect 2020 to be a playoff type year for the sox as 2019. But 2021, the final year of the CBA, will be when you start to drop off

I went over the lux tax implications in another thread. JD returning would definitely make filling out a roster really difficult. But then again, keeping him makes your lineup more potent. I honestly think DD is hoping that JD opts out so he can avoid paying for his down years. DH types got real cheap of late and JD is good enough to demand a strong return for his production. I could see the sox offering a QO, letting him walk and signing an Edwin Encarnacion type for a year at a time and rolling that way

Agreed. The Yanks left a ton of baserunners on. Last year, we started slow then caught fire and kept rolling. It also happened the year before. I am not worried about the long term viability of this team. I am worried that our manager is a doofus and continues to play games like we have a 20 game lead in the division. Last night, Britton was available, down 1 in the top of the 8th inning. Instead, he goes with the rookie Tarpley and we give up a couple runs. Predictably, we score a run in the 9th but cannot score the 3 needed to extend the game. Its the same narrative as the day before. Down 2 late, he tries to coax a second inning out of Holder. The defense and Holder allow 2 runs. We then score two runs and lose by 2.

DD has doubled down on extending the window. It is a good strategy as your farm lacks star power. The problem with it is it deepens the cliff. I am also very surprised that Henry is willing to go to the 50% tax mark while spending right up to and possibly over the final tax limit. If DD goes right to the limit in 2020, he will pay $10 mil for the first threshold and $13 mil for the second. I am surprised he would drop $23 mil in lux tax spending. That being said, when you have a title team, you extend as long as you can to keep it going. To become a good team, DD dealt off a solid farm. To maintain greatness you pick at the bottom of the draft. To spend as much as they did, you lose draft capital and FA return capital plus INTL capital. It is the anti Ben, but it won you a title and flags fly forever. The problem is, when this starts to crumble, it is going to take a LONG time to fix. I also think this move almost necessitates JBJ moving on after 2020 as you'll have to allocate his money to Betts plus arb raises. Let's say that after this year, the sox keep JDM and in 2020, the sox re-sign Mookie to a $35 mil AAV deal. Here will be the deals on the books for 2021 Price $31 mil Pedroia $14 mil Sale $29 mil Bogaerts $20 mil Eovaldi $17 mil Betts $35 mil JDM $22 mil (assuming an extension) That's $168 mil in 7 players. The limit will be $210 mil. You'll have to pay ERod for his final arb year, Beni for his second arb year, Devers for his first arb year, Barnes for his final arb year and replace JBJ, Porcello, Moreland, Pearce, Holt, etc on the cheap. Thankfully for you, Pedroia will be off the books in 2022 and Price in 2023, but those two years are probably going to be leaner years. But DD did a good job in propping the window open for this year and next

Yet Vaz is only 4, so only add $1 mil. I think the arb numbers are light. I’d say somewhere along the $5 mil mark light in total ($1 mil for Beni, $2 mil for ERod, $1 mil for Bradley, $1 mil for Barnes). So take that $228 mil and raise it to $234 mil. 2020 Lux tax is $208 mil. So top limit is $248 mil and that leaves you $14 mil to the line. I am also convinced that JD is going to either opt out or get extended. I doubt he beats the AAV, though. JD’s contract the last 2 seasons was more than $22 mil, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he signed a 4 year $80 mil-ish contract this offseason that might actually drop his AAV strangely enough

Sale is $29 mil

The timing of the opt out is important too. He will be a 30 yr old FA if he does well enough to execute it. It will also be the prior to the second year of new CBA.

The Sox hope this is a 3 year extension, IMO. Bogey has an opt out after 3 seasons. If he plays well enough, he will take it. He’ll have just turned 30 before he hits FA again and should get a nice payday if he opts out.

No, the way this deal is set up, it's really a 6 yr $120 mil extension and he will have a $20 mil cap hit next year. I highly doubt you can keep anyone else and the fact that Porcello came to DD and asked to be extended tells you where their finances are. I said before that I expected the sox to sign one. I thought it would be tight but doable to extend 2. It is impossible to extend 3 or 4

Wow. This is unexpected and a little light for Bogey.

Dear Aaron Boone, When your team is down 1 run, manage as if you’re tied or winning, especially against bad teams. Our offense may be in a bit of a funk, but we’re gonna score some runs. Do not punt games that are close. Also, submit your resignation as you are clearly unqualified for your position. Sincerely, JM

Yup. Down 1. Britton ready. Top 8. You go Britton all day. Idiot Boone

He hasn’t proven to lose any velocity. Today’s issue was his entire inability to throw anything on the corner. If he loses his command, he’s gonna get smashed

Happ with no command to start. Let’s hope the bats are ready

That amazing starting pitching is falling flat first time though. It does happen, but a little letdown is also expected

Girardi has quite possibly the biggest mistake a manager has ever made in the post season. The fact that we won the series is irrelevant. The missed challenge prior to the GS hit by Lindor in the 2017 ALDS is the worst non call a manager has ever made. I know people here hate on Little, but at least Pedro has to give up the runs. Girardi has to simply challenge and the inning ends. So no, I don’t miss him

I’d understand a second inning if he went to Cessa, as he’s a starter. I don’t get trying to get a second inning from a one inning reliever. Also, we’re coming off a day off and are likely heading to a rain out tomorrow.

Another managing snafu from Boone. You’re down 3-1 in the top of the 9th against a team that you should score against. Instead of bringing in a fresh reliever, you try to pull a second inning out of Holder. Granted, his defense did him no favors, but the 2 run addition by the Orioles was predictably followed by a 2 run inning by the Yanks. No guarantee that the Yanks score 2 if the game was 3-1 entering the 9th, but you’ve got a fresh pen and you’re down late and close against a team likely to lose 120 games. You need to limit the O’s and then give the offense a shot down 2 in the 9th. This doesn’t excuse our 2 UER and our offense going in the tank, but it doesn’t help when your manager pushes the wrong buttons late. This game should be going to the 10th