jacksonianmarch

Who are you gonna trade? The problem is, you need to have a parade of good pre-arb players to sustain a team that has 4 active players (and 1 perennially injured player) taking up half your budget. When the well behind you dries up and your current cheap talent gets pricey, you run out of options and fade.

EEI contemplated this and I think I may have posted about it before, but I think this is the offseason to deal off Betts. I honestly think the sox are gonna try to compete this season. If things go poorly, they may see if the same team can catch lightning in the bottle if the manager doesn't stupidly rest his staff and if the team actually has a closer. But there is a contingent who are fully aware that the sox are heading into cap hell and will have trouble affording Betts, especially if Betts signs a shorter term contract to maximize AAV.

2 more seasons after this one

1. Get rid of the juiced ball 2. Force teams to play 2 infielders on each side of second base. You wanna pull an OFer into the shift, go for it. 3. Replays done automatically within 10 seconds with a direct link from central to the HP ump. If not obvious, don't overturn it. 4. I like the 3 batter rule for pitchers. I'd include a caveat that it's a 3 batter rule or end of inning. Keeps from having 3 pitching changes in an inning and keeps things moving 5. Force all teams to accommodate to the 2020 human body. Teams with old stadiums with no appropriate seating are forced to renovate (I am looking at you Fenway) 6. Robot strike zone is great. HP ump can overturn at his/her discretion. Saves us from the Angel Hernandez effect

How does he have a good chance? He cannot stay healthy and he doesn't miss bats enough. My guess is he ends up being a Brasier type with a big FB and lots of contact

Any punting without actually dealing off value is shedding dead weight. If you truly want to punt, you’d deal JDM, Mookie, ERod, etc

If you look to the southwest for a blueprint on how to rebuild with mediocrity, you see a team that continually surpassed the lux tax and won below 91 and above 81 games from 13-16. We had a one game WC playoff we lost in 2015. But what we did during that time was avoid propping things up with trades. We held onto every good prospect we had. We drafted pretty well and we were very active in the INTL markets. What sparked us going forward was the 2016 firesale. This meant we could turn 2017 over to the rookies. Sanchez, Judge, Bird (to some degree), Andujar, Severino, Montgomery, and Gleyber. The Chapman trade gave us a perennial all star middle infielder, a reliever who was useful and we flipped for INTL funds and a former 1st rounder we flipped for Happ. We dealt Beltran for Tate who we flipped for Britton. We dealt Miller for Sheffield and Frazier. Sheffield got us Paxton. We flipped Nova for Tarpley and Polo. Polo was the second piece to Rutherford that got us DRob, T Frazier, and Kahnle. We moved McCann for Guzman and Abreu. Abreu is still a top prospect and Guzman we flipped for Stanton. That rebuild allowed us the extra push to flesh out our squad and stay sustainable

With control beyond 2019. The Padres are not looking for rentals

This is the DD history, though. Deal off the unknown for the known. He did it for the 97 Marlins bringing in Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield, etc and won a title. Management forced a rebuild, which was probably the best thing for the club as the rebuild was integral in their 2003 title. But DD didn’t stick around for the entire process. DD took over a Tigers team that had lost at least 90 a season for 5+ seasons. They very nearly broke the Mets record for losses as well. But that stretch allowed them to draft high and they got good bang for their buck. They made a major trade with the Marlins and got themselves a HOF 1b. They had a HOF starter (Verlander) that came up during the WS run in 06. DD dealt from his surplus, but didn’t go for broke and added all stars to the roster. Their team was good but faded due to injury for 2 seasons before he really went for broke. Along the way, he picked up scherzer in a 3 team deal. He picked up Greene in a 3 team deal. DD was dealing young talent for young talent and it worked. But the long success thinned his farm, then he made the ill fated deal to get Price, spent an enormous amount on Prince Fielder and his team got old suddenly. Now the tigers are staring at an enormous rebuild with all 3 of their CY winning pitchers on other clubs and the extension of Cabrera looking like the worst contract in history. This is your future. DD goes for broke and he did that. He decimated your farm, stuck you with an enormous bill and has left you with an underachieving squad. But flags fly forever

Since the Sox are all but guaranteed to be over the lux tax limit in 2020, the risk involved in the QO isn’t worth the 4th round pick you’d acquire

The problem in baseball is mediocrity. Mediocre teams take a LONG time to rebuild. The Sox retooled after the 2004 season, made the POs in 2005, missed out in 2006, but had a surge in 2007 because their farm was loaded. They stayed relevant until 2011 when the team died in September. They finished in last in 2012 then got career years out of everything they touched to win it in 2013 with the core of the 2007 team largely intact (Pedey, Papi, Lester) and big time help from the farm (Xander) during the POs. Their 2014-2015 teams were duds, but their strong farm system and enviable cap space allowed them to deal for studs or sign them and won the division 3 years in a row and a title last year. They’re not entirely heading for a major downturn in 2019, but they’re clearly not as good as the record setting team last year. The problems with this squad and the main reason for the cliff are two fold. The Sox have a TON of money tied up in this team. Each time the Sox reloaded and won a title, they could spend. Well, you’ve got Pedey, Price, Sale, Eovaldi and Bogaerts locked up at $111 mil annually for the next 3 seasons. That’s halfway to the second limit on 4 players, one of which will never play again, another who is a 34 yr old 5.5 inning pitcher, another is a flailing ace, and the last cannot stay healthy. The kids around this core are either expensive (Betts) or heading there and your farm is as thin as it has ever been. Staying in the race and flailing the team is a great way to deepen the cliff. The paid guys get old, the farm continues to get depleted in a quest to hold on and your checkbook reaches its limit.

No, contending teams are not paying for past performance, especially when that past performance was as an ancillary piece of a title. They look at the now and Poorcello is awful right now

2020 is even further down the ladder than 2019. The window for being an elite team is closing.

You're not getting an A or B prospect for Poorcello.

Porcello has $9 mil left on his contract for this year and is pitching like s***. He isn't going to return anything of value. This is your team, like it or not. Your farm system is mostly gutted. The window is closing. Your only option is to hope Rick can find it and see what this squad plus some minor additions can do

I keep calling him Adams, not sure why. It's Smith

And that rumor was just that. Yanks sign Adams for full slot value

Manfred is a bad GM. Sometimes you just need to avoid rocking the boat. He is far too liberal with changing the game and hasn't responded to the changes being made around him. Trying to keep the game the way it was is the best thing he can do. Instead of working on a pitch clock, juicing the ball and limiting mound visits, how bout he limits shifting and allows guys to hit the way they were brought up to? The shift is the thing that has caused all this nonsense. Players have decided to sell out for homers, so we are seeing higher K rates, longer ABs, longer games and more homers. Juice the ball and now everyone can hit a homer.

Scherzer will only be available if the Nats fall out again, and to be honest, I doubt they shop him. I would think they'd shop Strasburg since he can opt out of his deal in the offseason if they fall out of contention The Mets aren't dealing deGrom with their maniac GM in place. He was deGrom's agent previously and then gave him the deal he wanted. I anticipate Brodie is gonna get canned in the offseason and deGrom will be moved Syndergaard is making the rounds right now, but I seriously doubt you deal for him, or anyone does for that matter. His stuff is down and you don't deal guys like him when their stock is down Kluber is recovering from a broken arm. I doubt you see him moved until he is at the top of his game and that wont come this year Bumgarner is moving. His average FB velo is back to his baseline and he is starting to pitch like himself again, but he is a rental and I am reticent to pay the price for 2015 Bumgarner getting 2019 Bumgarner production Bauer may move, but its gonna take a lot of prospects to move him. No way Carlos is moved with leukemia and not being on the mound Stroman should move, although the Jays could wait into the offseason if they wanted to. I doubt Boyd moves. He has a lot more control to him and he is one small step away from becoming an ace. Unless someone overpays, he stays in the Motor City\ John Means isn't moving. No rumors to that effect exist and considering the possibility is just dumb Caleb Smith is unlikely to move. He is an older pre arb player, but he's a guy they should build around. Wheeler will be dealt. His stuff is supreme, his execution not so much. He will be an interesting guy to gauge the market on since his production doesn't signal a big return, but his stuff and how he finished last year does Leake was almost moved, but he stinks. Big HR rates in Safeco, no thank you. Plus, he has a big contract Cashner likely has never been hotter. He is definitely moved, but the O's will hold out for a big return Aaron Sanchez has been dreadful and hurt again. He is a candidate for being dealt next deadline if they Jays can prop him up as something more than a guy to dream on Bundy is a weird case too. He doesn't have the big fastball anymore and gives up a ton of bombs. He's a NL guy, IMO, someone who can be a 5th starter

Pitchers especially are creatures of habit. They throw, run, long toss, bullpen, run, then pitch again. You screw up their habits or put them on the hill in games that count before they are ready and they will be out of synch. The entire rotation is out of synch and they haven't been able to come up for breath. The ASG may help or the extra tumult thrown in there could be another jolt to the system

The Royals would only get salary relief from Duffy, but I really hope you guys get him. Go for it. His K rates are down, his HR rates up and his xFIP is over 5.3. His FB velo is at the lowest of his career, down 0.9mph off last year and down 2.6mph off his most recent best season in 2016.

I was mostly throwing out the reason for packaging, not the location. I do think Stroman to Houston is a distinct possibility. I doubt Giles would be heading there

It is more likely he gets type cast just due to the way players are valued these days. If you don't have a big fastball or insane movement, you're a swing guy. He will need to do a lot to break that mold.

I doubt that gets it done either. The extra year of control and the want of the contender is at play here. The Yanks took advantage of the need to break the billy goat curse to get an absurd return for Chapman as a rental. Miller’s return was even better at the time but Miller had another two years of control attached to him. Toronto has almost no need to package the two together unless the return is only attainable with both packaged (ie a mega prospect like Whitley or Tucker). This is why I doubt the Yanks make a move for both because their best prospect is not at that level yet (although 25 isn’t bad for Garcia) and I wonder how much we would part with to a division rival, especially with the arms on the FA market available for cash alone

There’s zero chance the Jays take that deal