jacksonianmarch

We changed organizational philosophy in 2013 after the Sox won their third in 9 years. Since then, we’ve focused on farm building and depth. Since 2015, the Sox switched back to the Yankees method of team building which is carpe diem, f the future. It’s interesting how the teams changed philosophy and adopted the other’s MO.

We were in the ALCS in 2017, just two years back

You could probably jettison some contracts if you include Devers. AdGon returned so much because the Dodgers were starved to win and AdGon was under contract for awhile. Becket wasn’t a stiff either and the Sox sold Crawford as a guy who needed a change of scenery.

Get off your high horse.

We’ll see come the postseason. We’ve got a deep and deadly pen. We just need 3-5 innings from out starters and we are good

Paxton has shown no drop in stuff which is reassuring. I’d also expect Paxton to be better in year 2 and in his walk year. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Paxton posts career best numbers next year in his walk year

ERod isn’t a close call, IMO. If you think the rebuild takes two years and you have a guy for two years, you should deal him and if you really want him, you could sign him as a FA

I can stick to criteria. For next year’s regular season production alone. Sale>Tanaka Paxton>Price ERod>German Severino>Eovaldi

Not this year. Enjoy a diminished pitcher for 5 more years! If Tanaka falls off a cliff, we can wipe the slate clean in a season. Also, postseason Tanaka- 3-2 1.50ERA 30IP 6GS 0.80WHIP Sale- 1-2 5.76ERA 33IP 4GS 1.32WHIP Tanaka isn’t Sale. Not even close. Doesn’t dominate like him. Doesn’t K nearly as many guys. He’s control over power. But Sale blows his load in the regular season and by the postseason, he’s a wreck. This year, Sale’s stuff has waned and he’s been inconsistent in the regular season and is a big reason why the Sox won’t see the postseason. Tanaka always has a month every year where he loses the splitter and gets absolutely bombed. He finds it and starts pitching well again. Also, we will be in the postseason and will need Tanaka to continue pitching well when the lights are the brightest.

Price over Paxton is an absolute homerism for next season, cmon. For the price, it’s ridiculously in favor of the Yanks. For production this year, they’re within 0.2 in WAR with Paxton having a bad season for him. Add an extra year on a rapidly declining Price and you’ll still take the guy going in the wrong direction? Take off the rosy glasses man Tanaka has always had a month of s*** every year. He just had his. He’s also been a better postseason pitcher. Sale is the better regular season pitcher. That’s not debatable nor is it close. When the lights come on and the games really matter, Sale is nowhere in sight. Tanaka is the better postseason pitcher. Take whoever you want, but for a Yankee team poised to make the playoffs the next few seasons, I’ll take the guy who dominates when the lights are brightest. Also, you think Sale’s contract will look like a steal? How much Kool Aid are you drinking? Diminished Sale will never live up to the contract. ERod has the track record. You’re correct there. German has the control. 5 yrs of control vs 2 when the current year production is essentially the same, I’ll take the longer control. I only said you should deal ERod because he only has two years of control left and if you rebuild, those two years won’t be good. If the Sox go for it next year, you need ERod

Well, that’s part of it. Tanaka just threw 8 shutout innings and usually finishes the year strong. His ERA will be around 4 by the end of the season. Sale is the better regular season pitcher, but Tanaka is the better post season pitcher and it ain’t close. I’ve seen Tanaka do this every year now where he is an abject disaster for a month. He usually comes out of it on fire. Yesterday was the start, I hope. Tanaka also hasn’t seen a demonstrable downturn in stuff like Sale has. Sale is has five more years on his contract at $29 mil per. Tanaka has one more year on his contract at $22.5 mil per. Who’d you rather have? Paxton has been the enigma. His stuff is there. His FB is exactly what it has been the last two seasons. He’s allowed 1 more walk per 9 and 0.5 more HRs per 9. Otherwise, he’s been a bit unlucky. His stuff and prior performance point towards better results to come. He’s also controllable for one more season under arbitration. Price is currently hurt and has been on a roll of s*** lately. His velocity is at a career low and he’s almost 34 (next month). He’s heading in the wrong direction and he’s got another 3 yrs and $31 mil per season on the docket. Who’s you rather have? German I am still not sure what he is. He’s been dominant and beatable at the same time. Great K rate and walk rate, insane HR rate. He became more of a pitcher this year throwing less than 50% fastballs with nearly 20% changes and 35% breaking balls. Stuff is really, really good. Control is good. His strike zone command can be spotty. He’s only 27 and we control him for another 5 years. ERod walls more guys. He K’s around the same amount. His HR rate is high, but below German’s. He’s actually a few months younger than German. His FIP and xFIP are almost identical to German’s (better FIP, worse xFIP). But he’s under control for only two more seasons. Who’d you rather have? Luis Severino has been an ace for two seasons finishing within the top 10 in CY young in consecutive years. He had an injury to his lat muscle that the Yanks initially misdiagnosed which caused the setback. No surgery needed and he’s ramping up now. It was Sevy’s first significant injury and it didn’t require the knife. Sevy is under control for 3 more years at a total of $30 mil. Eovaldi has seen more knives than a Benny Hana. He’s also 4 years older. He had elbow surgery this year and was tossed into the pen. He’s had a history of being an injury prone, mediocre pitcher in his history and outside of one magical month, has done nothing to dispel that. He’s under control for the exact same amount of time as Severino, but for a total of $21 mil more. So, considering cost and control, how could anyone advocate for your squad?

Our rotation isn't complete for 2020. But having Severino, German, Paxton and Tanaka 1-4 isn't bad. My guess is there's an ace in front of those 4

I am not sure your guys are toast. Far from it. I am just saying that they aren't guys who should lead a rotation at this point. Sale with his diminished velocity and hit or miss nature this year makes him a poor bet to lead a rotation. He will be best served transitioning to a crafty lefty and focus on command and movement over power. That doesn't imply an ace, but he will be a useful pitcher. Just not $29 mil AAV useful. Price has been a bit unlucky, but his velocity is at the lowest it has ever been and he has been fading as the season wore on. Can he be an effective back end pitcher? Absolutely. Does he lead a rotation going forward and is he worth his AAV? No. Eovaldi, nobody knows what he is at this point. He was a back end starter his whole career. He sucked when he got to Boston and even lost his rotation spot. Then turned an epic October into a massive overpay and hasn't been able to stay healthy. Your guess is as good as mine on Eovaldi. But he sure as s*** hasn't earned his $17 mil this year. In terms of our starters, who knows. German has been very good but very homer prone. Tanaka has proven very effective on extra rest, but up to today had s*** the bed. Paxton has been hit or miss as well, very Sale like without the velocity concerns. Severino might be back come the end of the month. CC and Happ are a crapshoot. But we follow that rotation with the best pen in the majors. Add in Betances and it is an epic pen. If deployed properly, we could use the rotation to the point of trouble then finish the game with the pen. Having those arms back there changes the game.

IL, cmon now. I have spent the better part of the last 7 years watching the Yanks tear down and rebuild while I watched the sox build 2 title winners. I have been wrong about a lot of things, but the one major thing I have been right about is the cliff. It was as plain as day for me with the numbers lining up and with the farm being decimated. Many on here became either cliff deniers or supporters, but the amount of ridicule I received for starting the theory was pretty significant. Clearly I am happy with the improbable nature of the Yankees success this year. You don't survive this amount of injuries, let alone thrive. But the other thing I have seriously enjoyed was seeing my idea come to fruition, and a year sooner than expected. So yes, I am enjoying the failures of the red sox. I am a Yankee fan, of course I would. But I am enjoying the fact that the reasons for their failures were spelled out in my long post from over 2 years ago which I resurrected recently. Read some of the comments after it to see why I am enjoying this to such a degree. Now, I will throw another one out there. If Henry sticks to his friend DD and props this up for another year, it will fail and the rebuild will take a few years longer. I have proposed the idea of tearing it down. Selling off the useful parts for farm products and making something of the mess that's been 2019 for the sox. Take that idea and tell me if I am wrong or right? I can handle it

Patient name: 2019 Red Sox Time of death: 5p Date of death: August 11, 2019 Cause of death: Bullpen arrest Contributing factor 1: Global pitching staff failure Contributing factor 2: Farm system failure Medical Examiner notified. Case accepted by D. Dombrowski. Autopsy to be performed Case# 2019-242 Splitting a 6 game homestand vs the Royals and Angels when you're staring at a big deficit for the WC is a kill shot. Lack of resources in the offseason to adequately address the pen was phase 1 of the cliff. The question becomes now, where do the sox go from here? Is DD staying? If so, he is gonna get a shot at propping this thing up. If he is gone, then who do they bring in to revive this dead farm system? If they rebuild, you have to replace DD and you gotta deal Mookie. No question. I also throw ERod on that list. I gauge the market for JBJ. If no interest, he gets DFA'd. I absolutely deal JDM. He isn't going to opt out, IMO, as strict DH's don't command as much as they used to and waiting for him to fade offensively will be a losing situation. Deal him while he is still a machine in the box. I include whatever cash amount needed to bring back an impact prospect. I'd also look at the market for Vazquez. He is coming off a career season and has 3 years of control left. He has never hit like this and his stock will never be higher. His return should be big as offensive catchers command a premium. Young, offensive catchers with good defensive chops and 3 years of cheap control would cost a fortune and the market would be vast. Xander wants to be in Boston. I would build around him, Devers, and Beni in the lineup with the hopes that Chavis develops into an impact bat and not the guy he has been the last 3 months. You have to ride Sale, Price and Eovaldi in the rotation because they're being paid far more than they are worth right now. You hope you catch fire with either next season and can deal them when their market heats up. In the pen, you have no choice but to hold onto Barnes as he has torched his value. Workman gets dealt to the highest bidder. He is a FA soon and he has never thrown like this, so I sell high. The key to sustainable winning is to find young, cheap talent in this league. Building around expensive guys with young guys is a good way to eventually get back to the peak. I'd take a look at the analytics Cashman has used to find hitters in the AAAA range who are buried or undervalued. Go out and deal for them and hope you find a Voit or Tauchman. Outside of that, be willing to go for value over proximity in your trades. If you have the opportunity to get a nice AAA prospect and a bunch of s*** for Mookie or a bunch of very talented guys in A ball or lower, go with the latter. As much as you need to replace Mookie, you also need to replace an entire farm system. ERod and Vaz likely bring back the most due to their cheaper cost and their multiple years of control. My stated goal as GM would be 3 seasons. In 3 years, whatever money we paid for JDM is off the books. In 3 years, Eovaldi, Pedroia, and Price are off the books. Only Sale and Xander would be on the roster at big money, outside of the arb costs of guys like Beni and Devers. But in 3 years, if you rebuilt right, the prospects you got in those trades should be ready and the guys you drafted and developed with better picks should be ready too.

Leading him off was an embarrassment

There are 7.5 weeks left in the season. Scheduled off days at this point are only for teams out of it or with a big lead. If the Sox are serious about getting into the POs, then it’s all hands on deck until the season ends. With TB winning, the Sox are now 8 out in the L column. It’s s*** or get off the pot time

Assuming we win the ALE, not a huge stretch at this point, we’re gonna need to keep in mind something for the POs. Tanaka is dirty on 5 days rest. Yanks pushed him back today and he’s allowed 1 hit through 5 and that one hit should have been an error. He’s always been nasty on 5 days rest. That actually marches out for the ALDS for game 1 and game 5.

You legitimately don’t understand the 20-80 power ratings. Judge has 70 power. Dalbec does not

Tarpley to IL. Mantiply and Lail to the bigs. Valera sent down tells me Gleyber is ready

Harvey was shipped out, so I wonder why we don’t promote a kid

I’m trying to figure out why Tarpley keeps getting chances. I wonder if he has compromising pics of Boone

The team I call up is the Mets. They’re all in for next year with Thor and Stroman being FAs. They’ll be willing to sell out especially with their GM

You miss my point. I’m asking if it’s Henry or DD doing the listening

He did pitch a gem. Brought you guys one game closer. Only 16 to go!