Back to the original point of this post, realistic view of 2020. Lots has changed since the post was started.
1. The Sox have been given a “goal” (read as mandate) to get under the cap. This means that some names currently on the roster are gonna get dealt, and when dumping salary, the return in terms of now production isn’t going to be there. The benefit is in signing players or dealing for more expensive players, something they cannot do until well under the cap
2. They’ve already bid adieu to Porcello and Holt. They’ve replaced them with Perez and Peraza. We all can agree that this is a downgrade. They have done nothing to improve the pen as they have no resources (farm or money) to get an improvement.
3. They’re entering 2020 with far more injury questions than they had going into 2019. Eovaldi ended up converting to relief after elbow surgery and sucked. He’ll go back to the rotation. Price has wrist surgery and saw a velocity drop. He’s also 34. Sale’s velocity was down and he couldn’t make it to August.
4. The division is gonna be harder. The Yanks kept Gardner and Chapman. They went out and signed Cole. They’re the lead dogs by a mile. The Rays are young and have dealt off Pham and lost Garcia. But Renfroe is no joke and their top 3 of Snell, Glasgow and Chirinos is great as is their pen. If they’re healthy, they’re staying at 2. The Blue Jays have multiple second year talents and they just added Roark and Yamaguchi. They’re still gonna be 4 in the division, but they won’t lose 95 again. And the O’s still suck, so there’s that.
5. The AL is gonna be tougher. Rendon, Grandal and Roark are 3 NL names in the top 20 of FAs and they’re heading to the AL. The only top 20er to defect the AL is Didi and he’s easily replaced. Add in that the Angels are probably gonna be better, the Rangers are going for it, the White Sox are going for it and you’ve got a tougher AL. The only AL team that made a downgrade intentionally was the Guardians. Remains to be seen if they blow it up, which is possible.
These 5 reasons makes me wonder why some Sox fans are so adamant about going for it in 2020. The strong likelihood is the Sox are gonna be candidates for the WC2 maybe, but are likely headed for another down year. If you win 85 and miss the POs, it’s just as s***** as winning 70 and missing the POs but without the prime draft position. Hence, a lot of proposals I’ve seen here have been for major league talent, including the one I made (mostly because that’s the direction I foresee Bloom taking). But what if Bloom made a Betts for prospects deal? What if Bloom used the financial savings to keep Price and deal him with money for prospects in 2020. What if he then waited for Eovaldi to have a good stretch and found a taker for him? What do you care if the Sox blow it up and then build a farm if running the same retreads out there misses the POs again?