jacksonianmarch

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/ Looking at this, if you deal off JBJ and give no money and get no other money/contracts back, the sox will still need to clear $12+ mil. If you aren't a believer in the $2 mil MiLB contracts, then you're looking at $10 mil. Then you will need to replace the CFer.

Seconded. Hope you all had a fun and safe night

I’m entirely fine with the Sox keeping Betts. Clearly option 1a is a good one, but let’s be honest, that ain’t happening. He isn't signing in NY, we don’t need him. The Sox are deconstructing from an 84 win squad. We added to a 103 win team. Betts or no Betts, we’re better. My concern is what the Sox do for team building as it pertains to 2023-2025 range which a Betts deal now will absolutely impact.

Lots of potential in that rotation. Not a lot of sure things outside of Keuchel

Judge is a massive man. Most massive baseball position players (there aren't many) take awhile to develop. I am happy to know he's on the squad for the next 3 years at least.

Right, but that seems pretty steep to do so. Maybe this is why we don't see those heavily front loaded deals that I have proposed

I read cot's contracts breakdown of Chapman and there is a provision MOVING FORWARD about guys opting out. Here is the excerpt on Chapman So there is a correction that is added GOING FORWARD. I don't get this, though, for a guy who opts out and signs elsewhere. Does a massive hit occur in one season? Let's say the Yanks signed Cole for 10 years and $300 mil, but had the first 4 years at $160 mil then an opt out. If Cole opted out and went back to the Astros, what would that mean for the lux tax. On the docket would have been $30 mil AAV for the first four years. Would the Yanks be hit with a $40 mil adjustment in year 5 since he was actually paid $40 mil AAV the first 4 seasons yet counted at $30 mil AAV, so the difference would be added back? I wasn't aware of this

Someone is gonna go nutty. Even in a year where he was clearly below his potential, he was a 6.6 WAR, .900+OPS player. He's averaged 7+ WAR for the last 4 years. He is likely to be near 7 WAR in 2020. He will likely be a 7 WAR player for a few years after that. Here is the problem I have with Mookie. He's a short ball player. His defensive game is tied to his quick twitch speed, something that will wane as he aged. As a hitter, he is valuable, but he isn't a $300+ mil player on his bat alone. It's his baserunning and defense that add that extra value, both of which will fade during his next contract. Does it fade early? Does he retain it later? Nobody knows, but there is a solid chance that he becomes exceptionally overpaid on a yearly basis before he hits the halfway point of the contract. Now, for a team still likely to be a WS contender, you do the deal. Kinda like what the Yanks are doing with Cole. We should be WS contenders the first half of the contract and digging out from the mess the second half. The problem for the sox is that the situation is flipped. They're digging out from the mess early in the contract and by the time they're perennial contenders again, he might have already peaked. It never made sense to me for the sox to give him the deal he will want or to outpace the market.

The AAV of the agreed upon contract stays the same but the opt out gets added to the year end. They don’t retroactively alter the AAV’s, which is a loophole I’m surprised they haven’t closed yet. It allows for ridiculously front loaded contracts with opt outs after the high value seasons while suppressing the AAV with a longer term, far lower AAV afterwards. I’m surprised the owners haven’t closed this loophole to be honest. This takes away some impetus to extend players in pre arb or early arb process as it brings up their cost to a lux tax team, even if the first few years of the new extension are akin with what they would have made in arb

See this is what I am hoping for as a Yankee fan. Sox stay above the lux tax and watch him walk at the end of the year. Therefore the Sox don’t get the farm system shot in the arm of a trade and since they’re over the LT, get a pick in the 4th instead of after the first as compensation. Double whammy

Happ re-made himself and also found more velocity (HGH, roids, who knows).

They gave $2.8 mil to the 26th man in Peraza. His upside is rather s*****. Shaw’s upside is middle of the order wrecking ball

At $4mil, you take that risk

He had a 7.1 WAR mark the previous two years with 63 homers, so my bet is on a rebound. He’s not old and most of his 2019 production, or lack thereof, was due to an abhorrent start that he couldn’t shake. He’s a bargain at $4 mil

Devers banged down the door. Casas would need to do the same to alter his timeline. If he goes 1-2 levels per year, you’re looking at a 2022 debut

Spotrac has the Sox over the lux tax by $23+ mil. That’s an entire Mookie minus about $4 mil based on arb estimates

If the “goal” is a mandate then the easiest fix Is to move Betts for the best return. That return needs to include a cheap major league OFer, doesn’t have to be good if the rest of the package is sufficient

If you’re gonna reset, you reset then pick up the pieces with cheaper options so you don’t have a completely barren team. Let’s say the Sox deal Price, what would they replace him with? Let’s say they move Eovaldi? Same question. You’re risking running a team out there on day 1 before season tix are rolled out that is clearly substandard and very likely to get far, far worse. It’s a PR disaster

Henry cannot have a PR nightmare here. He doesn’t like being at the bottom of the totem pole in boston without some hope. If he puts out a clearly substandard team due to financial concerns and then didn’t reset because nobody would bite, then what has he accomplished? If you reset, you reset. Make that goal #1 and get it done. In doing so, you need the replacements for the guys you move away. As the days get slightly longer but far colder, the low cost options dry up and you’re eventually left with minor leaguers

Maybe he is. But standing pat is dumb. If he is realizing that he cannot shed payroll, then what’s the harm in going right up to the final line? The penalty for next year would be 50% no matter if the Sox are over by $1 or $39.9 mil

Maybe they’re stymied from making a big acquisition, but my bet is they could get Cishek for less than $6 mil AAV. Also, if he’s driving the ship back to MA, you can probably get him on a 1 yr deal for $4 mil. This is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cishek isn’t amazing, but he’s a good pitcher with closing experience who will help the beleaguered back of your pen. The idea that you cannot even offer a modest contract is cutting off your nose to spite your face. Cheap upgrades should always be welcome. I at least understood passing on Shaw since you’d got some 1b talent in the system with Chavis and Dalbec. You don’t have back end pen talent right now

If this is the team that’s put out there, then they’re risking not resetting and sucking at the same time. Pen additions are absolutely a requirement. You either rebuild and blow it up, reset and save some cash on re-signing Mookie, or you go for it and get a bullpen and try to win. Standing pat is just stupid

Steve Cishek would like to come home and sign with Boston (he’s from Falmouth). The Sox haven’t offered him a contract yet as their salary obligations haven’t been cleared. Cishek has posted a sub 3 ERA 4 years running. He’d be a good addition and is begging to come on board.

That is what it sounds like

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-shaw-red-sox-payroll-Guardians.html Good update on the Sox financial status. Sox were in on Shaw, but couldn’t offer him anything until they moved salary. Bloom isn’t gonna do anything beyond MiLB deals until he moves someone