jacksonianmarch

I think you're selling Keuchel short. He did have a 3 month layoff before signing with the Braves, and time has proven those players to be pretty muted in their production when this occurs. His K rate was a touch above normal, his BB rate a touch below normal. Where he struggled was with the superball and his HR rate skyrocketed. His first few starts were shorter, but the last few months he was a pretty solid 6 inning pitcher. Give him a full offseason and a full ST, and my thought is he can be the guy he was at the end with Houston, which is a 200 inning 3WAR pitcher.

I still think Hunter Greene or Nick Lodolo would headline the package with likely two more prospects (one likely a reliever as that’s Bloom’s MO of building) and one far away. Then the Sox would probably get a big league outfielder back to fill the void.

That’s the thing we all must get past. Mookie isn’t signing with ANYONE! He’s a one year rental then who ever offers the most money a year from now will get him for the rest of his career. He isn’t a guy you deal for and then negotiate an extension. He’s made a lot of money and he’s made it known he is going to the open market. Once everyone (media included) gets over the idea that the team acquiring him is getting anything more than a one year rental, then you can start seeing realistic deals out in place. The Reds have shelled out money. They signed Moustakas. They dealt for and extended Gray. They dealt for Bauer, who is gonna leave after 2020. They’ve got an older version of Votto. They’ve got intriguing offensive players, but their OF needs work. Senzel is probably gonna be good but he’s young. Aquino is a WMP kind of player who you cannot count on. Schebler, meh. Their OF needs work and if they’re serious about contending in a down NL central, getting Mookie gives them that shot. The big thing Bloom needs to get over is the idea that he’s a long term asset to someone. If you think you’re dealing 9 years of Betts, then you’re gonna ask for the moon. One year of Betts? You can get something more realistic

I still think the Reds are your dark horse for Mookie. That team is built for 2020, so it makes sense for them to maximize their position on a one year player

The sox would have to have a fallback option, though, should Price be dealt away. You cannot deal Price and expect Johnson to slide in and have the fans line up to watch that horror show

I absolutely do not take Upton back in a deal. He is owed a lot of money and is coming off a myriad of injuries in 2019. His brother was also pretty much done by this age and Upton is still signed for 3 more. Also, Justin is a thicker guy now with leg and foot issues. I'd rather just include money if I were the sox GM.

The sox can write their own narrative on Price now. There are no other FAs that can be had that match up. Hence, the sox now have the market to themselves and without major outside options, they can drive their best bargain

The owners are going to need to concede on SOMETHING. As it stands right now, the owners own the rights of a player for 6 years and with the new analytics, the value is in those 6 seasons. Yes, the money was flowing this offseason, but the guys available this year were far better than most seasons. But with a cap on the teams that can spend and the control of rights for 6 seasons, you are generating entire offseasons where big market teams are sitting out and a prime FA is having to choose between low ball offers from mid market teams. Last year was a prime example. Machado to SD and Harper to Philly was a prime example of the bean counters trying to plan for the future in LA, BOS, and NYY when pretty much every team could have used them. The players will demand one of two things. 1. 4 years of player control so players hit the market sooner. 2. Significantly raising the lux tax threshold and removing the draft pick penalty

I keep seeing reports of Hader being linked to the Yanks, but I just don't see it. I do see a link for Happ to the Brewers, especially since Milwaukee had a weird purge of talent from their rotation. Their two highest IP starters are gone. Zach Davies went to SD and Chase Anderson is in Toronto. They have added Brett Anderson, who is clearly not a guy you can count on due to injury, Eric Lauer (who was obtained for Davies) , and Josh Lindlom, who was pitching in Korea. Lindblom could be a steal as he seems to have found himself in Korea and could be a cheaper American option a la Miles Mikolas of the Cards and Merril Kelly of the DBacks. Both those guys came back and were either very good (Mikolas) or serviceable (Kelly) after coming back from "finding themselves" overseas. Eric Lauer is a guy who struggled with the longball in San Diego of all places, but as a 24 yr old with good enough command and movement, he likely jumps in as the co-ace of the staff. Anderson is probably their most useful veteran, although he never stays healthy. Adding into their mix is Brandon Woodruff, who is the highest ceiling guy, but has a total of 30 starts under his belt and has never crossed 125 innings in a big league season before. Adrian Houser rounds out the rotation as another stuff guy with a career high IP total of 111 last season at 26 yrs old. The only guy on their roster who has stayed healthy and took the mound regularly the last two years is Lauer, who seems to be a back end guy at best. No idea what Lindblom gets out. Woodruff and Houser have the best stuff, but no pedigree and Anderson's best attribute is he brings veteran leadership while on the IL collecting paychecks. The Brewers need a pitcher who can reliably give innings. So Happ makes sense. Also, with the fact that their starters aren't the most durable and aren't great at going long into games, Hader is absolutely necessary to fill that relief ace role and lock down games their offense gives them leads in. The other side of this, also, is that the Brewers lost a LOT of offense. Grandal, Thames, Shaw, and Moustakas are gone. They likely pilfered Urias from the Padres, so he should add something if he reaches his potential. They did add in Garcia, who slots in with Cain and Yelich as a top 5 OF in the game. Their IF adds Braun back, likely as a 1b option and sometimes moving to LF. They added Smoak and Sogard to an infield that includes the aforementioned Urias, Hiura and Arcia. They did deal for Narvaez to replace Grandal, which brings offense from a defensive position, although Narvaez is a butcher behind the dish. The link I keep seeing brought up by pundits is an Andujar plus prospects (likely Garcia) for Hader. I don't see how this helps the Brewers. They have a great OF. They have an infield loaded with talent without a perceivable hole and with 2 high upside rookies who will need full time PT in Urias and Hiura. They do not have a "full time" 3b on the roster, which I understand, but between Urias, Sogard, Arcia and Urias, they have 4 players vying for 3 spots. Hence, I think a Happ deal to the Brewers could very much be in play. But with the way the current Brewers roster is constructed, there is no way the Brewers are actively looking to move Hader unless they plan to tank

The dark horse now is Anaheim. They got Bundy and Teheran, who are more back end guys. They’ve got Ohtani, who’s flashed ace production without the durability. They need a 2 or a 3. Price is stretching it as a 2 or a 3, albeit has higher upside than Teheran and is just flat out better than Bundy

Toronto probably figured they’d get more production out of Ryu than Price. They’re getting an extra year of Ryu and are still saving $13 mil

It’s not that simple. You wait for the full details to emerge. If Ellsbury followed his contract, then I agree with you

Teheran goes to Anaheim, Keuchel to CWS. 2 more NLers from last year that move to the AL. The shift of power is real. If Donaldson comes to Texas or the Twins then you've got another. The AL is going for it this year

This will be litigated. The truth will come out. If Ellsbury got consent or didn’t violate his contract, then I hope he gets paid

Now here is a name that just signed that made too much sense for the Sox. The Tigers just signed Jonathan Schoop for $6.1 mil. Schoop was a shade below average defensively, yet OPS’s near .780 and hit 23 bombs as a righty power bat. He was the cost of two Jose Peraza’s. As it’s trending now, the Sox are likely to start the year with Peraza as the starting 2b. My bet is they push Dalbec to AAA and at least advance his clock by a year before co side ring bringing him up and moving him to 1b or 2b with Chavis moving the other way. But having a $3 mil utility player who cannot hit doesn’t create an impediment. Having a guy who can knock 25 balls out of the park at 2b and handle the position reasonably well sounds like a better alternative

With the Ellsbury discussion in full swing, one had to wonder what the impact would be on the Yanks should they win the grievance. If the Yanks are successfully able to void Ellsbury's contract, they will shed his $21.14 mil salary and bring their lux tax total down to $237 mil. This is BEFORE the Yanks offload Happ, which I full expect them to do. I have written in the past that a healthy (remains to be seen if he is) Happ would probably be able to be sold off for about $10 mil, especially with a vesting option attached that could be useful for a club looking for a veteran starter to stabilize a rotation. So if the Yanks include $7 mil with Happ and get out from under Ellsbury's albatross, the Yanks would have a lux tax payroll around $228 mil. Thus leaving us a $20 mil buffer between them and the top tax threshold. This could then be used for a massive deadline upgrade OR make the Yanks players for another pen arm, which they seem to be actively looking at

Exactly. I am surprised Perez got a guaranteed deal, to be honest with you. His injury history and recent performance looked like a MiLB offer with a $2-$3 mil kicker if he made the final roster

Ellsbury is claiming the consent was implied. Yanks are saying they never gave consent. Notifying someone you are going to do something is not "getting consent". Getting consent is having the team explicitly tell you "Yes" for the action being performed. Trust me, I have to consent people ALL THE TIME. It is not enough to tell someone what you are doing. You must go over the reason, the risks, the benefits, and the location then have the party sign or verbally acknowledge consent. In terms of legal consent (we do this now because of the legal interpretation of consent) Ellsbury did not get it from the Yankees. Seeking outside medical treatment without consent is likely prohibited in the contract and my bet is the Yanks are claiming a breach of contract

I am still perplexed as to the choices of guys to spend on. Peraza looks like a guy they could have gotten for half his salary. They spent $2 mil more on Perez than they could have had for Gio, who was better

If you don't add to an 84 win team, you aren't going to win anything. If you subtract from an 84 win team, then you're likely not going to win anything. The fans aren't fools. With the Celtics, Bruins and Pats all in championship form, sox fans aren't going to spend their savings on a team that is likely in a down phase

I do wonder if the Yanks may win this one. They haven't done this with other players as far as I can remember, and clearly the non sanctioned treatment didn't help as Ellsbury missed two seasons with various ailments. If the Yanks do win this one, that is $21.2 mil back on the LT line. That jumps us below the final threshold

This is a walk back just in time for ticket sales. The actions thus far haven’t backed the above statement . If the goal was to be as competitive as possible in 2020, you’d have a closer, a second basemen, and a real fifth starter. Let’s put this as a wait and see approach. The article is also entirely wrong when it comes to lux tax. They didn’t include medicals which are part of the calculation bringing the lux tax overage of $18 mil

The Sox didn’t bounce back per se. they had an organizational change and decided to open their wallets. It’s not like those same players turned it around Also, the Sox were the first team in 15 years to go from WS to last place, and the last one before Boston did it intentionally (98 Marlins)

Yeah, but most WS winners don't flounder to the basement the next two seasons

So what you are saying is 6 of your guys had career seasons. Tazawa, Ells, Drew, and Napoli had their second best seasons. Pedey, a possible HOFer, had his 3rd best season. Ortiz, a possible HOFer, had his 5th best season. So 12 of your players and more importantly, 8 of your position players had one of their two best seasons of their career or were two HOF candidates having great years as well. More importantly, the guys you bought on clearance ended up finding a last gasp. Napoli was signed after he had trouble staying healthy the year before. He has an .842OPS season, and never went over .800 OPS again Victorino had had two seasons of .800 or higher OPS in his career prior to coming to Boston, his last one two years prior. He was coming off a .707 OPS season. After 2013, he never crossed .700, let alone .800 again Daniel Nava played the most games of his career and had his career season. The following year he barely broke .700 in OPS and essentially fell off the map from there Salty had his only .800+ OPS season of his career. He went to Miami after 2013 and cratered into nothing. Stephen Drew had the second best OPS+ of his career. The next two seasons, he couldn't break .660 in OPS before becoming a useful part timer for a season before retiring Mike Carp had a great half season with you guys, nearly a .900 OPS. He couldn't hit the Mendoza line in 2014 and was out of baseball after that Johnny Gomes OPS'd .770 in a part time role. He never broke .670 again and was out of baseball in two years Smellsbury posted the second highest OPS of his career and stole 52 bases. He never stole as many bases again and couldn't stay healthy Koji didn't have a career year. He had an all time year, quite possibly the best year of any reliever, EVER. And this from a guy who never saved more than 13 games in his career prior to 2013. He remained good, but not that great, for two more seasons before becoming average and retiring And two of your starters had career seasons as well in Buch and Doubront. So, yes, you had a quarter of your roster have career seasons with up to half having their 2-3 best season. A staggering 9 of your players faded into oblivion after 2013. And that isn't lucky? Seriously? Take it for what it is. Timing was amazing for everyone involved and if even one guy was off, the whole thing would have crashed down. And it did, the following two seasons