jacksonianmarch

Beckett is a major ?? as far as durability. The guy has his first durable season out of many and now he isnt a ?. Schilling started wearing down and wake was injured. Also, expect the sox to protect their 100+mil investment in the arm of Dice K.

He hasnt had cartilage in his knees for 5 years now. It hasnt affected him one bit. As for your durability aspect, I see your point. But I am going off performance here. The sox have younger pitchers, which means they will be handled with kid gloves and their chances of hurting their arms are much greater. As it is, the yankees will have 5 pitchers in their rotation who threw 197IP or more last season (4 in the MLB and one in Japan). We'll see.

it continues. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/17/sports/baseball/17base.html?_r=1&oref=slogin same one from the igawa piece, but it looks as if the talks are continuing.

5yrs 20 million. So overall, they got a left handed guy with a durable track record for 9.2mil a season, of which, only 4 hits the payroll. Not bad. http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/17/sports/baseball/17base.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

which the sox won in a silent bid. Open the bidding and see if the yankees would be outbid by that much.

Not trying to be a homer here, but I thought what the yankees did with Cano was the best way to break a young starter in. They started the season with Tony Womack as their starting 2b. Cano started at AAA and got a red hot start. Once Tony Wo started swooning, they brought Cano up and he continued his hot streak. Starting a kid out of the gate in the majors is an easy way to lose his confidence for the entire season. Let him start in AAA, get about a month's worth of dominance in and then at the start of a long roadtrip, bring him up.

Man, the assumption of Matsuzaka in a new league being better than Pettitte seems a little unfounded for now at least. Wang was the ace and is currently the best pitcher on either staff Mussina was the 2nd best pitcher between the two teams last season. Schilling came in at #3. Pettitte would be at #4 followed by Wake at 5. Johnson and Beckett were equally sucky tied at 6. Matsuzaka, Papelbon and Igawa we have no idea. If you want to talk about potential, well it is a double edged sword going both ways anyway. Johnson has the potential and still has the stuff to be an ace. Matsuzaka could be the best Japanese import since Nintendo. Beckett could reach down and find a breaking pitch that he wont bounce. Pettitte could continue his second half surge and be dominant. Who knows, who cares. It is all about how they fit the team, and durability is the most important thing in my mind. 1. Randy Johnson is durable. Yes he is coming off another surgery, but the guy has surgery every offseason it seems. But you know what gets me about him? In 1990 he was sent to Seattle and since then, there have been only 3 seasons in which RJ didnt surpass 200 innings, and one of those yrs was in 94 because of the strike. The guy is a durable machine who was uncharacteristically bad without having the bad peripherals you would expect. The only trend was a mild increase in BB/9 (up by 0.7) and a decrease in K/9 (down by 0.8). BAA rose by only 7 points, which could be random variation. HR total dropped by 4. Still less than a hit per inning. What is interesting is the fact that he cannot seem to get out of the big inning. 2 years ago, RJ's opponents OPS with RISP was .717. This season, his OPS w/RISP was .998. 2 seasons ago, his opponents OPS with runners on was .766. Last yr it was .927. Either RJ was the victim of bad luck last yr is something that could be debated. It could also be debated that he no longer has either the balls or the stuff to get himself out of jams. That could be why his peripherals (which are very Schilling-esque) translated into a run higher ERA. One other thing that is going to be an obvious carrot in front of RJ is 300 wins. He is 20 wins away, and having won 17 games last yr while giving up so many runs makes 20 this season possible, even if he vultures them. Very difficult to predict, but it is not out of the realm of possibility to say that he could have an era below 4 next yr or approaching 6. The one thing I will bank on is, barring any setback in recovery, 200 innings like clockwork. 2. Mike Mussina The guy is a yearly DL'er. He'll hit the DL again, but he reinvented himself last season. Was 3IP short of 200. K'd 0.7 more per 9IP, walked 0.9/9IP less and had an astronomical 4.91K/BB which was his second highest in his career. His BAA dropped by 43 points, his OPS against dropped by 110 points, his ERA dropped by 0.9 runs per 9, and his WHIP dropped by 0.25. All from slowing down his breaking stuff and embracing age which will increase his longevity and effectiveness. I expect more of the same if he stays healthy, but that is a big if. 3. Chien Ming Wang was pretty amazing last season. 218 innings in 33 starts. His ERA was low at 3.63. But that doesnt make him amazing. What is amazing is that he allowed 12 HRs and the third highest GB/FB ratio in the bigs. He has power stuff that he uses to contact, which makes him an innings eater. And it isnt like the hitters dont know its coming. He throws the sinker about 80% of the time, they just cannot lift it. Quote about him essentially say it is like trying to hit a 95 mph bowling ball. His problems are with running teams, something that the sox are not. He is horrible at holding runners. He is a GB pitcher, so speedy hitters reach base a lot on him. He does have a significant injury history. He has ha TJ and two yrs ago was told he needed rotator cuff surgery. Obviously that was poor advice as R and R fixed it up. If healthy, I'd expect more of the same. He'll never be a K pitcher, but he will eat 200 innings, put up a lot of QS's and win a ton of games on a team that will provide him runs. Is he a prototypical ace, absolutely not. But will he give the yankees a very good chance to win any game, regular season or playoffs, that he pitches, absolutely. 4. Andy Pettitte is durable. He has reached 190 innings 9 out of the last 11 seasons. Also, if you take his last 3 seasons and subtract out the pre AS break numbers from last yr, you have a pitcher with an era sub 3 in the NL. Not bad. His K rate rose to his second highest rate in any full season last yr at 7.4 per 9. But his walk rate jumped as well, by 1.3 from 05 to 06. His BAA jumped a whopping 54 points from 05 to 06, but if you look at the splits, it is even more impressive. His pre AS BAA was .309 last yr. His post AS BAA was .249 which is right about where his numbers were in 2004. Overall, the guy has always been a 2nd half pitcher, but if he could maintain his second half performance from last yr (provided the AL transfer bump), he should give the yankees a lot of wins based on the O and the pen, a lot of innings and a 4-ish ERA. 5. Kei Igawa Nothing known really about this guy except that he is remarkably durable. 200+ innings 5 times in the past 7 yrs and 190+ in 6 of the last 7. Other than that, who the f*** knows. The Yankees needs from their rotation are VASTLY different than what the sox need. The Yankees are going to have a pen that will be a strength and potentially the best lineup in baseball. The downfall of the yankees the previous yrs has not been in the rotation necessarily, but has been because of the durability of the rotation. The bullpen is filled with power arms, but power arms get tired. If this rotation is durable and partially effective, then this team will be very good. If the rotation is effective and durable, then this team will be awesome. But the durability is the key. Now the one thing the yankees have that the sox dont is depth. Pavano is still on this team for now, and would be the #5, but I have a feeling he moves soon. But for now he is the 5/6. Then you have guys like Karstens and Rasner who are not sexy by any means but will eat innings. Karstens averaged 6Ip per start in the minors and then averaged 6.2 last yr in 6 starts. Rasner is a guy who fought arm trouble last season, but is a guy who could go 6 innings on a given day. Will they throw shutouts and be lights out. Not likely. But these guys offer depth that will eat innings when called on and not walk people (Both Rasner and Karstens were pretty good in that area last yr). These 2 are NOT Gabbard and Pauley. Those guys walked a ton of hitters and hence were not around deep into games. Plus, the yankees have 3 top prospects in AAA who are starting pitchers. Overall, the yankees can handle injury better. They should get more innings out of their rotation than the sox will and as long as they reach the magic number of 900 and potentially 1000 then this team is gonna be tough to beat. The edge in my opinion is not useful to tell right now. If every single thing bounces right for both teams, then the sox will have the best rotation (potentially in all of baseball), but we know that isnt always the case. And if injury strikes, then the sox will be in a whole heapin helpin of trouble.

Now that the rotation is finalized, figured we talk about it in a dedicated thread started a little bit ago. 1. Curt Schilling is about as durable as they come, but he finally started to wear down at the end of the yr last yr. Will this trend continue? K rate was the same as his last full yr in the rotation and as always he is a location animal. One thing that really sticks out at me on him is his BAA. In 2004, it was .239, last yr it was .276. This might be a function of time catching up to him or due to him pitching injured late. If this trend continues, then he will have to reinvent himself. 2. Josh Beckett was finally durable last season, amassing 200IP for the first time in his career. One problem, he sucked. Is he sacrificing performance for durability? Who knows. His BAA only jumped 9 points, but his K/9 dropped by nearly 1.5. His BB/9 was only mildly increased by 0.3 and his K/BB dropped to a career low 2.14. What is simply unfathomable, though is the HR rate. He gave up 3 less HRs last yr than he did in his previous 3 seasons COMBINED. 36 HRs up from 14 a year ago. That is bad and shows that he lives and dies by the heat. If the kid doesnt find a way to get comfortable with an off speed pitch, then he might be better served as a closer. 3. John Papelbon is a f***ing beast. Animal on the mound as a closer. But a late season scare and now a return to the rotation may be a blessing or a curse. The guy seemed to average about 3BB/9IP in the minors and in his short stint as a starter in 2005, he averaged 4.5BB/9IP. As a closer last season, he was at 1.72BB/9IP. You can assume the walk total will rise, as will the hits now, because the guy will be going to full exhaustion instead of in short bursts of magnificence. Overall, one of the 2 big ??'s in the sox rotation. Can he stay durable? Can he develop a 3rd plus pitch to use for the second or third time through a lineup? Who knows. 4. Daisuke Matsuzaka looks to be a real solid pitcher. His Japanese stats show a guy who has actually accepted contact as he got older, which I think is a major boon. His K rate was still high, his walk totals were low and he is rather durable. So long as he stays durable, he will be nice in the sox rotation, but as far as predicting, dont bother yet. 5. Tim Wakefield was injured last season in a freak injury. Barring injury, pencil him down for 200 innings, a 4.5 era and his team will win half of the games he starts. SOLID #5. The pen is still filled with huge piles of dogshit, so they need to lessen the amount of dogshit their team will step in. Their rotation, listed and predicted ad nauseum as a major strength of this team will be required to be just that. Not just durable, but effective. Lacking a closer, this rotation better have guts, cause the pen will be blowing some wins for them. Schilling is a must at 200 innings. Beckett needs to find his effectiveness, so his durability vs effectiveness ratio goes out the window. Obviously, if he logged 200 innings of 4ERA ball, the sox would be very happy. Matsuzaka needs to give innings and not fall victim to the lofty expectations. Papelbon needs to give innings but walk the line of being very cautious with that arm. Wake if healthy will be wake, so no issues there. This rotation has the potential to be stellar or the potential to completely f*** this team. The O isnt what it used to be even with Nancy and the wife beater. So the staff will have to step up.

NO, not Cox. You wanna do what you did to Hansen to another kid?

Teahan will be at 1b

I dunno. If that is the case then why the hell dont the yankees take LaRoche?? I think this is all gonna be a big smokescreen. The Braves want Gonzalez as do the yankees. The Pirates are gonna want more then Melky and the Yankees wont want to part with more than him. The Braves are gonna want more than Gonzalez for LaRoche. Unless there are some other parts moving, I dont see this being something that gets done (hope and pray).

I dont think the Pirates want an arb eligible player who will likely make a ton of money. Also, he took a major turn for the worse last yr in SLG and K's. Other than that, I have no clue why they would turn that down.

last yr was insane for rookies. What a class. Add in Jered Weaver and you are talking 3 aces and a bulldog closer.

Alex Gordon, the guy is gonna be special in KC.

Giles is a VERY interesting possibility. What player is he, the one from 03 or the bum from last yr. One thing to consider is how he and his brothers power seemed to dip around the same time, right after steroid testing began. Maybe they were juicing together to keep it in the fam?

so...um...he's gonna win the CY in his first yr in the bigs?

so he has a 98 mph fastball and two plus plus offspeed pitches, one that is thrown to pinpoint location and is almost 40mph slower than his heater? In short, no he doesnt. Cmon now.

I had a friend on my baseball team in college many years ago. He was a terrible starter, but as a closer, the kid was absolutely money. He got hurt one yr and we tried to switch one of our best overall pitchers into the closers role. It was a frickin disaster. The guy didnt have the stones to close. Put him back in the rotation, and we was lights out, got drafted actually. I closed for a short time in college too. Nothing like it. You beat yourself up over it more than anyone else. I couldnt imagine doing it in fenway in front of 36K screaming, rabid fans every night on top of the mental torture you put yourself through as well. But overall, the best closers are the ones that handle adversity well. Your guts arent tested when you come in and get 3 straight outs. Your guts are tested when you know you dont have your best stuff or when you let that first batter reach. Some completely unravel, some love the pressure. You need to have a guy who isnt afraid to fail at the biggest moments of the game. It is a special quality that only the most intense players or the silently confident ones possess. Paps and Rivera are those two polar opposites. But you need someone like that, especially in fenway. I didnt see it in Hansen. I didnt see it in MDC. Maybe this Cox kid has it. Maybe Hansack does, who knows.

yikes. That would be an issue.

my bad.

wont be happening. I dont think we see Igawa till midseason. Matsuzaka should be prtty damn good by then.

paps. He was a top notch reliever. I said this was a good deal bringing in a solid major league vet. But done fool yourself here. The guy is not going to make not having a closer any easier. What he will do is make Timlins job a little easier setting up. But the closer role still needs filling.