jacksonianmarch

Its more common sense than anything. I like Lester as a human being and think he is a great ambassador for cancer and for the game, but the guy is not going to be anything significant (like All Star caliber or CY caliber) on the field itself. Ellsbury has the potential to be a Kenny Lofton style player (in his prime) and that is All Star caliber. IMO, it isnt even close.

I'd break it down like this... Hughes- Lester Melky- Crisp XXX- Lowrie and Masterson IMO, Hughes is significantly better than Lester both in projection and currently IMO, Melky is currently marginally better than Crisp, but his projection is significantly better, plus he is much cheaper That leaves the last 2, IMO. Either the sox consider lester to be better than Hughes, or they are so convinced that Lowrie and Masterson are must haves that logic escapes them. If you put Horne in the discussion as the third guy, then you cancel out Masterson. That leaves Lowrie as the deciding factor. if that is truly the case and Lowrie was the must have in this deal, I think the twins could easily have gotten him with a smaller fish than santana.

That young pitching depth was predicated on having solid pitching at the top. With the exodus of Garza and Santana, their depth will be seriously tested. You have Liriano and Slowey. lester will be in the rotation. After that, it is a crap shoot. Baker? Probably

both absolutely dominated the minor leagues to a tune of WHIPs at or below 1 and K/9 > 9. Both came up to the majors and in their short spans still has better numbers than Lester even though Hughes had a spell where he was terrible and Kennedy pulled a back muscle. Lester has a WHIP in his 2 MLB seasons of 1.5, that is absolutely terrible for a guy who doesnt have dominant stuff.

Just heard it on ESPNEWS. Deal seems imminent, does not include Buchholz or Ellsbury. I mean, what the f***?

I agree. Time to move on. I'd tell the twins that the package stands at Hughes, Melky and a middle tier prospect like a Marquez. If they come back with hughes, melky and horne, you take it.

There is a difference between upside and likelihood. Masterson may have the upside of a Lowe or a Wang. But his sinker isnt on Wang's level and his secondary stuff isnt up to Lowe or Webb's. And in the article, it says that the Twins are looking at him as a setup man. Hence, a setup man. That would be like me saying that Kennedy's upside is Maddux. Just because they have similar styles does not mean that is what they will be. That being said, if you are talking solely about setting up, which is what the Twins seem to be looking at, I think we can match him. And yes, while Melancon and Sanchez were TJ recipients the past season, that shouldnt be too much of a detractor since the surgery has such a high success rate. Either way, we dont need to dispute Masterson's worth as I think he is a solid pitcher, but he is in AA and is a questionable starting prospect at best. Is this really the guy to go ga ga over in this deal? IMO, he could be had in a side deal for a reliever, he doesnt need to be the sleeper need in the deal. The lefty thing with Lester is something that cannot be overlooked. But his projectability seems in serious question. For 2 seasons in the majors and throughout his minor league career, he has never kept guys off the bases enough on a consistent basis to be a top tier starter. I remember Gammons a few yrs back saying that he would take Lester over Hughes every day of the week. Homerism at its best as Lester is either a shell of his former self or was a product of hype. He is kinda like a Chase Wright with a better curveball. And in terms of lefties, even if they deal Santana, the Twins will still have one in Liriano. But if you want to take the lefty angle, then you have an argument that cannot be rebuked. In terms of Lowrie, my position on his inclusion is more the fact that the sox kinda need to deal him. As much as the sox spin machine tries, it wont spin Lowrie into being a SS of the future. He played 2b in college, has a slower first step and projects to be a 2b again. And with the ROY in place at 2b, where are the sox going to put him. In terms of jockeying for positioning here, the Twins should be insisting on his inclusion as a default. he wont be a deal breaker on the sox side. At the same time, though, he projects as a .280 something hitter, 10-15 homer kind of guy. Not the kind of guy you go outta your way to deal for, but a nice inclusion nonetheless.

The problem being, I think the A's are more dangerous. They scout better. And while I dont think we answer any phone call from Oakland that includes Hughes, I have a feeling they will find 3 guys to package with Kennedy that will end up being very good. You see, we have eschelons to our system. At the top you have Hughes, Joba, Kennedy, Montero. Those guys are either already established, or are cant miss talents. But a deal like Kennedy, Jackson, Betances or whatever can really come back to bite us. Because the A's are good at getting the guys before they get to the cusp, but they get guys who seem to always turn out barring injury. The only deal to this point that has sucked for them was the Hudson deal and that is only because the biggest piece (Meyer) had shoulder surgery and hasnt been the same since. I just dont want another Mulder deal, with an ace, setup man and future AS 1b going the other way for a half yr of production.

Just read a Tim Brown piece from last night. We may not be dead yet. Apparently, the Twins relented on having Kennedy in the deal, but wanted both Alan Horne and AJax. That is one hell of a package and still too much. But I think a package of Hughes, Horne and Melky beats anything the sox throw their way short of a Buchholz Ellsbury duo.

I liked TClip, but this deal makes sense. He essentially showed that he takes a full yr to get adjusted to his level. Last yr, we rushed him and he imploded. This yr, he will start in AAA for the Nats and should be a nice MLB addition comes 2009. The problem for him was our depth, and not his ability. I think he profiles as a middle of the rotation kind of guy as he historically has solid command of good offspeed arsenal. But he pitches backwards, and that should behoove him in the NL. Nothing but good luck from my end, I liked him. But in order to get something, you need to give up something. We get a 6'5" 250 pound 3/4 guy who is very imposing on the mound, kinda like Masterson. Except this guy has already had a limited amount of big league success. 1.88ERA in his 14IP MLB debut. What I like about the guy is that he can strike out people, but he also induces a ton of grounders. He throws low 90s with a solid splitter and should be vying for not only a spot in middle relief, but is a candidate as a setup man.

And who has been saying this the entire time? Masterson profiles as a solid setup man. And actually, I had a buddy of mine who just got his contract purchased who said the exact same thing. He did say that facing him was like putting your life on the line though, a 3/4 tilt on a 95mph sinking fastball does not sound like fun IMO.

And if we get Haren and you guys get Santana, it will absolutely be a win for you guys for now. But it depends on who goes which way IMO. For me, the only guy we should even consider offering Hughes for is Santana. If we can get Haren for Kennedy and a bunch of kids, then so be it. But I am still perplexed by the offers I am hearing. The only conceivable offer that could possibly get Santana on the sox side includes Ellsbury and either Lester or Buchholz. If they wanted that much talent from the Yankees, that is the only conceivable way this gets done IMO. If the difference is a potential setup man in Masterson, then we have a couple who profile just a nice in the setup role or even closer role (Humberto Sanchez, Mark Melancon, Kevin Whelan, Ross Ohlendorf). That shouldnt be the deal breaker or maker here. I just fail to see how a Hughes led package can be beaten by a backup CFer in Crisp and a back of the rotation starter in lester plus 2 kids. I just dont see it. And if that is the way the Twins want to do it, then I dont think we should dance that dance. You can have him, we'll figure something out.

Beane doesnt need to deal him, but at the same time, there was a report a few weeks back essentially saying that Beane is ready to rebuild. He has a nice core of kids coming up, but by the time they establish themselves, guys like Haren and Blanton will be FAs. It is a timing issue. So instead of go through yrs of mediocrity, he'll take the Guardians approach and blow it up for close to MLB ready talent now. This way, all of his kids are around for the same period of time and by the 3rd or 4th season, he should have another solid club.

The sox will have won for 2008. If he goes to Free Agency, we win big time.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3140498&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines They are asking for Hughes, Kennedy and Melky. Hughes is still considered a future ace and right now is at least a #3 pitcher. Kennedy right now is at least a back end pitcher with #3 potential. Melky is one of the better armed CFers in the game and has solid offensive AVG potential. That's 3 guys who are already in the majors, one with a very high potential and two with solid potentials who are more realistic to reach them. WAY too much, even for the best pitcher in baseball. If the sox get Johan for Ellsbury and 2 minor leaguers, I will s*** myself. The fact that the Twins are turning down 3 solid 23 and under Major Leaguers makes me feel as if they dont have much interest in dealing him unless they are blown away. We'll see if they change their tune when their backs go against the wall. Unless the sox include Buchholz, I dont see how they get him. But they have pulled off the surprise before.

sounds like the Yankee talks are dead. They want Hughes, Kennedy, and Melky? That is way too much.

Depends on what you are looking for. For the Twins, they very well may be more interested in a CFer, but with the loss of Garza, they have thinned out some of their pitching depth. I honestly think that the Garza move was a pre-emptive move for the acquisition of a pitcher, either Lester, Hughes, Buch or Kennedy

If I were Hank, I'd stick to my word. With Pettitte back, the needs falls more on the Twins side in terms of a need to deal him than it is on our side in a need to have him fashion. Sure, it would be awesome to have him anchor our staff, but with the top 2 spots secure, we are a lot better off than Wang and a bunch of kids then moose.

BTW, I didnt know it was the Times that reported that the Twins like Ellsbury more than Hughes. The Times, ie the paper that has an owners share in the Red Sox. The NY paper with the Boston slant. Consider the source on this one.

Haren is going to cost a lot more than Santana. He is under contract for 3 more seasons, is cheap, and is 2 yrs younger.

Well, the twins are in a hole now. If Smith does come away with a championship in Santana's walk yr, then he'll go down in history as the ultimate "NOW" GM. If the Twins dont, then this move is an utter failure. You have the opportunity to get yourself a top pitching prospect at the age of 21 who has already had some success in the majors and in the playoffs and you pass to go for it? Not sure what the logic is behind it. If he is banking on Santana and Liriano being a 1-2 punch, has he forgotten that Liriano is coming off surgery? As good a surgery as it is these days, the standard "return to glory" time is 2 yrs. So we can expect Liriano to be a workhorse along with Santana? This guy is a moron. But I think that is the absolute best case scenario for us. Hang onto Johan, have him veto any trade offer at mid season and come to us next yr for strictly cash.

Couple things that get totally overlooked on pettitte... He threw 17 games with 6 or more IP and 2 or less runs last yr, exactly half his starts. Of those, he won 10 of them, getting either a loss or a ND in 7 of those games. With a team like the Yankees, that is incredibly unlucky. AND, he had a terrible 2 start stretch that totally skewed his numbers. The games were on July 1st and 6th, which totalled 6.2IP and 15ER. Without just those 2 starts, his season ERA drops by half a run. Add in the fact that he was absolutely money down the stretch (11-3 post AS break) when we were still climbing back into the race, and you have a clutch pitcher who was still one of the better pitchers in the game last season. If he had any stroke of luck with our offense, he might have had an outside shot at 200IP. But what he offers us is a proven playoff pitcher. The guy is dynamite when it matters and he showed it again last yr vs the Guardians with his 6+IP shutout performance. Do I think he still has 3 or 4 yrs left in him? Not at that level, but having him around for 1-2 more seasons should be absolutely beneficial. This has the added benefit of adding 200IP to the staff and subtracting the need for Mussina to be in the rotation. As much as you may want to demean Pettitte Sr. Crunchy, this is a big move for us and one that has a stabilizing effect on a tumultuous pitching staff. With Pettitte back, we can technically "take the hit" of not getting Santana. We'd still have 2 guys at the top of the rotation who together should combine for approx 35-40 wins and over 400IP. Thus taking the heat off the kids and making their transition much smoother.

this is HUGE

I dont think win shares are a terribly important stat. If you were a small market team trying to build around a small core of players, than it may have some utility. But as a large market team with marquee players at nearly every position, getting a player that will considerably add to playoff dominance is more important than deciding which guy will help you go from 95 wins to 100.

If I actually had faith that they would stick to the deadline, I'd be overjoyed by this statement. Johan's statement about emphasizing his NT clause during the season would be even more important IMO. This means that the Twins lose all leverage. I have an eery feeling that there is someone else in this mix that nobody talks about. On one end, the yankees dont leak anything, they just flat out tell the media. On the sox end, they control leaks very well, so one would assume that all of their "negotations" are going public to make the yankees pay through the nose. I have said all along that I dont think the sox are serious in this chase unless they can get him for much less than they are comfortable with. Just remember the deals... Texas was supposed to end up with Beckett. Boston was only a speculated destination. Then, the "leak" was that they had agreed on a trade. Curt Schilling was supposed to go to the yankees. Then you hear about the sox and dbacks agreeing to a deal and the whole thanksgiving stuff to try and get him to drop his NT. DiceK was giftwrapped to NY. Then 51.1mil later, the sox won the bidding. They dont leak things until they happen. This speculation has me speculating that this is all a hoax to raise the price.