jacksonianmarch

I find this to be absolutely disturbing... You have a major conference team that was #1 at one point with 1 loss against a team that was also a #1 at one point in the season, not making it to the championship game. Then you have a team that went undefeated in a 1A conference that isnt playing for the BCS. Yet you have LSU, who lost to two, count it, two unranked teams playing for the national title? I dont have a problem with OSU playing in the BCS, although I think they will get smoked again. But the fact that Kansas AND Hawaii can have a better record and lose to a better opponent or go flat out undefeated in the process is damn near criminal. Playoffs are indicated.

It is very interesting how the Twins want to push this thing. In terms of urgency, the only thing that makes this an urgent move from the yankee standpoint is the sox getting him. If the sox are not in line to get him, which our offer would seem to guarantee, then I am okay with them going into the yr as the Twins ace. That being said, the fact that the twins would get Hughes in this deal, plus others is amazing. They wont be able to get such a deal at the break because most likely, Hughes will be a necessary part of our team, as will melky. Right now is the time where we have contingency plans and I have a feeling that the ability to make such a huge move is only doable during the offseason.

losing Hughes would hurt, but it isnt like we arent getting something back in return. I still think that we could have held out and won the sweeps without Hughes. Either way, this is as far as we should go.

I am not comparing Tabata and Ellsbury.

Your comparison to CMW doesnt really hold much water. He wasnt even throwing a 2 seamer until he made it to Columbus in 2004. The AAA pitching coach at the time thought he would have more success throwing it in on righties since his 4 seamer/slider combo wasnt up to snuff for the bigs. And the rest is history...

Posada was quoted yesterday as saying Pettitte is leaning towards retiring. This is the second person close to Pettitte to state this possibility publicly. Although Pettitte was nearly adamant at this time last season, he may be serious this time. If this is the case, then we have a problem.

The problem with your argument is that Kennedy already is a major leaguer while masterson was average at AA this past season. Also, as I said before, Masterson profiles to be a reliever based upon his lack of a 3rd reliable pitch. So in terms of worth, a 21 yr old #3 starter in the majors now or a AA pitcher who profiles as a reliever. It isnt even close. In terms of Tabata, his age at the level must be taken into account. The kid his for solid average this yr as an 18 yr old in High A while having a nagging injury. He has 5 yrs to develop the power potential before he reaches Lowrie's current age. Regardless, this upcoming season will be a good one to watch out of Tabata as his lack of power excuses (wrist problems essentially) will have been definitively taken care of.

Jones' agent is Boras. No 50 cents on the dollar deals for this guy. Which is a problem when his client is coming off his worst season.

how do you know? He has never played a full season. He hits for power, has a good eye and K's a ton. Thats all we know right now.

In terms of the two "other guys" the sox are talking about, here is a prospectus SR on both of them... And Homer Gammons called these guys studs? Studs are players who project to be studly in the majors. These are guys like Hughes, Chamberlain, Buchholz, etc. Not a reliever and a "jury is still out" middle infielder.

I am surprised Betemit hasnt come up in conversation. They are looking for a young, powerful, cheap corner IFer and Betemit fits the bill.

Per Buster Olney. Last yr he put together essentially the same numbers as he did with the sox. He's a nice bench guy to have around, but certainly not a nice starter to have around. I just hope this isnt a pre-emptive move prior to a deal involving Cano.

Haren may actually cost more since he is cost controlled through 2010. The A's are looking to rebuild, but they have the time to wait on dealing Blanton and Haren.

I think just as important for the yankees is that they dont gut their future. Nowadays, guys get signed before they hit the FA market, so buying all the high priced FAs is not a solid MO for building a great team. Also, with Pettitte essentially saying that he is leaning towards retiring, we are down to 1 reliable pitcher (Wang), 1 over the hill pitcher (Mussina), and 3 top notch kids. If we deal away 2 of them, we have an ace in Santana, a 2 in Wang, a sub 5 in Moose and one of the kids left. Who fills the 5 hole? Who takes over when Moose falls apart? These are problems we will be running into.

I think I predicted this a week ago when the Yankees were in "preliminary discussions" for Santana. The Sox would get into it, they would be in the lead, then another team, then us, then another team and around and around it will go. The Winter Meetings is a place where many a GM has made their hay or dug their own grave. We'll see who blinks.

it is also hard to imagine that Lester is still a 5 star player. Or Crisp for that matter. Like I said, the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz changes the game dramatically.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/11/29/thursday.scoop/?eref=mostpop good Heyman article

Kennedy>Lester. Lester's career best WHIP was 1.15 in 2005 in AA. Other than that, he has been over 1.3 in his MiLB career. Over his major league career, he has made 25 starts, compiling a WHIP of 1.57 in that time. Over his MiLB career, he has compiled a WHIP of 1.31. Both are poor when considering the type of pitcher Lester is. I know a lot of people want to give him tons of credit in terms of his SR due to the cancer, and I love the guy for his determination, but lets be honest here. He's a high 80s-low 90s pitcher with shaky control. He allows a TON of baserunners and through nothing other than luck, he has avoided the major disaster. I expect his K rate to stay respectable, but if he continues to walk 4+ per 9IP, he will be burned. Kennedy OTOH, is a full yr younger and doesnt have the health concerns that go along with Lester. He throws high 80s to low 90s, but is known as a total control freak. In his only minor league season, he walked 1 per 9 less than Lester did without giving up the hits that Lester did. Also, throughout all levels of the minors, Kennedy maintained a near 9K/9IP rate. Plus, his stellar debut in the majors also speaks to his ability. He doesnt have the breaking ball that Lester has, but Lester doesnt have the changeup or the fastball location that kennedy does. All told, Kennedy has a slight edge IMO which will grow if Lester doesnt consistently locate this upcoming yr. Melky>Crisp in terms of age, ceiling, and potential. Melky was given the CF job in May. From May 1 to the end of August he hit .313 with a .810+OPS. September was uncharacteristically bad for him (18 for 100). That being said, he is a solid defensive CFer with good range and a great arm. 14 assists speaks to his arm ability. Crisp is the better ranged OFer and the better baserunner. But in terms of ceiling, Crisp is likely at his while Melky has more room to project. Tabata=Lowrie. Lowrie is ready now. He could be a solid 2b for many yrs and will be a good OBP bet due to his good eye. That being said, Tabata played High A ball all season with a cyst in his wrist that caused him significant pain. He has had surgery to fix this problem. Even with this hindrance, he hit over .300, had an OBP of .371 and stole 15 bases. He has a great arm and the kicker is, he just turned 19. In terms of right now, Lowrie is the right guy, but nobody can deny Tabata's tools. And with the possibility of him being totally healthy and adding to his power potential, he might end up being the jewel of any prospective deal. I give Lowrie a slight edge due to his position and his proximity to the bigs. In terms of Horne vs Masterson. Nobody will doubt Masterson's ability. He's 6'6" and throws gas. That being said, Horne has proven he can be both a sinkerballer and a strikeout pitcher. And prior to a late season swoon, he was absolutely dominant with a WHIP below 1.2. But most of the argument here harkens to their projectability. Horne made major strides with his sinker and changeup this season. Enough so that he is in the picture as a SP. Masterson, OTOH, has been a reliever in the eyes of most scouting sites since being drafted and he has done nothing to change that. Will Masterson be a better reliever than Horne will be as a starter? Probably. But that being said, an above average starter is worth more than a good reliever these days.

The point is that the other guys I have on my list are either in the MLB already or will be by the end of the season. The only guy on that list who is long range is Tabata, who just hit over .300 in High A as an 18 yr old. As far as long range, he'll be in the bigs before he can legally drink. If we wanted to go lower levels, we could go lower levels. Our draft from a yr ago was money as were our DSL signees. Our draft from this yr may be better, who knows. The point being, that I understand that the Twins want players who will be in the bigs by 2009. An offer of Horne, Melky, Kennedy, and Tabata have 3 of those guys fitting criteria with Tabata on the outside, but not totally unplausible. In terms of filling positions of need. Well, do they get a guy who is already producing at better than Crisp levels with the bat who is 23 and may end up being a solid CF for yrs to come, or do they settle on a stop gap like Crisp. I continue to hold that the only position we cant match on is the MIFer Lowrie. Then again, this isnt Hanley Ramirez part deux here. This is a limited ceiling, solid OBP player who could play a nice 2b. He isnt a deal winner IMO. But who knows. I have a feeling we get a better idea once the Winter Meetings start.

Kennedy>Lester Melky>Crisp Tabata= to slightly Horne>Masterson

prospectus put out their yankee list of 4 star prospects. Jackson, Tabata, Horne and Kennedy are all 4 star prospects and happen to be the four being discussed in this deal.

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2007/11/29/yo-yo-johan/ the BH clubhouse insider isnt really opening eyes here. But it sounds like we will go into the winter meetings without a deal in place. That means lots of teams will be vying for Santana.

Selig wants parody. And a sox deal for Santana makes them favorites to win the WS for the next 4 or 5 yrs.