jacksonianmarch

I find it interesting that many sox fans seem to consider Ellsbury a sure bet. And while I think the guy is a high energy, high ceiling kind of guy, you really know not what you will get from him next season. And the fact that your backup right now is at least defensively savvy in Crisp, you wont totally f*** yourself if you deal off Ellsbury. And you are correct on the power aspect. Hanley was always considered strong, the question was whether or not he would grow into his power. Ellsbury is not considered to be of that ilk and will likely have a couple of career yrs in the double digits of HRs, but aside from that is most likely slated for single digits, with a ton of legged out doubles, triples and steals. This is true, but Pridie isnt really a cant miss guy. At the same time, he is intriguing enough to make things interesting. I agree that the sox would be willing to deal a few pitchers, but the fact that their best MiLB pitcher is not in the mix makes this puzzling. A package headlined pitching wise by Lester and Masterson is eminently beatable. Kennedy/Horne for one, and that is without Hughes being in the mix. Lester and Masterson project as 2's? In what universe? Lester will be a back rotation kinda guy unless he gets his location down. WHIP's>1.5 kinda suck and he seems to be pretty good at putting them up. Masterson has been projected by damn near every scouting site as being a middle reliever. Unless he develops his change to a point to where it is as useful as his fastball and breaking ball, that projection will likely hold true. Lowrie does project as an OBP kind of player, but I dont think the projection states that he will be a MLB SS. That being said, the Twins 2b sucks too and I think Lowrie ends up there if dealt. No issue there about Pedroia. And the sox system is deep in SS prospects, but they are mostly lower level players right now. When you are dealing the best pitcher in baseball during his prime, do you really want a solid yet unspectacular deal coming back. A guy who can "hold the fort" until another guy develops? A pitcher who may or may not end up starting? A pitcher who may or may not find the plate enough to be anything more than a Casey Fossum redux? An IFer who might be slated for SS, but is better suited as a 2b? This kinda doesnt make sense on a bunch of levels. Either Hank pulled back from the table, the twins are asking for more from the yankees out of spite, or this link is full of BS. So Lester's arm issues this yr dont factor in. And the idea that he had a life threatening disease that may or may not come back doesnt factor into his health? Making an argument including health and Jon Lester immediately invalidates the point. As much as I respect Lester and think he is one hell of a battler and a human being, when you strip away the emotion, you have as big a health liability as there is in the game today. And 4 star prospects to one? Is that list updated? So Kennedy, Tabata, Horne and Melky includes no 4 star prospects? The MiLB pitcher of the yr, the yankee top position prospect, the EL pitcher of the yr and a 23 yr old starting switch hitting CFer from the yankees all pale to the package above? I dont see it, but we will see in the coming weeks. On the surface, the middle, the bottom, the sides and from a distance, this package is short. Replace Crisp with Ellsbury or Lester with Buchholz and you have a player. But like I said before, I think this is either a tactic to drag more out of NY, is BS, or is typical Yankee negotiation tactics from other teams.

I am sure you can find metrics to fit your argument when it comes to defense and I wont deny that Coco has more range. But Melky has a better arm, is 5 yrs younger, and showed more consistency with the bat last yr. Melky was hitting over .300 going into September, bro. Coco was awful all but 2 months of the yr. Regardless, 5 yrs is a big difference when it comes to a CFer and the idea of him being at league minimum to start makes him a much more attractive option.

I will say this, if this rumor is true, then A. Theo should get a new clause in his contract of a BJ daily from a Playboy Bunny B. Hank Steinbreen and Cashman should really look at their options If you guys offer up Ellsbury and Buchholz to get Santana, then I'd push back from the table and say, you guys get him, congrats. But not beating an offer of Lester- A lefty pitcher who has never limited his baserunners. With a career MLB WHIP> 1.5 and a career MiLB WHIP of >1.3, what do they expect? Add to that the fact that he just recovered from cancer (which I absolutely applaud him for), what do they expect out of him? He's a 3 at best and right now, might not even be fit to be a back end guy. Lowrie- a solid yet unspectacular MIF prospect who will likely settle in at 2b. Masterson- a short arsenal starter who will most likely slot in as a middle relief guy. And Coco- the disappointing, switch hitting solid D CFer who is controlled for 2 yrs at 5 mil per. This has the makings of a raping. I just dont see how we dont trump that. I think that Kennedy's track record in the MiLB and his solid debut shows that he limits BR's better than Lester and should be considered a bit more highly than the lefty. ORS is right, we dont have an IF equivalent for Lowrie. At the same time, that shouldnt be a deal breaker. If we offer up Horne, we'll be offering a better pitcher than Masterson and a guy who projects to the rotation. Melky>Coco, I dont think there is much of an argument there. Younger, better arm, marginally better bat right now, cost controlled at minimum bigger ceiling. And then the opportunity to throw in a guy like Tabata or AJax who project to be more dynamic than a guy like Lowrie. Even without throwing in Hughes, we have a package that should beat the proposed deal above. Hence why I have a feeling that this is either BS, or the package is incorrect. I also wouldnt be too surprised if this is a "leak" from the twins to try and up the ante from NY.

Of course he is. The deal is about 25 cents on the dollar.

That offer is a BS offer IMO. The only way the sox put themselves ahead of the game is with the inclusion of Ellsbury or Buchholz. That is the only way they elevate their game above the pack and force us to add to the pot. Unless the yankees are totally committed to hanging onto the "big 3" and have no interest in dealing any of our higher level players, I call BS on their reported deal. That being said, I wouldnt doubt if the sox became the frontrunners. But I'd expect either one or both of Buchholz and Ellsbury to be in the package. You arent getting Santana without one of them going the other way.

To put things in even more perspective, you would say that Beckett just had an awesome season, right? Beckett's WHIP from last yr would be a career worst for Santana by 0.07. Beckett's K/9IP would also be a career worst for Santana by 0.55 per 9. His walk total from last yr, which was a total aberration from his previous seasons, is where Santana typically sits, a shade under 2 per 9. Beckett's H/9IP would be a career worst by nearly a hit per 9 IP. And since he became a full time SP in 2004, his post season ERA in 3 starts is nearly a half a run LOWER than the beast slayer Beckett's. The idea that Santana "isnt that good" is ridiculous.

Comparability score is useless. The fact remains, for the past 4 yrs, he has been the best pitcher in baseball. That is a non-disputable fact. 2 CY's, and to be honest with you, he should have 3. If he played on a team with a better offense, he'd have won 20 games for 3 consecutive season. AND, he is 28 yrs old right now. You have the opportunity to have another 5-6 yrs of prime from a pitcher who has dominated for 4 seasons already. The idea that he isnt all that good is assinine and ridiculous to begin with.

Young does nothing for their CF spot, though. And if you figure that the sox had Jacoby to offer while the yankees had Melky, I think that position is a potential strength for the sox in negotiations. When you talk about pitching, I dont think the sox have the opportunity to match up.

The point would still remain that you would have 50 mil locked up in 2 pitchers. And, one thing theo has always been able to do is get an edge in negotiations. He's been burned before trying to get that edge, but look around at your team. Becks resigned when he was sucking, now looks like a damn bargain. Lowell signed to below market because theo knows A. He wants to stay and B. Fenway made him last season. But there is ZERO way to gain an edge with Santana. If the sox deal for him and they try to negotiate, what angle will they use? They can't DiceK him and say sign this or you wont be a major leaguer next yr. They cannot definitively say, sign this or you'll be stuck in Minnesota next yr. They cannot do anything. Santana has all the leverage in the world. If he doesnt get exactly what he wants, he'll wait out the season and be a FA and then get exactly what he wants. And when you have 1 bona fide ace, another guy who could be in DiceK, a solid vet foundation and then 2 kids who look pretty good, the need is in question.

Here is why you send Buchholz to the minors. A. The MiLB season starts 2 weeks after the MLB season does. That is 3 starts, or roughly 20 innings saved. B. You can have him throw how ever many innings you want and pull him regardless of the in-game situation thus maximizing his effectiveness when he eventually ascends to the majors. and probably the most important C. You have 5 effective MLB starters. Who are you gonna bench? Not Beckett or DiceK. You just signed Schill, and he is no reliever. Lester? The kid who battled back from cancer, finished solid and is ready now. Or Wake, the ever present pitcher who won 17 games last yr? You have a plethora of pitching right now. 2 guys are antiques. This means that Buch will get his chance. Until then, the 5 you have is nice enough.

2007 Melky- .273 8HR 73RBI .327OBP .391SLG Crisp- .268 6HR 60RBI .330OBP .380SLG Crisp has the edge in range, Melky has the edge in arm. Melky is 23, Crisp is 28. Melky is under control for 4 more yrs, Crisp for 2. I think the thing about Melky that was so intriguing is that when he finally was given the starting job, he batted .314 for 4 months with a .810+OPS only to see it all go crashing down in September when he went 18 for 100. And he is 23, so he has some more room to grow than Crisp does.

all GMs make some crappy moves. What Cashman did, was change the yankee philosophy. Yes, they will continue to spend money, but he made it so that their minor league system wasnt a total barren wasteland of nothingness. He pumped some of that money into scouting and now we have one of the better MiLB systems in the game, and probably one of the top 10 pitching farms in the game even without our big 3. What he has done is simply fantastic for the longevity of this team. I do admit that his short term moves havent panned out all that fantastically, but we have sailed past those and the pitching future, or even the present with a little luck, seems to be on track.

and they dealt a 39 yr old in the last yr of his contract when at the beginning of the season they had no spot for him. Throw in the fact that he didnt even finish the season and I'd say the deal is looking pretty good. In fact, we got 2 blue chip prospects and a throw in, not the way you put it. And while Humberto did need TJ, the yankees have proven they are not afraid of this surgery (ie drafting Brackman and Melancon when it was obvious they needed TJ).

And to be honest with you, I dont think the sox truly want him if you ask me. Santana is going to command 25 mil a season and in 2 yrs, so will Beckett. You already have an ace in Beckett and a budding one in DiceK. Right now we have a #3 in Wang and a bunch of kids. Now if Pettitte were coming back definitively, I think that takes away some of the desperation, but the fact remains. You guys have an ace and a couple big time prospects, then a steep dropoff. We dont have an ace, we have 3 top prospects in the rotation already with some deep pitching throughout the system. If they wanted to rape us, we have the depth to get boned deep. I just hope that Hank stays out of this and keeps his damn mouth shut. Cashman knows what he is doing as evidenced by the solid work he did in the Sheff trade and the RJ trade. We need to make sure we arent on the other end of getting fleeced when we know this guy needs to be dealt and we know he is going to break records with his contract demands.

I dont think it is.

I have a feeling that the Twins will have preliminary talks with a few teams. They want to and essentially need to gauge the market and what will be offered. I did like what a Minny columnist stated today, essentially telling twins fans that the twins shouldnt expect to be as spoiled as they had been in previous deals. IE the Pierzynski or the Knoblauch deals where all stars came back in return. The fact that Santana is coming off his worst (yet still spectacular) season, has one yr left and will get the richest pitching contract ever, all points towards the twins getting 50 cents on the dollar. Their best bet is to get into a bidding war between the sox and yankees.

that was really cool

Raines should make it in eventually. Not first ballot, but eventually IMO. .385 career OBP, 800+SB, 170HR, .294 career AVG dragged down by hanging on too long.

ESPN is picking up the story too. f***ing tragic man, I hope they string up the bastard who did this.

I think the rest period in between is just as important. If you consider that you are doing an exercise, resting, exercise, resting, etc, that takes a big toll. I think both are equally important.

I think the opposite Ksush. If the sox shorten Buch's innings early, they will avoid the abuse that Francona will put on his arm. It is kinda funny how the sox have a manager who will go to the pen after it is apparent that a guy is done, and the old yankee manager went to the pen at the first sign of trouble. Either way, Buch should see no more than 5 innings for the first 2 months, then should be fresh enough to throw a solid # of innings for Boston as the finish line comes about. To be honest with you, this is what we should do with Joba if we have that luxury.

Got this one off rotoworld. Sean Taylor was shot in a burglary attempt in Florida. Reports say that the bullet severed his femoral artery and he is "fighting for his life". Damn. Good luck.

I think they want to do what we wanted to do with Hughes last yr. Bring him up midseason when there is a need. I guarantee you that one of your pitchers will either be injured for a long duration or be very ineffective and need replacement. It happens every yr and with 2 40 something pitchers, a Japanese guy who faded down the stretch and another kid in the rotation, that is a very real possibility that one person doesnt live up to the hype. This is why I think Buchholz finishes the yr as one of your top 3 starters and will go from there. The point is, you have 5 options at the MLB level right now. Let them sort out and bring Buch in when you have more info.

Holliday is about to sign a 6 yr deal in COL. Juan Rincon regressed and cannot stay healthy. Victor Martinez is a possibility, but he will most likely be a 1b by then. Hell, they want to get him out of the catchers position now. And as nice as it is to have a few good prospects, a HS kid like Middlebrooks is very tough to project. He could lock in early and shoot up the ranks, or he could fizzle from day 1.