jacksonianmarch

4 prospects, not sure who, are headed to Pitt

I’d be surprised if it’s Dominguez. Top 50 prospect for Taillon? Not sure that makes sense

Kluber is the ultimate question mark. Taillon is coming back from a predictable injury recovery. Kluber broke his pitching arm on a comebacker then tore his teres minor muscle in his upper back. Kluber is also 36. If Taillon is healthy, as expected now 18 months post surgery, I’m fully confident he will be effective. Take a look at the peripherals on Taillon’s other seasons. His 17 was just as good as his 18, just a much higher BABIP and less innings. The other thing you need to realize is that Taillon is following Cole’s path. The Pirates’ org philosophy for developing pitchers is to utilize sinkers down and get ground balls. It wasn’t until Cole went to Houston and adopted their philosophy of power 4 seamers up in the zone that he blossomed from powerful sinkerballer to elite arm. Yanks philosophy is similar to Houston’s in that respect. Taillon may blossom into the power pitcher he was supposed to be on draft day

I do not like this move from a Sox fan perspective. His 2018 was a career year, but something broke in him after that. K rate jumped back up, but BB rate plummeted. He’s got good power for a 2b, but has consistently showed low BABIP even with a 20% K rate. He’s versatile and would be a reasonable pickup on a 1 year $3 mil deal, but $14 mil and a 2 year commitment is strange to me.

Sox don’t make that move since Taillon only has two years of control left. Taillon, assuming he passes his physical and is totally healthy, gives the Yanks a 1-2 power pitching punch atop their rotation with Cole that will only get more powerful with Sevy returning. Kluber, if he can stay healthy, adds the crafty type element of movement and command and likely would slot into the rotation as the 2 before Sevy comes back and the 3 after just so you don’t have 3 straight guys chucking 100. I’d want to see the return, clearly. Pitt is apparently looking for upside over proximity, so that really makes the whole return impossible to predict. Yanks are flush with very high ceiling (and high bust potential) kids in the short season leagues. I doubt the Yanks move Dominguez in this deal, but Cabello, Rosario, Garcia or a host of high upside arms could be on the move. Very intrigued here, but Taillon would be the punch needed for this rotation to firmly plant the Yanks as the AL favorite in 2021 and really sets us up for 22 as well. The Yanks have the upside arms in their pen or high minors to add depth too. When Sevy comes back, either JMont or Deivi would get bumped out of the rotation assuming everyone else is healthy. Consider that Schmidt and Garcia are top 100’s. You still have King, Nelson, Loaisiga, and Gil as upside arms (King less so on upside, but higher likelihood of sticking as a starter) with a host of A-AA arms behind them.

Taillon isn’t your standard “injury prone” guy. He made 25 starts in 17, threw 192 IP in 18, injures his elbow in 19 and has TJS missing the rest of 19 and all of 20. He’s a big time power pitcher with two years of control remaining. He also would be fully recovered from his procedure. If this goes through: 1. Cole 2. Taillon 3. Kluber 4. Montgomery 5. Garcia Schmidt, Loaisiga, King in the wings (depending on who is sent packing) Severino to come back mid year. I’d roll with that rotation for damn sure

This is a genius deal. It only costs money, you’ve got an option attached and if he’s great, you can deal him for a haul or run it back in 22. If he sucks, cut him loose after 21

I’m gonna go higher and bet we see Schmidt headline the return

Yanks now front runners for Taillon.

Yanks in on Taillon. Not really a bastion of health, but should be fully recovered from TJS and has just as much potential as anyone

Hate this signing as a Yankee fan. Richards is a good pitcher who made terrible decisions. He tore his UCL, opted against surgery, did the PRP route, wasted a year then got TJS, had some complications and finally came back chucking heat last year. This guy has as good a chance as any to be healthy and dominate. This is a good move, and the option for 22 will allow the Sox to keep him if it works out and utilize him when they might be better

Or who the FO thinks they could get the best haul for

I agree. Just outbid everyone on the 1 year market. I would have offered Morton, Kluber and Smyly those 1 year deals and sold them all off if their arms were still attached at the deadline

If Whitlock is healthy, he will likely last the year and be a back end rotation option

For a rebuild on a team with cash available, I’ve always wondered why a team doesn’t load up on a bunch of one year deals and then sell off the ones that hit at the deadline and essentially turn the one year of cash outlay into a prospect haul?

He doesnt really move the dial. Hernandez is a good depth guy who can play everywhere, but he is best when he isnt an everyday starter. In Boston, he would open the year as your 2b with no real challengers (unless Chavis figured out how to his anything above 92)

Rodon was on his way to being really good until his arm decided it didn't want to be part of his body anymore. Rodon would be a solid signing for the sox

Eovaldi, Pivetta and Perez

Where are the contingency plans from Bloom? I have been wondering this since last year. He seems to accumulate guys who have never even had a single good season at the big league level rather than guys who have been a flash in the pan back in the day. Might as well sign 4 or 5 guys who had one good season and then sucked than get guys who have only sucked. Maybe one of them finds it again for a year and you can ride them until they fade. It is the classic Yankee way to have a bunch of fall back options down on their luck and one of them comes up big.

ERod surpassed him in 19, although Happ did do something in 20, so there is that

Paxton's workout had him topping out around 90. That's a big problem for a guy who sits 95+ and hits 99. I think the ZIPS of 2.7 fWAR is incredibly generous. I think he might be done or time to move into relief

I think one of the frustating angles sox fans are taking is that Bloom is being almost too patient. If you are gonna rebuild, rebuild. If you are gonna go for it, go for it. This middle ground with talented players who are playing out their time in Boston but a clear understanding that the team isnt going anywhere must be frustrating. I would say either blow up the whole damn thing or start to add. Then again, maybe that is the idea and Bloom isnt seeing the kind of returns he would like?

Paxton did nothing in 2020. Happ is suddenly one of our best pitchers? Interesting, since he has been kicked out of the rotation so many times for sucking (I am sure you rubbed that in) but now he is a big loss? Tanaka is gonna hurt, I don't doubt that. But the idea that he was a co-ace with Cole is a fallacy. The guys we lost are losses. But we do gain two pitchers with 2020 in the rear view. So the question is, does a second year Garcia improve on himself? Can German outperform Happ? Can Kluber stay healthy enough to outperform Tanaka of 2020? And can Severino return and show the top of the rotation form of 17-18? There is certainly a chance Kluber is on the 60 day, Severino has a setback, Garcia has a second year pull back and German is sitting in a jail cell and the rotation is a mess. But discounting the time lapse giving us 2 pitchers back is also red sox pink hat territory, especially when touting Sale's return. The best possible scenario for the Yanks is Severino comes back throwing smoke and Kluber and Cole stay healthy. That would create a top 3 that would be unrivaled in the AL

You kinda have to remove Paxton from the equation since he is gone and gave us nothing in 2020. You could replace what Paxton gave us in 2020, lol. I guess we will see. Kluber, if healthy, will outperform Tanaka or Happ. Then again, he is 36 and coming off two major arm injuries, so the likelihood is low. The highest upside of anyone not named Kluber of the 6 you mention is Garcia, but he is only 21 years old. German has the most power of the bunch. Tanaka and Happ are steady mid rotation (Tanaka) or back of rotation (Happ) performers. Upside is with the last 3, reliability is with the first group sans Paxton.

I think you are overlooking one TJS recovery while touting the return of your own. Severino is a top notch starting pitcher who was the victim of our training staff then a victim of s*** luck with his UCL giving way. He also didnt show a loss of velocity in his time between the teres injury and the elbow exploding. We also get German back, who won 19 games in 2019. I do not intend to guess what his mind set will be, but he is an effective starter with lights out stuff with big league experience. Montgomery gets another year away from his TJS and his peripherals were pretty solid in 20. The kids on the farm, while not playing a minor league season, did get major league exposure and two blue chippers have graduated to the bigs in Schmidt and Garcia (who looked really good in his debut last year). The loss of Tanaka will hurt, but his biggest accomplishments weren't dominant starter. It was steady eddy middle of the rotation starter who had two good post seasons. His FIP's the last 4 seasons have all been in the 4's with WAR's topping out at 3.3 in 19, but averaging 2.5 in 17-18. So yes, his durability will be missed (30+ starts 3 of the last 4 full seasons) and his steadiness will be missed, but he doesnt carry a lot of upside. His production can easily be replaced by a healthy Montgomery, who's rookie season WAR would have been Tanaka's second best of the last 4 seasons. I would have liked to see a true #2 starter come in. I would have liked to see a deal with Morton, who has been better in the postseason. But we got Kluber. If he is healthy and can return to his pre2019 durability, then we have struck gold. If he cannot, then we have the pieces for a deal and the MiLB depth to at least throw a blue chipper on the mound. Most teams do not have the luxury of a big league ready top 100 prospect to slide into the rotation should someone get hurt. We have 2