jacksonianmarch

Bullpen- Closer- Aroldis Chapman- Chapman is still an elite closer, but his 2020 was interesting to say the least. K rate rose, BB rate fell but the HR rate tripled from 19. He’s also had three post season home runs hit off him that defined (or nearly in the Cubs case) the end of his team’s playoff run. He’s down 2mph from his start with the Yanks (100.1mph) but is still plenty powerful enough at 98.1 mph. Slider mix was less in 2020. I think the Yanks need to consider him a 1 inning guy, even when tempted to get a second inning out of him. He’s great at what he does, but two of those post season homers were in his second or more inning of work. (The Astro one was tainted by the garbage can bang). Setup Zach Britton- didn’t allow a single homer in the regular season last year. He has embraced what he is and saw his BB rate drop and his ERA stay under 2 for a second straight year. He’s an effective reliever capable of stepping in for Chapman should he get hurt. Setup Chad Green- Green is the right handed setup man for the Yanks who had a weird last two years. He’s been effective, yet in 2019, he had a BABIP of .346 and an ERA north of 4. In 2020, he had a BABIP of .145 and an ERA of 3.51. Looking at peripherals, it’s hard to say 2020 was a banner year. Still very effective, but a HR rate of 1.75/9IP as a late inning reliever just won’t fly. He’s always been a fly ball pitcher, so he likely will never duck under 1, but he needs to trend closer to it for sure. Green’s also useful as a multi-inning reliever Middle- Justin Wilson (assuming the rumors are true that they are near an agreement). Wilson was dealt for Green and Cessa and would be a welcome addition to the middle innings, which have become decidedly right handed. He’s a power armed guy with the penchant for the K, the walk and limiting home runs. His addition would really help to solidify the middle innings and also provide another option in the late innings for injury or rest of the prior 3. Middle- Luis Cessa- Cessa has taken an interesting journey to his relief career. Started as a big armed starter who couldn’t avoid the long ball. Two years ago he had some success transitioning to a breaking ball first reliever and he took that into overdrive in a very successful 2020 stint. He threw his fastball a career low 35% of the time. The hyper reliance on the slider and the occasional change up saw his HR rate plummet and his usage rise. The one worrying factor for me is that relievers should see a rise in their velocity yet his is down nearly 2mph from his peak. Middle Relief Darren O’Day- 38 yr old relievers who top out around 87 don’t usually move the needle. O’Day, on the contrary, has no issue with his performance beyond health, and that’s a big one. He’s missed a lot of time the last 3 seasons and guys don’t usually get healthier at 38. Either way, he’s a strange add to this team, but can be effective nonetheless. Also, for a sidearmer, he’s been surprisingly effective vs lefties, although one should not expect him to face a lot of lefties when lining up his usage Long Relief- Jonathan Loaisiga- Loaisiga isn’t far removed from being a top 100 prospect. His issue is less effectiveness and more health, although he was healthy for 2020. Last year, he appeared in 12 games, started 3 yet only threw 23 innings. He’s the epitome of a swing guy. And last year, he seemed to drop the HR rate, hone in on the walks and put together a very solid 3.52 ERA. He isn’t your usual swing guy, though. Most of those guys are sinker-slider crafty types. Loaisiga is all power, averaging over 96 mph with his fastball. Big difference with Blake as the coach was using the fastball. He used it 67% of the time, up from 56% the year prior and also saw an emphasis on his change, a scrapping of his slider, and less reliance on the curve (down to 17% from 30%) Last spot- lots of guys capable. Some with deep arsenals, others with power, some reclamation types etc. The names on this list include Brooks Kriske, Michael King, Clarke Schmidt, Asher Woj, Nick Nelson and others. For 2021, the Yanks pen is loaded and the system behind them is full of impact arms capable (not expected, but capable) of being dominant forces in the pen. As has been the last couple years, the Yanks should have one of the best pens in all of baseball, if not the best

I’ve been pretty blunt on all the pitchers. Dispute any of the above. For the Sox, you’ve got two guys (Sale and Rodriguez) who missed all of last year who are coming back at some point in 2021. Sale is in the Severino camp outside of the fact that Sale showed diminished stuff before blowing out his elbow. ERod is in a camp all his own. No clue what months of bed rest will translate into beyond conditioning early on. You’ve got the rest of the rotation as either failed prospects with big stuff (Pivetta), injury prone veterans who have been middling at best(Perez and Eovaldi) or promising prospects previously profiled to close (Houck). Hard to compare the two rotations at all as the Yanks will blow the Sox away this year.

Looks like the Yanks are adding Justin Wilson.

Starters 1. Cole- one of the best starters in baseball, Cole returns as the unquestioned ace of what’s suddenly become one of the deepest rotations in the AL. Still in prime, he’s set up for a monster 21 2. Kluber- Kluber is 2 on this list as I expect the Yanks to separate Taillon and Cole because of their similarities. Kluber has a couple CY’s under his belt, but is more a movement and command guy vs a power guy. Kluber’s issues are two fold. One is age, at 36, most pitchers start to fade. Second is health, having thrown only one inning since May of 2019 after having an arm fracture on a comebacker and a teres tear one inning into his Rangers tenure. If healthy, I expect him to be solid. If healthy and able to show standard stuff, he could be more. Lots of if’s, but on a one year commitment, he’s worth it. 3. Taillon- power, stuff, command, Taillon has ace level stuff. Coming from Pitt, though, he’s been groomed as a sinker baller which will undoubtedly change. If he takes to using his power akin to Cole and Morton before him, he could give Cole a run for his money as the ace. Taillon is a bit different than Kluber in terms of health risk. He missed time with testicular cancer that he’s now cured of. Then he needed TJS which knocked him out for a year and a half. Now 18 months post procedure (20 by opening day), he enters ST fully healthy and could be one of the best acquisitions of the offseason 4. Montgomery- Montgomery had a solid year plus from his debut season, but TJS and bicep issues afterwards wrecked 18 and 19 for him. He returned in 20 with solid peripherals (FIP and xFIP’s in the mid to high 3’s), but problematic production (5.11ERA). His fastball was up a half a tick from his debut season and now that 2021 won’t be a sprint season, I expect Montgomery to show he’s a quality back end major league starter. 5. German- I think German has a leg up for the 5 spot because I think the Yanks would rather Schmidt and Garcia get a little more minor league seasoning. German has stuff to spare and had a solid 19, but his issue isn’t physical, it’s mental. If he’s locked in, he is a quality 5. If he’s still a head case, then he could find himself on a new team shortly 6. Garcia- likely to start 21 in AAA, but will spend a lot of time in the Bronx when a starter goes down. He had a solid debut season and had the moxie and stuff to be a solid starter for a long time. 7. Schmidt- another top 100 prospect with power stuff akin to Taillon. He hasn’t had the chances Garcia has had, but he’s got more power for sure. He will likely spend more time in the Bronx than Garcia, IMO, as I expect Schmidt to transition to the pen at mid season and can be a real asset with his power. Others King, Nelson, Loaisiga In the wings: Luis Severino- will be healthy come May but will be slow played until his stuff is sharp and crisp. Most post TJS pitchers return around 14 months, but aren’t back to their pre TJS command and power until 18 months, which puts him back to prior in September. I expect him back before then. He’s a legit #2 starter and would be a big boost down the stretch and into the POs

These are the kinds of guys you add when you just need some shoring up of a good team. These aren’t the guys you add to be the foundation of a team. The fact that you subtracted JBJ and Beni and added Cordero, Marwin and Kike doesn’t mean you improved because you brought in 3 guys. I’m wondering if the last two are pump and dumps and Bloom legitimately thinks Cordero has a shot at being anything but a Bo Jackson lite

Turns out he can’t hit when he doesn’t know what’s coming

Winckowski is interesting. Turned 21 on his arrival to High A in 2019 and did well. Not a lot of K's, good walk rate, good HR rate, good walk rate. He's a sinker slider guy and throws mid 90s. If I were the sox, someone who can throw this hard, I would move him back to 4 seamer and see the K's rise

No word on return

With the team likely done with additions (save a possible reunion with Gardner on the cheap), it’s time to start the season thread. Yanks made it to the ALDS and lost a thriller to the eventual AL champion Rays mostly because their owner and GM got cute and burned two starters in a day for game 2, a game we should have won. Either way, a new year is upon us and time to look at the lineup, rotation, and pen Lineup C- Sanchez and Higashioka- Sanchez was horrible last year. He’s never been a good catcher, but his bat made up for it. Last year, his bat was a huge minus, leading to his benching in the POs. He’s already lost the trust of their ace and will likely lose more established pitchers (like Kluber) and turn this into a true time share or even find himself as the backup. My bet is he starts the year as the starter with the Yanks hoping he can find his 30+ HR swing. His upside is massive, but his downside is also massive. Enter Higashioka. Higgy is a solid defender with a good arm and power. He’s actually not that dissimilar from Sanchez offensively, although he doesn’t have the talent to reach Sanchez’ ceiling. Higashioka will be the opening day starter as the personal C for Cole, but I do expect him to catch only about 40% of the games at best early on. He has turned into a very important player on this team, and could ultimately be the full time starter if Gary proves 2020 wasn’t an aberration. 1B- Voit and Ford- Luke Voit took his 2018 hot finish and 2019 hot start and put together a massive 2020 shortened season as the AL HR champ. He’s got power to spare and should be a 40HR type player in 21 if he can stay healthy. Ford, OTOH, took a step back last year in limited duty. With the Yanks pretty RHed, I do expect to see him find a spot on the bench and rotate into the lineup as an injury replacement. 2B- Lemahieu is back. Best pure hitter in the AL is back atop the lineup ready to tear apart the opposing team’s pitcher. SS- Torres had a rough shortened season, but at his age and with his ceiling, there’s a strong likelihood he rebounds. He’s a 30+ HR hitter with the chops to hit for average long term. His conditioning was an issue in 2020 and my bet is he comes into camp in great shape. 3B- Urshela was a find for 2019 and showed even better in 2020. His defense is top notch, he hits for a good average and added power to his repertoire. He’s locked in as the 3b. Utility- Wade, Estrada, and Andujar- Wade has proven to have a solid glove and good speed, but hasn’t translated his minor league numbers into any sort of consistent offensive production. Estrada has a good glove, less mobility than Wade and likewise hasn’t translated his numbers in the minors into production as a big leaguer. Andujar was second in ROY voting in 18 then tore his labrum and struggled to find consistent ABs in NY last year. His issues aren’t offense, it’s his defense that’s the issue as he’s backing up 1B, 3B, DH, and LF. LF- Frazier. The kid’s time has finally come. He mashed last year and showed very well defensively in the OF last year as a RFer (although very poorly in limited innings as a LFer). He’s pegged as the Yanks full time LFer and should finally have no hindrance to 500ABs. CF- Aaron Hicks- weird year offensively. BA was down, power was down, walk rate was a career high and his contact rate was way up with a really low BABIP. There is always the health concern, but he stayed healthy last year. And the other concern worth watching is the defense. Traditionally a plus defender, he was near 0 in UZR/150 in 2019 and plummeted to -11 in 2020. Hard to know if that’s just sample size or if he is starting to lose a step. In YS, CF defense is really important, so stay tuned RF- Aaron Judge. Monster offensively. Great D. Cannon for an arm. Can’t stay healthy. They’re taking a different approach this offseason with less weights and more Yoga/stretching/flexibility. If he can avoid the IL, he should put up an enormous year UTIL OF- Tauchman had a weird 2020. His minor league numbers pointed to an offensive monster but he never got the chance in Colorado. In 19, he puts up a 2.4 WAR in a half season’s worth of games and mashes 13 bombs. In 20, he hit no homers and barely slugged .300. His defense also regressed. Hard to say which player he is, but if 2020 Tauchman is who he is going forward, he might as well be cut. If he can return to 19 Tauchman, then he’d be a hell of an asset for the Yanks DH. Stanton is a more injury prone Judge. Has the offensive potential to be an MVP. Has the body of a regular on the IL. They’re doing the same offseason regimen to avoid soft tissue injuries as they’re doing with Judge. If he can stay healthy, he will have a humongous year, but that’s a big IF My expected lineup 1. Lemahieu 2B 2. Judge RF 3. Hicks CF 4. Voit 1B 5. Stanton DH 6. Torres SS 7. Urshela 3b 8. Sanchez C 9. Frazier LF

Sawamura sounds interesting for sure. I do share the questions of others here. Some guys with high ceilings are signing for peanuts. Kinda perplexed as to why the Sox aren’t in on them

Eovaldi will miss time with an injury. Take it from a guy who frustratingly watched him on his own team. It’s just Nate being Nate. ERod is a total mystery right now. His conditioning will be a tough thing to gauge. He was essentially relegated to bed rest for months. I think Richards has the best chance to stay healthy. If you follow his injuries, he’s not really a guy with a lot of muscle pulls or back issues. He ruptured his patella tendon on a freak play and then refused TJS for a torn UCL and essentially burned 3 years to recover instead of 1.5. He also put in a full 2020 (what was allowed anyway) and showed high velo. He’s also a guy who’s anchored a rotation before

Well, mlb.com just updated their rotation ratings and had the Yanks 4th in all of baseball. So an unbiased publication seems to think our rotation is pretty damn good. Anyone coming after the lineup is just out of their mind. The pen is still dominant and with a lot of young arms reaching the bigs, should be deep as can be. Yanks are a shoe in for the division title IMO. And I don’t usually post that, but they are a shoe in for the division title. They’re top 5 in lineup, rotation and pen in all of baseball

The Yanks have a far, far better team. I’ve acknowledged the injury issues, but their offense is dynamite and that pen is dynamic. The rotation is led by one of the best in all of baseball. I can definitely foresee some rough patches, but the Yanks will be the division champs and I think you all know it

The Sox were the fourth worst team in baseball last year. They get ERod back, albeit unknown in his capacity. You get Richards, who was an excellent add, IMO, more for a mid season pump and dump than actual top level production in Boston. The pen has seen no top level improvement beyond adding Ottavino. Sale is coming to the rescue after the battle is over. You’ve added Hernandez yet lost Bradley, which is a considerable downgrade overall. There are so many variables here that if every one of them went right, you could be at or near .500. If half of less than half of them go right, then you’re in the top 10 in the draft again. The Sox are dealing with two issues. Their roster isn’t good and their division is the toughest division in baseball.

You do know this is the realistic thread, right? This isn’t the puppy dog, fairy tales and unicorn fart thread. The players rejected expanded playoffs and the season should move ahead as it was in 2019. There will be 3 division winners (not the Sox). There are two other teams aside from the division winner that are head and shoulders better than the Sox. Then you’ve got the A’s and Astros in the West, where one of the teams will win the division and the other will be better than the Sox. In the central, the Guardians still have the pitching to be dangerous as a WC with the CWS and Twins as in window teams with one of them likely to win the division. You’re buried and likely to be well below .500

He re-signed with DET

No, they’ll retroactively assign the difference in AAV and add it to the last year. Nice new wrinkle from the last CBA. So his year 1 will cost $34 mil vs the AAV but will actually pay him $40 mil. His year 2 will cost $34 mil to AAV but will pay him $45. If he opts out after year two, his $34 mil cap hit would add the $6 mil from year 1 and the $11 mil from year two above the $34 mil AAV. His cap hit would actually be $51 mil

Playoffs? You’ll struggle to be .500 as currently constituted

Sale not til ASB, this team is dead in the water

I have been on record as saying I don’t think he will and I stick with it with him wearing a different jersey. Very, very few guys his size age well. Maybe he’s the exception, but the rule is that these smaller guys do not last long

Bauer to the Mets

Mets would be pretty dirty too DeGrom Bauer Stroman Carrasco Peterson With Syndrrgaard coming back mid season

Sounds like it’s down to Mets and Dodgers. Not entirely sure why the Yanks haven’t jumped in here. Most recent reported offer was 4 yrs $120+ mil with a series of opt outs. If the Dodgers get him, it could be repeat city here. Kershaw Bauer Buehler May Price Ferguson Urias Gonsolin That’s entirely ridiculous.

Ottavino is getting $8.2 mil from the Sox and the Sox got a prospect

I’ve been pretty consistent on Whitlock. I think I said his ceiling is a Ramiro Mendoza type reliever/spot starter who would be a good bet to give multiple innings