jacksonianmarch

Imperial, it never seems to go that way, though. A college pitcher has less to bargain with than a high school player, so if everything stays the same in the rankings, I bet the college guys get taken a bit above where they are ranked and the HS guys get taken a bit below for signability concerns. BTW, there is a small rumor that Bryce Harper may fall down the draft boards due to significant signability concerns. That pick at #20 could be very, very good.

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions. He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition. He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets. He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway. Remember the predictions from last yr? Brad Penny will be the best #5 pitcher in the American League. Well, he became the sox #3 starter and by the end, he was miserable And John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL in September. That went over well too. He did say a few things I agree with. He did say that the Red Sox are the second best team in the AL. I agree with him there. Then went on to say that they are the second best team in baseball. I think they are in a dead heat with the Phils on that one, but an argument can be made.

Its a smart low risk signing since it is looking more and more likely that Damon isnt coming back. Hence, Jamie Hoffman figures to get quite a few ABs as the righty portion of a platoon and if he doesnt cut it, having a few guys in the queue couldnt hurt. The Ring signing is another depth move that could impact the major leagues. With Dunn and Coke gone, that really only leaves Marte in the bullpen. Now, we have guys like Wilkin de la Rosa and Jeremy Bleich in the upper levels who could be the second lefty in the pen, but Ring is more suited to being a seldom used lefty specialist. After the recent deals, I actually think Ring could be a possibility out of Spring Training to crack the big club.

Also, if the kid is really the good and is ranked that high, chances are, he'll get picked pretty early

You are a moron, as per usual.

Shoulder fatigue in two out of his three seasons in the majors is not a cause for concern for you at all? Not one bit?

I didnt mean to infer that it was the same. The dropoff is something that most people arent talking about. I am talking strictly offense here.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/mariners/2009393684_marinotes28.html?syndication=rss Hey, you're right. I forgot about that. Brings up a second question though. If he had 2 surgeries on that shoulder for bone spurs in a 9 month span, should there be a worry about recurrence of injury?

http://www.baseballdailydigest.com/2010/01/12/pacific-perspectives-dice-k-fesses-up-about-injuries/ This is a much better article, IMO, that also gives a little pacific insight into disease.

Do they teach reading comp in the Dominican? The groin injury that he hid led to the shoulder injury that cost him most of 2009. IE, he had a shoulder injury AND a groin injury. Then again, I shouldnt expect much from our Dominican compadre.

Beltre from 2008 wasnt as good as Lowell from 2009. Also, Beltre was hurt in 2009 and we dont know if that shoulder is gonna be a chronic issue. It obviously sapped his power and it wasnt fixed. I dont think Beltre's yr was a down yr just by chance. He's better than those numbers. I think it was due to injury. It remains to be seen if he rehabbed through it or if it is still lingering

So he was hurt. And chalk one up for Jackson again...

show me where I made anything up in the above post.

Jason Bay was part of that lineup. But he was their best power threat. You dont improve in that category by removing your best power threat and replacing him with an equally K prone hitter with significantly worse skills. You guys get bent out of shape when I show you the problems with the roster. The fact is, you are putting an awfully lot of pressure on your pitching staff. And I bet they can handle it to a tune of 90-95 wins and a wild card berth. But to sit there and say they are better without even acknowledging the fact that their offense just took a walk off a cliff is blind. Very blind. Yes, you get your full season of Victor, but that doesnt mean he plays a full season at catcher. Tito had him playing 1B or DH 40% of the time last yr. Tek is still around, so that's probably going to be a consistent theme, as long as Victor remains healthy. So 40% of the time, you are talking about Victor replacing Youkilis, Papi, or Beltre (with Youk moving to 3b) in the lineup, making the offensive improvement a bit less potent. And, the sox catchers last yr hit to a tune of .750OPS. That isnt actually that bad (9th in baseball). With VMart catching 60% of the games and Tek catching the other 40%, you can probably expect that number to go up, but not by that much. I predicted (based on ratio of last yr's OPSs) that the 2010 catching OPS for the sox would be .789. A 39 point upgrade. But the dropoffs at 3b and LF are massive. Lowell was a consistent Fenway force who had a .811OPS last yr. Bay was the sox biggest power threat with a .921OPS, and team highs in HR (36) and RBI (119). The dropoff from Bay to Cameron includes 17 points in BA, 11 homers, 25 runs scored, 49RBI, 19 walks, 6 stolen bases, and 127 points of OPS. Now there are those who think Cameron can improve on those numbers in Fenway, which is totally possible. But the guy is also 37 yrs old meaning that he could just fall off a cliff as well. I am sorry, but the defense does not make up for 127 points of OPS especially with the age issue creeping in. The Lowell to Beltre dropoff is interesting to look at, but at least he has a higher likelihood of being made up if Beltre stays healthy. Now, I'll write off the testicle injury, that's a freak accident. But what about the shoulder injury in June? Is he recovered from that? Is that why Beltre was absolutely abysmal offensively in 2009? Or was it just a bad yr? Who knows. The 2009 dropoff was dramatic. For a fan base claiming health at 3b, Lowell actually played more games in 2009 than Beltre did. But whats kinda eery is that they both had almost exactly the same amount of at bats. In those ABs, Lowell hit 9 more homers, had 31 more RBIs, walked 12 more times, and had an OPS that was 128 points higher. Now, if you go by his 2008 season, the OPS difference is only 27 points in favor of Lowell and the move to Fenway should make up the difference. But one needs to ask the question, is he healthy? Was 2009 a fluke? And will he rebound to his pre-2009 totals? All valid concerns especially with the spectre of lingering injury around his head, as you know, shoulder injuries are never good things, especially if they sap hitters of their power or pitchers of their velocity. The Scutaro addition is a definite offensive improvement. But by how much? The sox SS's had a .660OPS in 2009, which was one of the worst in the majors. Scutaro, had a career yr with his .788OPS. But, looking at his numbers, I doubt he maintains it. He's 34 yrs old, so we arent talking about a prospect that should get better as his career moves on. But he has played 6 seasons of 100 or more games in his career. In those 6 seasons, he's cracked a .700OPS 3 times. That means, 3 seasons were below .700. The last time he did that was in 2008 (.697OPS). Lets say he replicates that. The offensive difference will be a 37 point OPS change. You go from abysmal to awful. Then you have to look at the 800lb elephant in the room. With Bay gone, there is a TON more pressure on David Ortiz. Ortiz slots into the #5 spot in the lineup behind Youkilis. He had a tale of two halves. Good second half. Absolutely miserable first half. At his age, with his knees and wrists, his weight, and his recent history, should anyone expect him to rebound? Or was the end of 2009 the final salvo in his short but brilliant career? If Papi doesnt come back to the 30HR 100RBI plateau like he rallied to do at the end of 2009 then this middle of the order is mush. I will never put anything past Ortiz since he murdered us in the middle of last decade, but I highly doubt he's better than 2009 and will likely be worse. The other question is Drew's health. He's getting older and he was surprising durable last yr (137 games). But if he is out for an extended period of time, you get to go with abysmal defense in Hermida and a much worse hitter. Yes, your defense is improved. Beltre is much better defensively than Lowell. Ellsbury in LF will be much better than Bay. Cameron in CF should be better than Ellsbury in UZR, although he is getting to an age where the wheels will slow and I am not sure that Ells was actually THAT bad. Scutaro is a downgrade over AGon, though, which is kinda funny since SS is probably the most important defensive position but the downgrade at that position gets overlooked. Plus, the defense at catcher with Victor there remains abysmal. I think defense is important when you have pitchers who absolutely rely on it. But with power pitchers and with only one true GB pitcher (Lackey), I dont think it's going to have as much of an effect as you think it will. Especially in LF at Fenway, where anything routine is caught and anything non-routine is over or off the wall. All of this above should kinda grant some levity to the sox offensive and defensive situation. The offense is worse just on face value and has the potential to be much worse depending on how Beltre rebounds and how Papi and Drew play (or don't play in Drew's case) for 2010. That puts a lot more pressure on the sox staff. One that has Beckett, Lester and Lackey headlining and probably up to task. One of the reasons why I think the sox are the odds on WC favorite and should be a shoe in for the playoffs. But if any of those three go down for an extended period of time (like Lackey last yr or Beckett at the end of both 2008 and 2009) then they are done. The losses of this offseason left the sox a bit less balanced between offense and pitching requiring the pitching to pick up the slack.

This just cements your legacy here. Troll, nothing else.

I already went over the Varitek and Vmart thing. Expect Tek to start 60 games or so since I bet VMart starts only about 100 games at catcher provided he's healthy

Bay hit 9 more homers and had 25 more RBI's, The SLG was close (Youk led by 9 points) but all of that and more was based on the BA difference. Bay led the team with a .270 IsoPower to Youk's .238. Bay was the sox best power threat. Youk is the better offensive player, but Bay is the bigger power threat

I never claimed that OBP wasnt a valid stat. Its all about where you are in the lineup. In the #2 hole, where Johnson would be hitting if Damon doesnt come back, OBP is more important than slugging. Lower in the order, driving in runs is more important, so I'd say that SLG approaches OBP in importance.

BTW, if Damon resigns, how sick would that lineup be? 1. Jeter SS 2. Damon LF 3. Teixeira 1B 4. Rodriguez 3B 5. Johnson DH 6. Posada C 7. Granderson CF 8. Swisher RF 9. Cano 2B

It is ironic that you are doing exactly what you accuse me of doing in your post.

That bit of "research" is pretty biased too. The only significant difference is with Beltre and that's due to his ridiculous home field throughout his career. The point stands, though. The sox are built for Fenway. Lefties who hit the other way well and righties who pull the ball constantly. Take that bit on the road, and they arent as successful. You take away your biggest power threat and dont replace that, then you should regress. It isnt rocket science.

Sounds like a 1yr 6 mil likelihood without an option or a second yr. I think Boras is hoping that Damon can prove he can hit outside of the Bronx. But I agree with Buster. Who else is looking for a corner OFer with a dead pull stroke and diminishing defensive returns? Outside of NY, Damon is an average to slightly above average player (.795OPS). In YS, he is an all-star offensive player (.915). That split and his age are the two reasons why he hasnt been a big draw this offseason. To the Yankees, though, he'd be worth every penny.

Regardless, remember the posts around the time you tucked tail. They were of relief because your act is offensive. It's okay to have a differing opinion, but to blatantly call out anyone who doesnt agree with you and then start a fight is ridiculous. It's your calling card. You'll be gone soon enough. The mods were happy when you were gone and you have come back and pulled the same s***. By midseason, you'll be banned. I was right with Dutch, I was right with Gom, and I'll be right with you.