jacksonianmarch

actually plump, since you and Imp have been posting here, they've all gone away. I hope they come back when the season starts.

I absolutely love this kid and wanted him from day 1 of the draft. He was slotted to be a supplemental 1st rounder due to his somewhat funky mechanics, but he was expected to get 1st round money, so he slipped. But an 18 yr old with an advanced feel for his fastball and curveball and plus potential of a change with the ability to throw 98mph is ridiculous. I have no idea why we didnt scoop him up. If he stays healthy, he's gonna be a dominant ace

Any chance we can get back to the posters who were actually good. What happened to this site? a700, good to see you back.

Lowell and Ortiz will be sharing ABs IMO if he stays. But with Beltre being a major ?? and Drew being an injury liability, there is a very real chance that Cameron ends up batting in the 6 hole for a good part of the yr. As a #8 hitter, he's fine. #6 hole though....

the problem is that a lot of the level headed posters on this site have diminished their posting and we have the new tainted blood posting. Over time, some will calm down into good posters, some will get bored, and others banned. Its the way things are

Wait, you are pulling stuff from game threads? That's reactionary for the most part. The truth is, I would have loved to have Cameron as our #9 hitter in the lineup, since that's all he would need to be for us. Right now, he is much more productive than Gardner will be. The difference is how you use him. There is an outside chance that he could end up in the middle third of your order this yr. That is not a good use of his talents. But in the 9 hole patrolling CF or LF in YS, that would be money

Enjoy work, tying up clients seems to be a forte of yours. Must suck to be a male escort

I'll take a guy's perspective who was more recently an active scout, ie last season, over a guy who has been out of the business for awhile and is generally recognized as a joke in his field. Plus, Piliere was a scout for the Rangers, meaning he actively scouted guys on both of our teams for potential deals.

like two peas in a moron pod

He's big and he throws absolute smoke. There were reports that he was 19 back in July, but from the sounds of it, he was only found to be a yr older than his stated age. At 17, he is quite a prospect. NY had a big budget coming into this INTL season, and the rumor was that they were gonna get Sanchez and Depaula. Now that he's back on the market, we'll have to see if that comes to fruition

I'd go by this list instead of KLaw. KLaw is a joke. Frankie Piliere is an actual scout who has been scouting for the past 3 seasons. http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/25/the-top-100-prospects-of-2010-1-25/ Notables #5- Jesus Montero- Yankees #24- Casey Kelly- Red Sox #39- Ryan Westmoreland- Red Sox #41- Manuel Banuelos- Yankees #45- Austin Romine- Yankees #65- Lars Anderson- Red Sox #76- Zach McAllister- Yankees #95- Ryan Kalish- Red Sox

I think a lot of you guys are really blowing over the possibility that the offense takes a nose-dive here. You lose a guy like Bay, who was your biggest power threat and was your second best hitter by far and add in a 38 yr old CFer and a 3B who is coming off an injury plagued season that was absolutely and totally putrid. Here's the lineup I think Theo puts out there 1. Ellsbury CF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Martinez C 4. Youkilis 1B 5. Ortiz DH 6. Beltre 3B 7. Drew RF 8. Cameron CF 9. Scutaro SS I like your top 4, but your #3 hitter really isnt a great #3 in terms of OPS Ellsbury-Pedroia-VMart-Youkilis is still solid, even with VMart being a mid .800s OPS guy in a spot where a team like the sox should have a .900+ guy Papi-Beltre in the 5-6 hole could be huge or could be a massive, gaping hole. You are expecting Papi to play above his prior season's performance where he looked done for half a season and then looked solid the rest of the way. And you have Beltre who did play 111 games last season and only mustered 8 homers and a sub .700OPS. These guys are gonna be the crux of the lineup IMO. And there is a very good chance that they will stumble Drew-Cameron-Scutaro. Drew will do his OBP thing and be fine assuming he stays healthy, which is a very big concern. Cameron is a very good #8 hitter. Scutaro is a good #9 if he continues to his to the .780OPS from last yr, his career high. But if he reverts to the sub .700 guy he has been for half his career, then he could be a total offensive liability. I like the sox depth of their lineup as 1-9 is gonna be a tough out (aside from the free swinging Beltre that is). But you have 2 guys in the middle of the order who are massive questionmarks, something that the sox havent seen in years.

How long have you been here? And do you know anything about development? I would say that I was spot on with Joba. He'll be a lights out closer type or if converted to the rotation, would have an inconsistent first season then improve from there. Hughes got hurt, so that hindered his progression a bit, but he certainly played a dominant role on the 2009 championship team. I was right on Aceves and on Robertson. I predicted that Coke would be a useful lefty reliever for us when we didnt trade him for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. There are plenty of guys who come up with hype who miss. Most of the guys who I liked who busted did so due to injury, which really isnt predictable but is pretty prevalent in the prospect game. There are two schools of thought, undersell everyone and then be surprised when they make it. Or put the player out there for all to see with their tools and their weaknesses and make a ceiling and a projection, which I did this yr.

Imperial is doing what he does best, pick a fight with absolutely no thought or substance behind it. Kennedy and Lester were being compared pretty constantly a few yrs back when Lester was topping out at 92mph and was struggling with his command. Lester got stronger, regained his prior velocity and sharpened his location. He also developed that cutter which makes his very tough on righties. Once that got perfected, he was golden. But he made a total transformation from where he was in 2006 and 2007. Kennedy, OTOH, got one chance, in 2008, and sucked then got hurt. But he was drafted in 2006 and made his big league debut in 2007 for a big market team. Do you know how hard that is? He readily dominated minor league hitters at a young age at all levels and just couldnt get over the hump in the bigs. Now, he's on a losing team in the desert where people dont care. I seriously think that he is going to get a lot better going forward. But I was wrong on that initial case. Lester and Kennedy had a lot of similarities and Kennedy was a better bet going forward at the time. Lester took off, Kennedy stalled. Its as simple as that

You do not know what pitching depth is then Imperial. If you are looking for pitching depth at the big league level for 2010, then stop my post after AA. This was the quote... Depth of pitching prospects, not major league pitching depth. Maybe, before you come home from your long days of work restraining people and have to read these posts with tired eyes you should actually read what is being argued.

Lester regained his power and did what a miniscule amount of pitching prospects do (reach their potential) and Horne blew out his shoulder.

Depending on how Gardner does, Golson very well could be the 4th OFer by season's end. Mostly since he can pinch run, and Girardi really liked that luxury in the playoffs. Even though Gardy seemed to get thrown out every time

Really not true at all Imperial, leave that up to people who actually know the system In terms of Vizcaino, he wasnt the best pitching prospect. He was the flashiest. He had the 96mph fastball and the knee buckling slider, but he also had multiple injuries and had a lot of inconsistency in his delivery. Manny Banuelos was and is our best pitching prospect, and it isnt even close. In terms of young big league pitchers, Hughes, Aceves, Joba, and Roberston have all etched out their lives in the major leagues. Mark Melancon will probably latch on at the big league level too with the departures of Dunn and Coke. But at the upper levels, there are a few guys who should be ready to make the leap into the bigs. Zach McAllister was a top 75 prospect this season per AOL's Frankie Piliere. He'll be in AAA this yr. Other guys with big league potential who will be in AAA include Wilkin de la Rosa, Romulo Sanchez, Christian Garcia, and Ivan Nova. All four are on the 40 man roster, and all four would have been snagged in the Rule V draft. In AA, Bleich will take his second crack at AA after failing there status post a callup from a successful A+ stint. David Phelps will move up to AA after absolutely dominating A and A+ levels last season. DJ Mitchell will move up to AA after pitching very well in his first season between A and A+. Ryan Pope has also improved his stock after regaining some velocity, but he's so far down on the depth chart that it wont matter. In A+, we will see a healthy Jairo Heredia, who is a top notch prospect when he isnt hurt. We should also see Adam Warren who absolutely dominated the NYP as well as Manny Banuelos who dominated A ball and had a stint in the futures game. In A ball, we have Jose Ramirez, who turned into a legit prospect with his GCL showing. We will also see a lot of high end college pitchers end up here like Caleb Cotham, Sean Black, Gavin Brooks, and Graham Stoneburner. Then below that, in the development leagues, we have some solid talent. Matt Richardson Nik Turley, and Mikey Obrien figure to hold down the SI rotation with Bryan Mitchell, Mariel Checo and Brett Gerritse holding down the GCL rotation along with Chris Cabrera. Imperial, all of the above guys have their flaws, but we definitely have a long list of players who are in line to contribute at the big league level. For this upcoming yr, we have probably our second best pitching prospect big league ready with the best one probably 2 yrs away. That isnt bad. The sox have a lot of similarities too. Their best arm (Kelly) is probably going to be in either the FSL or the Eastern League and isnt going to see big league time until 2011 at the earliest, and most likely 2012. They have a 2 guys in AAA who have big league futures in Bowden and Tazawa, although Bowden took a massive step back last season. And it looks like Buch finally got over the big league hump. They did lose a bit of the upside in the middle of that bunch by losing Masterson and Hagadone. I honestly think that the yankees will have the sox in pitching depth from the FSL up, but the brewing pot of young kids they got last yr and the yr before should start coming through the short season leagues by next yr, led by Madison Younginer, who I really wanted.

The A's are quietly becoming a sleeper team in the AL West. Or a major, major bust.

Pena could reach 15 million, especially when you factor in his good defense. But for a team like the sox who already have good D at 1b, there isnt much of a need. There are plenty of players who will perform a tick lower offensively than Pena who'd be much cheaper in the DH role. Hell, the Twins just signed Jim Thome and he put up almost the exact same OPS as Pena

Thing is, Winn isnt much of a platoon mate. His splits over his career have been close to even, but last yr he had the worst L-R split in the game and he's a switch hitter. If Winn ends up on the bench, then the bench isnt too bad since I expect Hoffman to take most of the lefty pitching ABs away from him. Most teams try to get some sort of defensive advantage out of their scrubs, and every single player on the bench is defense minded. Cervelli is probably our best defensive catcher in the entire system. Pena is probably our slickest middle infielder. Winn is a very strong OF defender, and Hoffman was rated our #1 defensive outfielder in the system according to BA. So we at least bring something different to the table when they play. It also allows us to take Swisher out of the game in the late innings so that our OF defense in close games is solid. In terms of Gardner, his rookie season consisted of 120 ABs and multiple late game appearances. Thats like stopping Pedroia after his month of April in his rookie season and saying he sucked. I'd go off last yr since that is more akin to his MiLB production (well, a bit worse) and he actually had consistent playing time. In terms of Winn, he actually hits the ball over the wall. IIRC, 2 of Gardner's homers were inside the parkers. Winn has proven capable of hitting double digit homers in SF, which means he should do it here assuming everything occured in a vacuum. The problem is, how many speed first guys who come off career worst seasons at the age of 35 recover their prowess the following yr. Only Kenny Lofton fits that category, and I dont see Winn fitting the same profile. Overall, if Winn is on the bench, then I like this team. If Winn cracks the starting lineup and performs akin to his most recent season's performance, then we'll be upgrading at the trade deadline. I really, really want to see what Gardner can do over a full season out of the #9 hole while healthy. Cause if he proves to be more of a 4th OFer, then I think we get Crawford after this season. If he proves he can hold his own (.350+OBP) then we might spend that money in other areas, ie Cliff Lee. And with Gardner it is absolutely all about his OBP. I dont care if his BA is .190, if he reaches base 35% of the time, he will be worth his weight in gold out of that #9 spot. Now, I always wondered how you use a SB and a CS to evaluate a player that adds a different dimension to the game like Ells and Gardner. I've always thought you could just add it or subtract it from total bases and calculate a modified SLG, but a double is truly worth more than a single and a SB due to its propensity to drive in runs. Regardless, if you took Gardner's SBs and added them to his total bases last season, his line looks like this... .270/.345/.464. A .799OPS out of a rookie whose last half of the yr sucked due to a broken thumb isnt too bad. Now if you do the same for Ellsbury.... .301/.355/.508. A .863OPS is really nice too.

No, he has actual offensive value in his OBP and his speed. If he gets on base 35% of the time or more, especially out of the #9 hole, then he will be a major pest. He stole 26 bases in half a season, so if he played to the level he was playing at prior to fracturing his thumb, then he could be in the 50-60+SB range. If you look at his pre-ASB split, prior to breaking his thumb, he was actually good. .282/.352/.404. Not bad for a guy with 50-60 SB potential. Winn doesnt have that.

The big question is about the lux tax for 2011. If they stay over the lux tax this season, then they will be penalized by 40% instead of 22% next season. And if they make a run at Mauer, then they will be over that number

And hence why I am panning the decision. If Winn is brought in with the intention of starting, then this is a bad, bad move. Gardner has more upside than Winn does at this stage of his career. Gardner is faster and has a better eye. I think Gardner offers better defense and more BA upside right now. Winn will hit more homers, but I think Gardner's worth will be much higher, hence why I think he should start