jacksonianmarch

You are removing Bay who had a .921OPS and a .384OBP. You are removing Lowell who had an .811OPS and a .337OBP. You add a player in Beltre who had a .683OPS and a .304OBP. You add a player in Cameron who had a .794OPS and a .342OBP. You can make all the excuses you want to, but both of these guys are massive downgrades. Beltre, when healthy, is good for a .780-.800OPS and a .320OBP. The sox offense was built upon being difficult outs. But you subtract two guys from the middle of your order who worked counts and add two guys who arent tough outs. This offense became less dangerous and is being sold to the pink hats as a defensive upgrade.

I am just playing your game Imperial.

So he wont cost too much, but he sucks. He did OPS under .700 last yr.

Its dead. Lowell is still in Boston

This is another hope and a prayer signing. He has all the tools, but he sucked (compared to his 2004) since he got to Seattle. I understand the stadium argument, but does that account for the drop in everything from elite level to average to below average level? It doesnt. He isnt the same player he was in 2004. But, if he can play good D, stay on the field for 140 games and put up an .800OPS he'll be useful. Regardless, this offense has taken another hit from Lowell to Beltre. The sox lineup doesnt scare me at all.

How bout when he was 35? I am fine with using his age 37 season, because I dont see him playing over 120 game again. But trying to use his 2008 when he had a shoulder injury that required surgery is just disingenuous.

Its funny that you use "the last 2 yrs" for Posada since 2008 was really the only time he actually missed time, and it was a surgical issue that was fixed. He played 137 or more games for 8 consecutive years. Last yr, he missed 3 weeks and was rested something fierce towards the end of the season as well, which I also expect to happen again in 2010. But to use the last 2 yrs when his track record shows he's durable is just stupid. It's okay to be biased as long as you have a legitimate point. But dumb and biased is no way to live your life.

http://www.overthemonster.com/2009/12/22/1212797/lets-talk-about-luxury-tax

The Braves got robbed. Feliz looks like he's gonna be either a top flight starter or closer and Andrus looked good in yr 1

Regardless, the rumor mill for next yr seems to center on the sox and yankees spending big. I can tell you right now that there is a strong likelihood that the sox spend more than is coming off their payroll next yr. Especially is NY decides to pass on Mauer and the sox go for the 20 mil AAV pricetag

No, my initial statement said the top and one of the top. I thought Joba was second. Now that you corrected me, it cements my point even further

You really think they deal Papelbon away?

Solid work not answering the question. Mostly because I am right. The sox may be shedding 50 million in payroll, but they are clearing out their #2 spot in the rotation, their DH, their 3B, and their catcher's position. And, there arent any internal candidates waiting to take the reins at either position

Sorry I didn't spell it out for you. Over the past 3 seasons, we have had the best MiLB pitching prospect twice and the best hitting prospect once.

Dipre, that's what I meant. I did not infer that he's still the best pitching prospect, he isnt even a prospect anymore. I actually didnt know Joba was the highest rated, I thought he was second.

Delgado just had hip surgery. You really want to go after another guy who is coming off hip surgery?

Absolutely. But over the past few seasons we have had the best pitching prospect (Hughes), one of the best in Chamberlain and the best hitter.

You are a teacher and you cannot spell imbecile? Maybe you should quit your job and join Gom's taxi force.

The sox do have some players coming off the books, but it isnt like they're gonna stay under the cap. Look at this... Victor Martinez- 7 million. This frees up the catcher spot. Even if they maintain status quo and resign Victor, they are looking at 3-5 million more in AAV to keep him. Then there's the possibility that they sign Mauer, and that might be a 13 million or more AAV increase from this spot. Jason Varitek- 3 million. This money is likely dead weight. But it might not be. If they sign Mauer, then they probably go with a backup who is cheap, but if they resign Martinez, then they might need to spend a couple mil to have a quality backup since Martinez is on the wrong side of thirty. Julio Lugo- 9 million. This is truly dead weight and will be off the books. Mike Lowell- 12 million. This really is a question anyways since Lowell may be gone and Beltre may be coming in. David Ortiz- 12 million. He does have an option and depending on his season, they might pick it up. But I do find that hard to believe. Josh Beckett- 10 million. This opens up the #2 spot in the rotation and the sox are said to be actively trying to resign him. That's a total of.... 53 million dollars. And right now, the sox are set at 168 million, which is 10 million below the 2011 predicted cap of 178 million. But, lets look at the holes opened with such a deal. Catcher spot Backup catcher spot Third base Designated hitter #2 starter Lets say that the sox resign Victor Martinez for an AAV of $12 million. That seems pretty reasonable. Then they sign a Jose Molina clone for 2 yrs and 4 million total. Between Varitek and Martinez and the new backup catcher, the overall cost is $14 million AAV. Then, lets say the sox sign Beltre this offseason for $9 million AAV. Lets say the sox renegotiate with Papi since he is such a Boston staple and get him on the cheap at $8 million for 2011. Lets say the sox pony up the big bucks and re-sign Beckett to a deal surpassing Lackey's. Lets say 5yrs 90 million. That brings the total AAV to $51 million, which is about $12 million below the projected cap. Then consider arbitration increases to Jacoby Ellsbury, Ramon Ramirez, Hideki Okajima, and the possibility that Buchholz qualifies as a super 2. You might be talking about $10 million or so right there. So, even if the sox do nothing but stay internal aside from Beltre, you are talking about being right on the borderline. If they go out and sign Mauer, which they very well might do, then all of this goes out the window. Also, if they decide to pass on Mauer, but trade for Adrian Gonzalez, then extend him, the AAV jumps astronomically. I really dont see the sox staying status quo, though. I see them adding a middle of the order bat by 2011.

At some point, you need to look at the writing on the wall. He's got a special bat, maybe a once in a generation home grown bat. (I am not saying he's gonna be a Pujols, but how often does a team that picks late in mostly all drafts get a player that is considered the best offensive player in the minors?). And he really plays a below average catcher and even if he works his tail off, he doesnt project to be anything but average behind the plate. And, his stats show that his offense suffers behind the dish. Why put him at that position when the catcher's position also shortens players careers? Doesnt make sense. Then throw in the fact that NY has a ton of true blue chip depth at the catcher spot and it really doesnt make sense.

I think Girardi loved the idea of a 2 lefty pen. The problem was that Coke couldnt get lefties out towards the end of the yr. Logan has shown an above average tendency to get lefties out over the past couple seasons, but he flat out sucks vs righties. So, I think he has the lead right now. I also dont rule out a signing. But I think that their signings would only impact Jamie Hoffman or Logan. Either another lefty or a right handed hitting OFer. Nothing significant. Unless they were to get some sort of dynamic player, I'd be fine with the roster as is. That being said, outside of the infield and utility spots, our upper levels are kinda thin on outfielders or power hitters. I'd try to add a few AAAA guys capable of swinging the lumber. Maybe Shelley wouldnt mind coming back?

Edwar? Really? I think the Edwar ship has sailed. He had a really good 2007, but he lost control of that changeup and ever since has just plunged down the depth charts. Even if he regains his 2006 level of minor league dominance, I dont think he has a chance in hell of being a big leaguer in 2010.

LaRoche has said that he wants 3 yrs at 10+ mil AAV. He isnt getting that, but that is exactly what Beltre is asking for. Plus, you had LaRoche and dealt him for Kotchman. There has to be a reason. Theo obviously likes Kotchman better, so why would he now go out and sign LaRoche to big money to supplant the guy he traded him for? It doesnt make sense. Plus, I have stated the financial predicament that a signing of this magnitude creates. Either of these guys needs to be worth not only their contract, but the luxury tax implications that come with their signing. Adding LaRoche would add tax on his contract plsu an additional 17.5% tax on the 2011 budget and a 10% lux tax increase for 2012. You make that exception for a player of Adrian Gonzalez' magnitude, but do you really do it for LaRoche?

I think Gaudin beats out Mitre and Mitre gets dealt