Rays-Sox pitching matchups (and more)
Posted by Chad Finn, Globe Staff September 1, 2009 11:59 AM
When September ends, the Red Sox may look back at the series that begins tonight in Tampa as the one that swung their year. There is still a month left in the season, so maybe the turning point in their playoff pursuit won't come for weeks. But the opportunity --and the danger -- in this series is huge.
The Sox lead the Rays by five games in the wild card race, and a decisive outcome for either team in the series could have a significant impact on the playoff chase. Should the Sox take, say, two of three, Tampa, which has never really hit its stride this season, would be six games back and essentially out of the playoff picture. And with a sweep, they can create a chasm between themselves and the rest of the wild card contenders, therefore putting themselves in position to align their pitching for the postseason.
But a Rays sweep -- and they are 5-1 against the Sox at Tropicana Field this season -- might give them the burst of momentum they have been awaiting all season.
The importance of this series -- really, it is a make-or-break matchup for the Rays -- can be found in the pitching matchups, where Tampa has three pitchers who have had success against the Sox set to take the hill, starting with Andy Sonnanstine tonight. But the Red Sox are also set up well for the series, with lefthander Jon Lester getting the ball tonight, followed by Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz.
While the Sox will use their top three pitchers, they also can’t be sure of what they will get from Beckett. The Rays' starters are a combined 20-22 this season, but they have all vexed the Red Sox during the careers. Their career numbers against the Sox, including last year’s American League Championship Series:
Sonnanstine: 3-1, 4.86 ERA
Matt Garza: 7-1, 2.66 ERA
David Price: 2-0, 2.16, one save
At the moment, according to Baseball Prospectus, (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php) the Red Sox have a 76.4 percent chance to win the wild card and a 78.9 percent shot to make the playoffs overall. By Friday morning, the Sox could be eight games clear of the Rays. Or they could be clinging to a two-game lead, at best. September could be a victory lap, or it could be a dogfight, and these next three games will play a key role in determining which one it is.
Here, then, is a closer look at the pitching pairings in this series:
TONIGHT
Lester (10-7, 3.60 ERA) vs. Sonnanstine (6-7, 6.61)
With Josh Beckett's puzzling struggles, Lester has emerged as the Sox' recent ace -- he's unbeaten in his last seven starts and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 appearances. But he has had his troubles with the Rays -- in three starts against Tampa this season, he's 0-2 with an 8.22 ERA. In 15.1 innings, however, he has struck out 21. Lester also struggled against Tampa in the ALCS last year, going 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA and suffering the loss in Game 7. Sonnanstine has a reputation as a Red Sox killer -- he won his lone start against them this season and earned a victory with 7.1 innings of six-hit ball in his only start in the ALCS last year. But in seven career regular-season starts against the Sox, he has a 5.08 ERA, and he struggled mightily this season before being demoted to Durham on June 27. He was recalled to make this start after Scott Kazmir was traded to the Angels on Friday.
TOMORROW
Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.80 ERA) vs. Matt Garza (7-9, 3.95)
Three starts ago, Beckett looked like the leading contender for the AL Cy Young Award. Since then, his ERA has climbed from 3.10 to 3.80 as he was roughed up in succession by the Blue Jays, Yankees, and the Jays again, allowing 20 earned runs in 18.1 innings while allowing a stunning 10 home runs. Beckett has had moderate success against the Rays in his career, going 6-4 with a 3.63 in 13 starts. He will be opposed by Garza, another Ray who seems to save his best performances for his starts against the Sox; Garza is 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA in 10 career starts against Boston in the regular season, and went 2-0 while earning ALCS MVP honors last postseason.
SUNDAY
Clay Buchholz (3-3, 4.38 ERA) vs. David Price (7-6, 4.63)
Well, Buchholz, whom the Sox are counting on to seize the No. 3 starter role, has proven he can master the Blue Jays -- all three of his victories this season have come against the Jays, and he has a 1.35 ERA against Toronto in three starts. He has not pitched against the Rays this season, but in two starts against Tampa in his career, he is 1-1 with a 2.02 ERA in 13.1 innings, striking out 15. Last year, he pitched a complete-game loss at Tropicana Field, allowing three hits and two runs in eight innings. Price, the Rays' prized rookie lefthander who arrived on the scene by blowing away the Sox late in Game 7 of the ALCS, has been outstanding at the Trop in his career, winning six of eight decisions with a 2.92 ERA. Price has made one start against the Sox, earning the win by allowing two runs in six innings in the Rays' 6-4 win at home on Aug. 5.
THREE OTHER QUICK NOTES ABOUT THE RAYS
1. Shortstop Jason Bartlett, regarded for much of his career as an example of "good-field, no-hit," is batting .340 with 12 home runs, which is more than he had in his five-year career entering this season (11).
2. Ben Zobrist, who took over as the full-time second baseman when Akinori Iwamura was lost for the season with a knee injury, has a .948 OPS, which trails only Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis, Miguel Cabrera, and Kendry Morales in the American League.
3. Carlos Pena leads the AL with 38 home runs, six more than the Yankees' Mark Teixeira, who is second. He also lead the AL in strikeouts (155), six more than Seattle's Russell Branyan, who is second.
Adam Kilgore of the Globe staff contributed to this report
