we are not hitting HRs. That is how to score runs in today's game with all these shifts. You can't get enough hits on the ground anymore, so the players are lifting the ball and the advantage goes to the big guys when hitting the ball in the air. The correlation of OBP to run production is no longer as direct in today's game. The importance of the HR is increasing. I don't know where the break even point is but I would be willing to give up 15 percentage points on OBP to be the top HR team.