a700hitter

JAyHAwk, sometimes you just have to give up. Your argument doesn't hold up no matter what kind of numbers you look at. Give it up on this and move on to your usually insightful posts about the issues of the day.

I am not saying to dismiss him. He may have a long and productive career, but to compare him at this stage to the greats of the game has little validity. Compare him to first or secon yera guys in the last couple or three years that's fine, but HOF ers. Sorry, but it doesn't resonate.

I don't have a problem with the comparison spanning a shorter time frame, but not across 40 years when the changes in the game have been huge. Like I said, Yaz and Rose were All Stars by their 3rd years and Yaz was a batting champ. Melky has to step up his game big time this year for him to be compared to those guys.

It suffers because you are comparing a guy that is an average OF --4th OF type player to Hall of Famers. Based on that reasoning, you could compare many average 4th OF types to Hall of Famers. I just don't think such comparisons have much validity, not even enough to wait and see.

For all of your good researched posts and analysis, it is statements like this that make your credibility slip. Comparing players against their contemporaries using stats has a lot of validity although there are certain intangible qualities that don't equate or translate well to stats. Comparing across eras and generations using stats is very unreliable. The game has changed. Middle infieders used to weigh 150-160 lbs 40 years ago. Today many of them are tipping the scales at around 200 lbs and hitting 1 handed HRs. Pitchers don't throw complete games and bullpen specialties are still developing. ...and on and on. Comparing Melky at this point in his career to HOF's like Yaz and Rose among others is ludicrous. I saw those guys come up. Yaz was an icon on Long Island in two sports by time he signed with the Red Sox. His basketball career scoring average record held up for about 40 years. The guy won a batting tite by age 23, his third year in the league. If Melky wins a Batting title this year or in 2009, then a comparison might be valid. By Melky's age, Yaz was already considered a star player in a major leagues that had only 10 teams in each league. Melky is not even considered a star on his own team. Rose was a consistent .300 hitter 200+ hit man from age 24 in an era when the league average was around .250. He was an All Star by age 24 on a team that had Frank Robinson and Vada Pinson in their primes and a young Tony Perez and two 20 game winners.

These guys already have shown something at the major league level, and they are major league ready. I see Ellsbury in the "can't miss." category. Bowden and Masterson might be very good too, but the are at least a couple to three years away from being major contributors, so I won't miss them. By the time they are ready, Santana may have won one or two more Cy Youngs and a Championship or two. I am generally impatient about waiting for prospects when they can get us stars, but Ellsbury and Bucholz have earned their place and they have shown extreme promise at the ML level. I'd still trade one of them but not both.

As between Ellsbury and Bucholz, it will be interesting to see which one the Sox will part with if they close this deal. Based on what I have seen, Ellsbury clearly will be a star. If the Sox are willing to part with him instead of Bucholz, they must have a very, very high ceiling for Bucholz. What I have seen from Bucholz has looked very promising too, but I haven't seen enough to be as sure about him as Ellsbury. Giving up one of them will be hard, but they'd be getting a Cy Young pitcher in return.

Spoken by a guy who recently a prospect.

I think the wins still turn it down unless Kennedy is also included. It's just an offer.

IMO the Twins will trade Santana only if they can rape someone's farm system. They will want either Ellsbury or Bucholz in a package with lester and others at the very least. I don't think they settle for one of the Yankees three pitching prospects. They will not settle for less than 2 of them. If the Yanks and Sox are not willing to strip their farm system, the Twins will make another big push at signing Santana or they will keep him for the year and try to sign him as a FA.

IMO he throws no more than 150 innings if he is on the ML Roster for the entire year.

...and if the A's price for Haren might go up after Santana is off the market, or even worse would be if the A's took Haren off the market after the Yankees get Santana.

I'd be surprised if the Red Sox couldn't top it.

Is there a consensus out there that he has lost some velocity?

While it is fun to speculate about getting Santana, I think the Twins will go the extra mile to sign their franchise pitcher. They have always been built around pitching and defense. They let Tori Hunter walk, and they have reportedly made a substantial $80 million 4 year offer to Santana. I think they are intent upon keeping him.

JayHawk and Example, props to both of you on your knowledge of baseball and stats. Adding Santana to this rotation (and keeping him away from the Yanks) is something that doesn't take a lot of analysis. It is pretty much a no brainer on all levels. Both of you seem to agree about getting him. The only difference of opinion is over what is included in the package. Hopefully, the FO knows best and will not get raped in the process. Me, I'd just start crossing the days off the calendar until opening day, because it would be a kick to see that rotation.

With Dice K and Schilling to back them up in 2008. That would kill a lot of batting averages in opposing lineups.

It doesn't matter to me what the dollar values are of the players'. As a fan, and that's all that I am, I'd like to add a second shut down stopper to the rotation. If Dice K progresses like Beckett did in his second year, then we'd have three shut down type starters. I'd have to believe that would equate to a couple of more championships. Bucholz is a hot prospect, but most hot prospects don't become Santana, and the the one who do take a few years to get there. I'd love to see three studs at the top of the rotation. There would be very very little chance of a prolonged slump. It would also make them the favorites in a short post season series. Also, and probably most importantly, if the Yanks get Santana, the balance of power will shift back towards them for the next few years.

Guys, it's great to be the World Champions, and it is proof that the FO has made more good moves than bad. Does that mean we can't discuss the merits of their past moves? I think that is one of the primary activities on this forum. The Abreu deal was good for the Yanks and a flub by the Sox.

The Yankees and Cashman ate the Red Sox lunch on that one. It was probably the biggest bobble by the FO in the last three years. Abreu was a great pickup for a year to year short term commitment. I'd rather have him than Drew.

Who plays CF ...Hunter or Matthews?

The White Sox can't afford to trade bull pen arms. They need to build their bull pen. That was the weakest part of their 2007 team.