ORS

Yeah, but he's gone the aforementioned scenario.

I'd have Ellsbury hit closer to the bottom of the order until he can show a little more selectiveness and/or and ability to do something with a pitcher's pitch. It's frustrating watching him chase the first pitch on the edge of the zone and hit a weak grounder or IF pop-fly, particularly when he's leading off.

Statisically, there's not a lot to support the magnitude of difference you keep suggesting. I think that is the core of the question, "why the hate", and not actual hate.

No doubt. But consider this... Youkilis moves to 3B, where his offensive contribution by WAR is magnified. He's a safe bet to reproduce, or even better, 7.1 WAR. The new 1B need only replace the 4.2 produced by Youkilis last year, which is no small feat, but getting close with a Derrek Lee or Lance Berkman on a short contract isn't out of this world. The catcher position will be a little more daunting, but also consider the production from the outfield as a unit last year (Drew 2.6, Hall 1.0, McDonald 0.8, Kalish 0.6, Reddick 0.2, Ellsbury -0.2, Cameron -0.3) . It's no large assumption to suggest they will get better aggregate production from that unit even without a big FA acquistion. Just going on the year prior to last year you have this (Drew 4.8, Cameron 4.4, 2.7) and you have the development of Kalish as the 4th OF. While they may not replicate what they got from their catcher, they should easily get if from the OF. Now, just replacing last year's production clearly isn't enough, they did miss the playoffs afterall. But they've also got the continued development of Jed Lowrie, hopefully a full season of Dustin Pedroia, and a reasonable expectation that the starting rotation should be better (overall). Fix the BP, and you've got a contender.

Awful strong prediction. Those guys are good, but their production, or close to it, isn't irreplaceable. And, you can get better in more than one facet of the game.

I think this is what's going to happen. It just makes sense on too many levels, and Youk's value is maximized at 3B.

This is a bit overboard. They could sign neither and still have a successful year, for the following reasons: Jacoby Ellsbury returns as a productive player Mike Cameron returns from injury and produces like he did in '08 Ryan Kalish continues his progression, and performs at the MLB level Josh Beckett is healthy and pitches like he did from '07-'09 John Lackey rebounds David Ortiz experiences no 2-month rough start Jed Lowrie continues his progression, and takes the starting job from Scutaro Counting on just some of those things happening, and only some of them need to happen to make them competitive, is no more risky than bringing an NL late bloomer into the AL East and expecting a smooth transition, or signing a speed guy into his middle 30's. They can still get better in other areas (mainly another corner IF and BP help) without signing those guys and field a good team.

The Rudi vs. Jackson choice was a little more clear cut, IMO. By '77 you were talking about .275/.320/.435 with 111 HR / 21 SB vs. .267/.358/.503 with 281 HR / 171 SB, and this is with the better numbers at a more premium position. Jackson was better, by a good margin, at all facets of the game other than BA, where they were equal. This isn't the case with Werth vs. Crawford. Werth is better in some areas, Crawford is better in others. The decision should come down to factors such as: who's skill set is likely to hold up over the duration of the contract, who's skill set is likely to best take advantage of the home park (yes Werth played in a bandbox, but Fenway is an excellent park for RHH power hitters - see the resurrection of Mike Lowell and Adrian Beltre). I too think there should be some concern about Werth's lack of time being a productive player. I also feel there should be concern about paying Crawford big money over big time when his effectiveness is largely dependent upon the first skill to usually fade, speed. If Crawford's power development can continue, it would mitigate some of that concern.

FTR, Bill James is not high on the kid. The Bill James projections as shown on fangraphs.com are attributed to his name because he has authorized the use of his projection formula to a group that uses it, Baseball Info Solutions. Bill James is consultant for BIS, but he is still an employee of the Boston Red Sox, so his actual opinions are likely proprietary.

On "three". Since you have taken it upon yourself to call into question not only my motives in this thread (the baiting comment), but my role as father to my children (how dare you), without a cross word said by me in your direction, I'd like to know where this is coming from. As for demeaning an opinion different than yours, please. You are certainly on high ground with your routine ridicule of newer statistics that present contrary evaluation of player than what you believe to be their value. Can we drop the phony sanctimony, please?

One, while I was just a kid, I saw Yaz play (on TV). Two, let's drop the assumption about my motive and look at the question I asked again. Show me where I'm baiting you.

Are you talking about in the field? Because, if bat work counts, then Manny was better than all Sox LF other than the Splendid Splinter.

What rule did I break with that post?

You're reaching.

The same people who think last year was just an off year. There are plenty of them, you know this is true. I mean, "He's Jetuh!"

Oh, that's original, pretending you know my demeanor over the internet. Nice one, Gom. Yawn.

Nice try, but it's not an opinion that you engage in the same behavior. I've seen it and been on the other end of it many times. This dog won't hunt, dude.

Define "actual". Point being, that sounds like condescending code for "pink hats", and I think the pink hats for all clubs that have them probably outnumber the the diehards by a large margin, and the executives aren't interested in whether or not you are an "actual" Yankee fan, but just want you engaged and spending money. In other words, to the execs, those "pink hats" are actual fans that represent actual dollars.

Factual. Deal with it.

Fading fast, girl. You suck at this.

Incredibly weak.

Sycophant.