ORS
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Everything posted by ORS
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Thanks, Rios. That was pretty strange.
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I agree, it wouldn't make sense to be anybody else. If it is Kottaras, this a f***ing coup, a coup I tell you. We just traded 5-6 starts to fill the biggest hole in the minors with a prospect worth getting excited about. Although, they owed us after raping us for for Bard/Meredith for Mirabelli.
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Two bad plays by the D allow the tying run to score....again. I like Crisp's balls to the wall aggressiveness in the field, but his decision making is s***. He played a single into a triple earlier. And, he just played a double into a triple. He had a legit shot at the second ball, but he can't track down a ball hit over his head worth a damn, so he missed it.
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The Pads will be easy to root for during the stretch run. Dave, Boom, Cla, Marky Mark, Embree. Lopez sucks major ass.
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That was one hell of a meatball, JT.
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I'll still be here when I'm not working the next day.
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Get this man some Xanax. You need to have a good feeling every day.
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He's cranked out a .840+ OPS at every level other than AAA, and his AAA #'s were with only 64 ABs -- 64. Do you think 64 ABs is a good indicator of performance? s***, that's only 16-18 games. It's a steal because the farm system has no serious catching prospects in the upper minors and Wells is retiring at the end of the year, meaning in one month, they'll get nothing for him.
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But, at the same time, you have to figure Hafner would see better pitches because Ortiz has been so big late in games over the last couple of years. It's all speculative, but I don't tend to put much credence into the "protection" of the player hitting behind someone. Unless they are situationally IBB'ing someone, pitchers are trying to get hitters out. As for the Carmona situation, he didn't get a cookie on 2-0. That ball was pegged low and away, so he was still being careful despite Manny.
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No stat takes that into account because it would be close to impossible to isolate and quantify it.
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I like Win Shares, although, from what I've read, the defensive component is pretty much a sham. It's another good context-free stat. I don't like Clutch at THT. It allows for a walkoff solo HR to negatively impact your clutch score. I think the best context based stat is WPA, although it is far from perfect.
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WPA: fangraphs.com Situation WP Generator: walkoffbalk.com Calculating WPA for any event is easy. Use the Win Probability Generator at walkoffbalk.com to find the probability of the team winning based on situation before the player's AB. Then, adjust the situation to reflect the result of what happen in his AB, and take the difference. It's easier to just look it up at fangraphs because you'd have to go through every PA to calculate it. What does missing the playoffs have to do with anything? The last time I checked, neither of those guys pitch, and that's the reason neither of their teams are going to the postseason. The award is Most Valuable Player. Context can make the same event have different values in terms of the likelihood of winning a game. Seems pretty apparent to me that it's justified to be included in the conversation.
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In vaccum, meaning free from context - or situation, Hafner is having a better year. However, when context is added, meaning what situations the production occurs in, Ortiz is far and away better. VORP - context free Hafner ~76 Ortiz ~60 WPA - Win Probability Added Ortiz 6.9 Hafner 4.2 Ortiz has meant much more to the Sox than Hafner has to the Guardians. EDIT: And, when we are talking about two guys separated by ~.040 OPS, I want the one who's doing it in more crucial situations.
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Yeah, I like Loretta, but Pedroia has nothing left to prove in the minors, and rotting on the bench will slow down his acclimation to the bigs. He's not a SS -- not enough arm for the play in the hole. He's a 2B, and the job should be his next year.
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Don't overlook Dye. He's having a monster year.
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August 29 @ Oakland
ORS replied to Youk Of The Nation's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Sharp outing from Beckett. -
Be fair now, 700. The frequency of you bringing those two up is tantamount to having the dead horse stuffed and placed in the middle of the living room.
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This is a throw-away comment with no evidenciary support. If that's all you've got against BP, then I'll have to assumed that you are just jaded for some reason.
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The Pedro and Damon decisions need to be judged after their contracts have run to completion, IMO. However, right now those two decisions are looking very bad. I don't think it's extreme considering they weren't able to sufficiently replace them with the moves they've made. Would it be nice if 700 moved on? Sure, but his angst isn't exactly misplaced right now.
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There's some validity to that. Papelbon's rate stats are freakish, so a "wait and see" mentality is justified. I'm not arguing that I think he'll keep it up at this rate. However, based on what's happened so far, it's hard to argue against him.
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The stats really aren't that numerous, and this does a good job of proving my point. You don't get what the stats are about. I know you like stats. You like the ones from Stats Inc. because they are the "official" scoring stats. Those are useful, but they are cluttered with noise. Park, league, oppenent, and era all contribute to the environment where the raw stats are compiled. All BP does is filter out the noise to try and get to the true value independent of all those variables. The stats are created by guys who use statistical analysis in their professional lives -- most of the BP writers have day jobs, but they are nuts for baseball.
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700 is right, successful teams don't go to extremes on either end of the spectrum. The most efficient roster construction (for big budget teams) is one of premium homegrown talent with FAs to fill where the farm has failed. I think the ultimate goal of the "100 Million Dollar Farm" is to be able to pick the choice talent from the farm and deal away the rest for more choice talent. The problem is that the cupboard started kind of bare. I think we are witnessing the restocking of the farm, which is why they have been reluctant to deal away youth for quick fixes. The only prospects dealt have been for established young talent (Beckett and Crisp). Early returns are bad on those two, but I think they should be given more time before judgement is passed.
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Oh, I'm sure they will. And, I'm also sure you'll ridicule every one of them without and ounce of understanding of the process.
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BP disagrees. Papelbon leads the league in ARP - Adusted Runs Prvented for relievers - and WXRL - Expected Wins Added for relievers.
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Me either.