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ORS

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Everything posted by ORS

  1. ORS
    His peripheral statistics in his last full season starting are kind of irrelevant now, I think. He was a different pitcher then. He struggled a bit with his FB command, and he really didn't have a plus second pitch at the time. Last year he really refined his command, and he developed a plus splitter. His curve has shown drastic improvement in ST, and his splitter is looking plus plus. I think he's a different animal than what he was two years ago. I think they are sacraficing what could be a really good thing without finding out if it will be. That is shortsighted and irresponsible.
  2. ORS
    Ted, right or wrong isn't the issue. It was a different ownership group. It was a different general manager. Your analogy doesn't reflect that.
  3. ORS
    No, I wouldn't. However, think about your statement. I wouldn't go back to my old boss, but I'd have no qualms returning to that company if management changed and my old boss got the shitcan too. Think.
  4. ORS
    I think the Lugo signing reaction is a bit overboard. I'm not sure how much weight you can put into his LA time because of a couple of factors. One, it's a new league with unfamilar pitchers. Two, he didn't get consistent playing time. I also think it's pretty safe to say that had he remained in the familiar AL East he would have easily swatted out a .800+ OPS. He was at .870+ when he got traded. That doesn't mean I think he'll repeat that level, but I don't think it's unreasonable to expect ~.800, and that's miles better than what we got out of SS the last two years. On top of all that, his contract isn't even that bad. The guy over at SoSH who worked (works?) for the Sox, Eric Van, as a statistical analyst runs a $$/VORP WIN thread every year, and Lugo beat the market significantly, if I recall correctly. He's getting what he's getting because the market went crazy this year.
  5. ORS
    This can't be a serious question.
  6. ORS
    I don't like it, but not for the same reasons. I have little doubt that he's been cleared by the medical staff after going through a strength conditioning program to stabilize his shoulder. Without progress there, they don't risk it. I don't like it because I think he could have been a hell of a starting pitcher. Maybe not immediately, but not too far off. He was starting to show excellent control of the FB, a consistently nasty splitter, and a much improved curve. Given the choice between an elite closer or an elite starter, I take the SP every single time. This is a shortsighted move, and another year closing games may pigeonhole him into a situation where he'll never be a starter. That is a loss, IMO.
  7. ORS
    I don't like it. I mean, it's great for this year, but it's going to be tough to start stretching him out to be a starter at age 27 after two straight years of closing. This feels like a shortsighted move.
  8. ORS
    Gameday Wake will go the 1st 5, then Papelbon the next 4. BP is scheduled to get the day off.
  9. ORS
    You still aren't allowed to play with sharp objects, are you?
  10. ORS
    Isn't that a big no-no for the MLBPA?
  11. ORS
    I heard he did a complete waffle today during the game's broadcast on ESPN. Before the game started he said Dice-K looked like nothing special and he'd be a disappointment. At the end of his outing, he said he'd be the staff ace. The guy is 500% buffoon.
  12. ORS
    To a degree, I agree. However, Varitek can't make the pitcher throw anything. They gameplan before the game. I think the reports about Beckett being told to dump the change and warm up with a band-aid (which gave him less feel for the curve), contributed to him not being confident throwing those pitches. Therefore, he shakes the catcher off and does what he wants.
  13. ORS
    I don't know, Crespo. I saw Josh shaking his head a whole lot last year. It was like clockwork. JB shakes his head, the hitter digs in, here comes the heater, and a souvenir is born.
  14. ORS
    Does Jacko work for Initech? http://www.newgrounds.com/bbs/user_images/pics/1/245000/ngbbs3c48f1755fcfb.jpg
  15. ORS
  16. ORS
    While I'm a proponent of them avoiding Helton's contract, I think the risk is minimal and they should extend him now. First of all, it's only a one year deal, and doing it now shuts the competition out. Second, I'm not that sure that Schilling is in deep regression. He's certainly not the power pitcher he was 5 years ago, but he's also changing his approach. Despite his weight, he works hard at his craft, and I don't have any doubts that he will be able to develop the feel and command for more pitches in his reportoire, like his new change up. Plus, the guy put his career on the line and delivered the prize. I know, I know, they don't want to pay players for their past performance, but I don't think the risk of him tanking is all that great, and, sometimes, you need to make exceptions. If anyone is worthy of an exception, it's Curt.
  17. ORS
  18. ORS

    Fantasy League 1

    ORS replied to ORS's topic in Contests/Prizes

    Wow. I thought Riverside was off the deep end when he took Pedroia in the 3rd round, but this trade might be worse. Gary Mathews Jr. & Roger Clemens for Matt Cain & Ken Griffey Jr. Insanity. I won't vote against it because it's not my place to slow He Hate Me's roll, but damn. I hope he at least offered to use lube.
  19. ORS
    Here's the problem with your analysis, Jacko. It's always surficial. You just looked at Dunn's stats and said to yourself, "It happened in the last year, so that must be it", without looking at the ages or levels. Dunn hit 3 levels, ending at the ML level, and raked at each stop when he was 21. Duncan, after being the AFL player of the year, couldn't handle AAA and had to repeat AA. It wasn't just injury. He couldn't handle the level. So, he'll get a second shot that Dunn didn't need. Adam Dunn is a good ball player, but he has warts. His value is his power and patience. Duncan shows the same warts without the same power. Could he do it? Sure, anything can happen. But calling this guy, given his struggles, the future 1B of the $200M Yankees is complete fanboyism. If he can't crank out a consistent .900+ OPS, which is leaps and bounds above anything he has done thus far, then I'll change my mind. Until then, I think they'll find another option.
  20. ORS
    BP's win projections are based off their baby, PECOTA. PECOTA has it's limits. It trends things without regard to situation, like injury. For example, a healthy Schilling, like he is this year, is going to pitch 200+ IP. PECOTA has him at 172 because of '05. Manny's PA went from 663 to 650 to 558, with the 558 occuring last year when he had a knee problem. Normally, he's a lock for 650+ PA, of course PECOTA sees the trend only and has him at 528 for this year.
  21. ORS
    I figured you'd take the bait there. He was 21 that year. Duncan is 22 this year.
  22. ORS

    Fantasy League 1

    ORS replied to ORS's topic in Contests/Prizes

    I second the motion.
  23. ORS
    His BB and K rates look a lot like this guy, only without the same power. Adam Dunn without the power? I stand by my original point.
  24. ORS
    First base is being kept warm for Duncan? You better hope they've finally made a self-sustaining fusion reactor because there just isn't enough coal and oil for the pace that he's moving through the system. It's actually 49 HRs, and his high OPS above low-A was .840 last year on his second attempt at AA. If he can repeat that at AAA, that gives them someone who's MLE will be about an .800 OPS. I hope and pray you are right about him being the future, because that is mundane for 1B, and horrible for someone who isn't a deft fielder, like Duncan isn't.
  25. ORS
    This year it would improve them. In the future he'd be their dead weight instead of ours. Call it a wash. I think we can drop the "you heard it here first" mumbo jumbo. Everyone knows the Yankees are out there. Everyone knows what their needs are. You aren't cluing anyone in to anything. So, you predicted the Yankees would be after Damon last December? How did you do it? Might as well quit the day job, Kreskin, and use your powers on the lottery. If I'm given the option of a World Series now with a contract that will be a burden in the future, then, sure, I take the championship. But that's not how it works in the real world. Helton improves our chances, but guarantees us nothing, and has substantial risk attached to him. The new revenue sharing has made it so that fewer and fewer elite players are hitting the free agent market. So, when some of them do, and some of them will, Helton's contract could handcuff them from making the best offer to a Santana, Zambrano, or Cabrera.
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