ORS
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Everything posted by ORS
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Excellent point, you really slayed it with that one. One problem, nobody said that. Strawman, FTW.
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I wouldn't call Martin aging. Broken? Sure, based off of his injury .... and possibily in the future too based on how they are using him. However, he's only 28.
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But, would the improvement we've seen have happened if he got stashed in AAA for another year? That didn't work for Texas. I think he may have needed the consistency and continuity of play at the MLB level to gain the improvement he's shown this year (if the improvement is actually real and not just his latest hot streak). In the long run, if the improvement is real, it was probably worth the rough start to the year.
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The end of that contract is going to be brutal.
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The price of the market is what it is (depending on what measure of production you use to determine the values). What's interesting to me is that in may cases, players that you think of as being really overpaid tend to show up as "at value" by fangraphs Salary by WAR statistic. What I find interesting is that it shows just how risky/expensive the FA market is. That said, in the big picture, I think the statistic is flawed (this is something I thought about recently and contradicts what I've said in the past). The $ are figured only compared to people who have hit the FA market, ie it eliminates the value found in young players still in the pre-FA years. That's real value. Everyone has the same chance to produce through the draft and IFA market. Having to go to the FA market is the result of failure to achieve that value, and thus should count against a team for its signings. The $/WAR stat needs to include all players, IMO. It would be more demonstrative of what a players contributions are really worth.
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But he's fast....[/bot]
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No, I didn't calculate them myself. You'll find something useful on just about any of the top 10 hits on google.
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Google: baseball linear weights You get not only approximate numbers for the events that you can use, but you'll also find information about what they mean and how they were determined.
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1/2 with HR is an OPS of 2.500 (.500 OBP/2.000 SLG) 2/2 with 2 2B is an OPS of 3.000 (1.000 OBP/2.000 SLG) If those are the choices, seems pretty simple to me. All the stuff about who is on base is context dependent...variables not controlled by the choices.
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19-6?!? I'm quickly realizing why you get so ticked off when they struggle in game threads. This, combined with your daily individual game predictions (most of them call for something like a 9-2, 10-3 win), suggests you may have very unrealistic expectations.
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Can you support this statistically? Because, I can make a decent case to the contrary. The big difference between Crawford and Pedroia in terms of OBP is their walk rate. Over 162 games, Pedroia walks about 30 more times than Crawford. It just so happens that Crawford steals 30 more bases. Look at the linear weights run values for a BB vs. a SB.... BB: 0.33 SB: 0.30 So, the walk is worth slightly more than the SB. However, that doesn't get the whole issue, because instead of walking, Crawford is actually making outs. Here's the value of an out.... OUT: -0.27 Over a delta 30 in each event, Pedroia's contribution is worth .... 30 * (0.33) = 10 runs Crawfords is worth.... 30 * (0.30 - 0.27) = 1 runs ...which is a 9 run difference over the season, which is about a full win. The speed vs. OBP argument as you presented it (SB vs. OBP) clearly goes the other way.
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Catchers can stop blocking the plate if they don't want to deal with contact.
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Gonzalez just scored from 1st on a double? I thought was impossible, at least that's what I've been told all day.
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It's dumber to move 3 substantially better hitters down in the order to accomodate his speed. This isn't about whether or not Crawford is a top of the order bat, he is. This is about avoiding impact to a bigger asset, the 3/4/5 hitters, in order to maximize the value out of one guy. How do you not see this?
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So hit him 6th, but don't, under any silly set of circumstances, move your best hitters down in the lineup over 100 games just so this guy can steal a handful of more bases and leg out a couple more triples.
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This is not going to happen enough to warrant moving Gonzalez/Youk/Ortiz down in the order over 100 games. It just isn't.
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Oh noes, all caps, he's so serious. Why so serious? You are making something out of nothing.
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No, seriously, how has his "damage" been limited? The benefit of his speed is that he can move into scoring position on a single. However, in your hypothetical where a slow guy doesn't go 1st to 3rd on one of his singles and stops him from taking 2nd with his legs, you are ignoring something very fundamental here. There's still a guy in scoring positon - the big, slow guy he moved to 2B with his single. Where is the limited "damage"? EDIT: When his triples get turned into doubles.....well....then you have runners on 2nd/3rd instead of a runner on 3rd. I think you are missing the forest because of all the trees.
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How has his "damage" been limited the last few games?
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I'll echo a700's post about not changing the 3/4/5. That being the case, two of Ellsbury/Pedroia/Crawford can fill the 1/2 spots. Whoever it is doesn't matter to me. I think it's prudent to stick with Ellsbury/Pedroia because despite Crawford's recent surge, he's not hitting better than JE since he took the leadoff spot, and Pedroia is RH, an excellent #2 hitter with speed on in front of him, and a good bet to put up better offensive numbers by season's end. I don't disagree that when he's going good that Crawford is a top of the order hitter, but so are the other two, and his talents don't warrant moving Gonzalez/Youk/Ortiz down in the order. It's is simple as that. On another note, how nice is it to have this discussion? With Lowrie hitting the way he has, the catchers getting the memo and pulling out of their funk, and Drew still being a grinder who gets on base, this lineup is loaded. So what if Crawford hits 6th, there are worse problems to have. Enjoy it.