My pick of Quentin wasn't who I thought "deserves" it, but rather who will win it. Yes, Pedroia may win the batting title, but Quentin will trump that with the HR title while still hitting for decent average, which is something the writers, who get the votes, have historically favored, as well as an edge in RBI, another big stat for them.
All things considered, the case for Pedroia is strong.
[table]Player|WARP1|VORP|WinShares
Pedroia|8.1|50.8|18
Quentin|7.6|49.5|24
Youkilis|7.6|49.5|24
Morneau|7.7|47.3|27[/table]
Win Shares are not position dependent, thus Pedroia does trail there as his "triple crown" stats don't compare to the others. Win Shares are competent predictor of MVP winners. I think Dustin will fall short, pun intended, but when you consider position, he should be in the discussion.