example1
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Everything posted by example1
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Going on the DL and missing half the season are not part of the same regression analysis. Categorically they are two different definitions. Buchholz (no 't') could go on the 15 day DL FOUR TIMES and still have more IP next season than he did in 2011. In other words, your analysis could be spot on, and they could still combine for more IP without too much difficulty.
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Here's my order of preference, assuming decent Spring Training, and just off the top of my head: Doubront Aceves Wilson Miller Padilla Tazawa Cook Silva Aceves might be the better pitcher, but like you I like him better in the pen as the swing man. This is a franchise that had Jullian Tavarez eating up substantial innings out of the 5 spot a few seasons ago. I see no reason that a young SP like Doubront can't pitch well enough to win 50% of the games with that offense and defense behind him. Of course, I would like it much more if they added a hands-down 5th starter, then everything would fall into place. I just don't think that makes the difference between a 100 win team and a 88 win team.
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What is idiotic is someone reading this post: ...and expecting any response other than "we will see". We have beat this horse to death. Apparently the only appropriate answer for you (which is no surprise) would be either "I agree with everyone else here. There is no way that their top 3 pitches more inning than they did last year" or "I am actually a poster from the future, who has returned in my time traveling machine. In fact, Buchholz's back DID hold up and Beckett continued with his good pitching and to make matters better, Lester won the Cy Young." "We will see" is the same as saying "the results will dictate who is right and who is wrong". Apparently you have a problem with that. Are you trying to pick fights?
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We will see.
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This point, according to Jung, might be the most specious post he's ever seen on this board. Virtually the exact point I made, though you probably made it more clearly.
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Fair enough! Thanks for clarifying that.
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This is an unnecessary diversion. I mistakenly said "three pitchers considered aces" when in my first post I was very careful to say "three former All-Stars". I absolutely agree that none of the three are true #1 pitchers in the mold of CC or Halladay. I would say that on any given night, all three are one step below those, capable of winning games against any true #1 and considered the favorite against most teams' #2 or #3 pitchers. My bad.
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Which other teams have multiple "aces" who have pitched like "aces" consistently? Please provide the list of teams with pitchers who have both a better ceiling and track record... Yankees? CC is an ace. Who is next? We question everything about the Red Sox, but how do the rest of the teams get a pass? Talk about specious. We will see, but your analysis is copmlete conjecture. How does that play out in any of the recent seasons? Which team makes the strong push after the ASB to contend with Boston and TB? The Angels were 3 games back (and that was only due to the Sox absolute freefall) and otherwise the Jays were 9 games back and no other team finished above .500. Perhaps next year a bunch of teams will try a lot harder and not be sellers at the deadline due to the new WC rules, but I don't think that makes a huge difference.
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Another interesting thing to keep an eye on is whether the Yankees are actually good enough to beat good teams.
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How so?
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This is all assuming they are healthy Jacko.
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Are you kidding? First of all, it is absolutely an advantage to have three pitchers considered aces, rather than one ace and three or four less successful starters. Furthermore, in your infinite wisdom, with all due respect, you missed the fact that with two wildcards teams there is not likely to be a race up until the final day of the season a la 2011. If 2011 plays out again then the Sox and Rays aren't starting their best pitchers leading up to the final game. They know a week before that it comes down to one game. Yes, they likely set their rotation up for their best pitcher in the WC game, and a team with multiple top tier starters is better set up in that scenario than a team that starts verlander in the WC game and has Fister in game 2. That's not specious, that's reasonable.
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This should advantage a team like the Red Sox, who will have three former all-star SPs in their front five. No need to start Beckett over Lester or Buchholz if all are pitching to form. The Rangers, Yankees and Tigers are in a different spot, IMO
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It will mean less unless they win that one extra game. Then it will mean essentially the same.
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Perhaps I wasn't as clear as I should have been. It is very hard to ask "where are they in the AL" if you are talking about end of season standings. Yes, they should put a better team on the field than everyone else, but they don't play in the AL Central, or have the luxary of playing the A's and Mariners every few weeks. They have to be the best team they can be in the AL East. The Wild Card matters a ton, of course, but the best they can do is wins the games in front of them. There is a very real possibility that a very good team will not make the playoffs this year.
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