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Good post Jacksonian. I agree that Papelbon is elite, I think everyone else does too. The problem is that he may demand a king's ransom and the Sox aren't likely to pay it. They would much prefer to do a longer, more reasonable deal a la Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis and they would have prefered to start that yesterday, or the day before. Papelbon is clearly taking a risk and in the process he's initially saving the Sox money, but will get his payday at the end if he stays healthy and productive. I won't be one of the people jumping off a cliff if Papelbon leaves BOS for NYY, because I can see that scenario coming years in advance and am prepared for it already. I understand and support the Sox not paying over value for FAs (especially when they offer those FAs lots of money years before they would make it otherwise and offer them some very well paid job security). Until they get completely burned by the strategy of not paying above all other team's FA prices I just won't worry about it. I could also see a team like the Cubs paying a lot of money for a guy like Papelbon if they still haven't won their WS. They have lacked that consistency at the back of their pen, they have the money...

The Red Sox aren't without options if Papelbon leaves. They have a lot of internal options who might be ready by that time and while the Yankees take Papelbon perhaps the Red Sox take Broxton. He's not quite AS good, but he's pretty darn close with comparable stuff. Nobody wants to see that dude in late innings.

There is always a chance that the Yankees will catch the Sox. A 4 game lead at this point is nice, but it isn't insurmountable. The Sox pitching seems to be superior, both SP and RP, but I think the RP is what really, REALLY sets them apart. That 'pen can come in early iln the game and hold just about any team to one or two runs (often less), which means if Tito gets the SP out early enough then the Sox have a chance to win. That's a big deal and is something that this rivalry hasn't seen in quite some time. Ortiz may not be what he once was, but he looks a lot better at the plate and is hitting down in the order. This team has enough pieces that slumps and poor pitching stretches can happen and the team will still play above .500.

Yeah, but he's only got 6.5 years and $145m left on his contract. There is such a short amount of time and such a small commitment left that I'm sure the Yankees don't care. Love it.

He's getting pounded even after he gets first strikes, and on first pitches. After 0-1 (2009) |.347/.380/.600/.980 | After 0-1 (career) | .202/.257/.307/.565| His FB is about 1 mph slower than it has been the past few years, perhaps just enough to make a difference. :dunno: Overall it seems all about how he is approaching his job. He can still put guys away but he just can't get there often enough. For some reason his control is shot relative to the past two seasons, and his only hope is to throw the ball over the plate, rather than actually pitching. As much as most of us wish that they could DL him, I'm thankful that it doesn't appear as if a significant injury is the cause. I don't think Matsuzaka's career is overy by any stretch at the age of 28. He needs to get his head on straight and get back to the place where he was attacking batters from the get-go. The league may have adjusted, looking for those early fat strikes, so he needs to adjust back. Hard to do when you can't focus enough to get a breaking ball over for something close to a strike. Missing by 3 feet just doesn't achieve anything. You can't get bad calls from the ump and you can't set up the batter. Complete waste pitches, and he's throwing too many of them. I think a break in one form or another, or some adjustment to his starting slot could get him what he needs to regain some strength and contribute again later in the year. It is still a long season.

At this point, Dice-K is going to have to be part of the discussion about what to do with him. His contracts limits options and his star-status and salary limit the Sox's options about "disrespecting" him too blatently. At the same time, he has to understand that he isn't helping the team. I don't know him personally (obviously) and know very little about his personality. I'm sure he has an ego, as he should, but I haven't heard that he's not a team guy. Here's the options I could see for him: Dice chooses to take time off and just sit it out (my fourth option) Dice chooses to go to the minor leagues and work on his stuff (my prefered option) Dice demands a trade Sox search for injury problems, evaluate, then rehab stint (my second prefered option) Sox move him to the bullpen Sox demand that he go to AAA, sit him if he refuses (use up roster spot) Sox have him skip a start or two, keep him on the MLB club and have him throw simulated games with coaches. (my third prefered option) Sox continue losing every 5th day Long story short, he's done for the time being in my book. He's had his chances, but he is just throwing s***** and this team is too good and has too many good pitchers knocking on the door to let him suck like this. He has the choice: either make this easy for the club, or be a bitch. I'm hopeful that he will step up like a professional and make this easy. Work out your issues at AAA, take Smoltz's spot and come back (hopefully) for the second half and the playoffs.

Yes, and you would be saying something that everyone in the world knows. As long as he isn't producing at a replacement-level it would be detrimental. But you're more than that. You are a very knowledgable fan who discusses this team A LOT. The more complicated discussion certainly isn't beyond your abilities. Okay, this is more like it. I agree. If Papelbon is willing to take K-Rod money, and see the "going rate" as the "rate that all teams not called the Yankees are willing to pay for a player" or the "rate that is relative to the overall earning that the team is likely to get by retaining his services", then we agree. We agree that they could afford it. Whether they see him as worth that amount is a different discussion.

I don't disagree. I think a "lock down" closer is a great thing to have. The question is, at what expense? If they offer him 17m a year and he blows out his arm in year two and can't top 91mph thereafter, they would have screwed themselves. They won't put themselves into a situation where that is the case. Pedroia is signed to a 6 year deal. I don't think they are interested in destroying his public image. Papelbon talking about going to the Yankees and wanting the absolute most amount of money--and presumably turning down lucrative multi-year, pre-arbitration deals in the process--is digging his own grave in Boston should he choose to exercise that right. Players have some say in how they are perceived when they leave Boston.

[/b] Good. Thanks Barry.

Again, with the negativity. You say that the last few years of being a Sox fan has been second only to Sex in terms of its enjoyability, yet you act like you're trapped in 1992.

I brought this up in another thread and Kilo created another thread too. It's a worthwhile discussion but it is already happening...

Pedro in 1999 and 2000 is the most spectacular display of baseball that I could imagine. It was similar in it's dominance to Bonds' seasons. In 2000 he had a .7373 WHIP, the best single-season WHIP in history. He has the best career WHIP of a non-reliever and non-starter born after 1900 (1.0511), and even with those caveats he is 6TH on the all time list, just ahead of Christie Matthewson, Walter Johnson and Mordecai "Three Finger" Brown who didn't pitch in 1999. Pretty damn good company. In 2000 he was also 4th ALL TIME in H/9 6th ALL TIME in K/BB 9th ALL TIME in K/9 (he also holds 2nd ALL TIME for 1999) 2nd ALL TIME in adjusted ERA+ (behind someone born in 1880) virtually unhittable. Electric pinpoint closer stuff with no fear and plenty of gas, game after game after game. In 1999 he had a series of games that went: 11K 15K 11K 15K 17K 14K 12K 12K In those 8 games he went 7-1 with 62 IP, 107 K, 8 BB, 1.16 ERA, OBP .201, OPS .431. I'm sorry if you didn't get to see him play much. He was truly spectactular.

Bowden is 22, Clay 24. We'll see how Bowden feels in 2 years if he's arguably the best pitcher at AAA and has no clear path to Boston. I agree that he shouldn't whine, but I think he actually articulated himself well and wasn't really whining. Just frustrated with the hand as it has played itself out.

I hate it that Gameday is a few minutes ahead of the mlb.com gamecast.

Gigantic meltdown. 6 runs in 2 innings? doubtful. Kilo, your prediction was wrong.

This is f***ing weak.

Why would Rollins look pissed about that? I mean, it hurts to get hit, but his team increased its odds of winning.

Always making predictions Kilo. Yes, there is doubt about the final score of this game. It may very well end up 7-6 but it still needs to be played.

Nice Lugo. EDIT: Bard possibly could have had that...

Clearly you do. The result is a board that is less interesting, less analytical, and less informative.