example1

It wasn't about you. However you did write a post the other day complaining about having to go to the game instead of getting to watch it at home, "cozy and warm". I thought that was pretty weak too, but no... not you in particular.

It was obvious on television, especially later in the game. It was pathetic. Such silver-spoon fans, with their $200m team and their yearly playoff apperances, not even willing to sit through a cold night to watch a playoff game. I wish it was just about the cold, but I've seen empty seats in that place all year.

You're right that it is suitable for getting to the playoffs so far. My problem is that it doesn't really give them wiggle room if any of their other pitchers struggle. When we expect slightly above average that's probably what we will get, with little chance that his stuff will be useable (predictable) in the playoffs.

I live in Portland, Oregon. We kind of share a media market with Seattle... the M's are our 'local' team. People here don't believe they are right on the verge of being a contender. The Angels are a very, very good team. The Rangers put up a good season and have a pitching staff many others would desire, prospects to add, plus Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, etc.,

As long as the Rangers also have injuries and don't make off-season acquisitions. It seems to me that the Rangers would have good reason to go after John Lackey who would take his WAR and move them to TEX an dprovide some stability at the top end of that good rotation. The Mariners overplayed their X W-L by TEN GAMES this year. They have some good players but they've made some bad moves the past few years that set them back further than their slightly-over .500 finish and previous mediocrity might indicate. They're not really a young team just waiting for their core to gel. They need to get that core first.

I'm not sure I know this one way or the other. I assume that, like most players, he wants $$ first and to play for a competitive team a close second. Given the choice, I'm betting he would take the $

The answer is that the player and the team, unable to reach agreement about contract, split ways and the team that deals him early gets a huge return. 5-6 prospects including Buchholz is a huge, franchise-shifting move. 5-6 prospects including Dice-K is a huge return. I haven't heard any mention that Felix is willing to take a discount to stay in Seattle, or even that he's very interested in signing a longterm deal to stay with the team that isn't super competitive. Securing Felix for 8 years/$160million would be a nice move for Seattle, they would have their pitcher long term, but there would be a ton of risk and even if he's Felix, he's still only good for 6-10 WAR depending on the (very good) season. Seattle can't afford to have $20m wrapped up in that many years of an injured pitcher. Boston could, at least a little bit better. I think it is similar to the Papelbon situation. Papelbon wants the money he would get in a FA spending spree. The Sox, it appears, aren't going to pay him FA money to close for them, even if he is really good. I'm sensing--from Theo's comments about Felix being the one guy he would start a franchise with--that he would be willing to pay big money (i.e., Teixeira money) to secure Felix longterm and to get him. I'm also assuming that Theo is smart enough to not spend lots of time on a deal that has no way of ever coming about, and that when he says they were "close" to some big deals involving lots of prospects, he means it. He doesn't tend to misspeak.

I brought up Halladay somewhere in the past few days. I could see them pursuing him over a guy like Lackey, as his money would be off the books next year with lots and lots of other guys, he's a better pitcher than Lackey and he would give them a good shot to win in 2010, their last go-round with guys like Ortiz, Lowell and maybe Beckett. It makes sense to me, though not for Buchholz, Kelly or Westmoreland (IMO).

Well, to make it official, we should probably say that we are wishful thinking, based on Theo's quote and the rumored (and logical) interest in Felix. The quotes I posted earlier and reports from both Seattle and Boston indicate the Sox probably talked heavily with Seattle about him. There was also the supposed list of prospects that the M's could choose 5 players from: Clay Buchholz Daniel Bard Michael Bowden Justin Masterson Nick Hagadone Josh Reddick Yamaico Navarro Felix Doubront http://www.nesn.com/2009/08/report-red-sox-offered-buchholz-bard-bowden-for-felix-hernandez.html To me that sounds like more than the FO would have been willing to give up, especially while also losing Buchholz. My Dice-K speculation is about looking at options other than Buchholz and the value of the pieces involved. If we're going to evaluate any potential deals it is best to have a baseline value for the pieces we're talking about. I'm intentionally conservative about my projections so I reduce accusations of overvaluing the pieces the Sox send over. It seems realistic to me. The only question is whether the Mariners are open to trading Felix Hernandez--open to thinking about him as a value rather than as a player/person. *Side note: has anyone seen the ESPN films movie called "Kings Ransom" about the trade of Wayne Gretzky? The Kings just kept asking for Gretzky and made it known that they would pay almost any price to get him. Inevitably it made sense for the Oilers owner to sell him to LA for a shitload of cash because he wanted to become the highest paid player and was approaching FA in a year or two. It is interesting because the Kings were just tenacious and didn't take no for an answer.

Going back to these quotes from the post-trade deadline Seattle Times article: http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/marinersblog/2009583039_report_red_sox_discussed_packa.html I would be shocked if they didn't actually revisit this in the offseason. I discussed this with a700 during the season, but what about Felix for Daisuke (plus): First, their current contracts: Dice-K: There may be some additional incentive $$ too but he is set to earn $8m, $8m, and $10m for the next 3 seasons. ($26m/3 years) Felix: I would guess that next year he'll get at least $9m in arbitration, and at least $10m the season after that. Both of those figures would put him near the top for 5th and 6th year players who sign consecutive arbitration deals. ($19m/2 years) Wins Above Replacement (WAR) for Felix and Dice-K for the length of their contracts, assuming that Dice-K is healthy (cue Jacko, cue ORS-Jacko chart) http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0) [Table] Player | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | WAR TOTAL | $$ TOTAL | $$/Win Matsuzaka | 3.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | (3.1) | (3.1) | (2.6) | 8.8 | $26 million | $2.95m/Win Felix | 4.1 | 3.9 | 6.9 | (6.9) | (6.9) | (7.3) FA | 13.8 | $19 million | $1.37m/Win [/Table] Clearly it is in Seattle's interest to keep Felix if it's Dice for Felix straight up. Both financially and win-wise. Now, let's suppose that the Sox include, say 4 other prospects: Michael Bowden (23), Josh Reddick (22), Lars Anderson (22), Stolmy Pimentel (19) I'll assume that two of these guys turn into regulars, but conservatively... [table] NAME | 2010 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2010 | WAR Bowden | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 11.0 Reddick | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | FA | 9.0 Anderson | AAA | .5 | .5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | FA | FA | FA | 7.5 Pimentel | AA | AA | AAA | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | FA | 6.0 [/table] TOTAL: 33.5 WAR To figure out how much these players will cost, I'll again be conservative, and assume roughly MLB minimum each minor league season. $2m total for all players in their first 3 years, then a reasonable $6m total each over the next three years: Bowden: $8m, Reddick: $8m, Anderson: $8.3m, Pimentel: $9m. TOTAL : $33.3m, $994,000 per-added win To summarize: Dice-K, Bowden, Reddick, Anderson and Pimenel would cost $59.3m for 42.3 WAR, over 28 player-seasons, 25 of them cost controlled. That's $1.4m/Win. Felix gives $19m for 13.8 Wins over 2 player-seasons at ($1.37m/win). All of the above is done quite conservatively: it assumes none of the players (including Dice-K) have any sort of breakout season. It assumes that Felix produces like he did this year (near Cy Young quality), rather than regressing at all over the next two years. It also assumes that Felix only makes $19m in arbitration the next two seasons. I think the price in prospects and Dice-K would be worth it if they get Felix without moving Buchholz. Beckett becomes a FA after 2010. They could try to resign him for 2011 but they would be confident in having Hernandez (25), Lester (27) and Buchholz (26) as a top 3, with two of them cost controlled, all of them young and nasty, probably through their primes. When Theo talks about "a deal that could provide maximum impact" I think something like that would be it.

I have to admit, the .336 OBP he's had since 2007 makes me think he's a hitter who might have cracked this lineup consistently in the past few years. Granted, Gagne was a horrible acquisition, but they traded guys they weren't going to use much most likely. Murphy was the best of the bunch.

His excuse for being roughly as good as Ian Kennedy in your mind? I don't know. That's a you problem. I imagine Tazawa is pretty happy with his situation and his milb performance at this point.

Is that the same Ian Kennedy that you rated ahead of Jon Lester in Gom's "rate the prospects" thread awhile ago? I bet you've seen about 4 innings of Tazawa pitching. At the very most, you're drawing from his first season of professional baseball. Give it a chance to materialize and then spread your phenomenal knowledge.

Most of these Dodgers have limited experience vs. Pedro. Brilliant choice.

Ditto. a700 knows hes one of my favorite posters, I hope!

http://www.talksox.com/forum/red-sox-minor-leagues/507-jon-lester-8.html#post162559

Really? You're not sold that he'll be an improvement over Brad Penny or John Smoltz or crappy Dice-K? I think he will.

Just for S & G: Ellsbury Pedroia V-Mart Youkilis Abreu Ortiz Lowell Drew Lowrie Ortiz is really the one I'm about done with. In this league the DH should really be a middle of the order guy, not someone you squeeze in when you have to to keep the L/R line moving. I criticized the Yankees when their 200m payroll couldn't give them a great DH, and I'm criticizing the Sox now. His .744 OPS in innings 7-9 (335/408) and .212/.298/.418/.716 line against LHP all season tell me that he is a black hole in late innings when managers put in lefty relievers.

Yeah I read that too and chuckled. "Even worse" than 2009! No! 2007: RS (867), RA (657) 2008: RS (845), RA (694) 2009: RS (872), RA (736) I think that adding Dice-K and Buchholz to this rotation will do wonders for their record. I'm not sure either will have the impact to win the WS necessarily, but they should be roughly where they are in 2009, at least. I predict that Dice-K will have a more-than triumphant return next year. I thought he actually looked really good in his final few starts, a lot more streamlined and his delivery appeared more compact, like he was pitching in a tunnel. This guy is an impact pitcher, that's what they signed him for and he's shown definite flashes of it throughout his career. Theo says the expectation (not the hope) is that Dice-K shows up in tremendous shape ready to perform at the highest level. He has a short rope in terms of his laziness, so I hope for his sake that he keeps his s*** together and comes back as a highly paid professional would.